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Duke vs. Houston: 3 stats that will decide Final Four showdown
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The Final Four will commence on Saturday night in San Antonio with a pair of high-profile matchups featuring No. 1 seeds.
In the nightcap, Duke will take on Houston for the right to play Auburn or Florida for all the marbles. The Blue Devils and Cougars own the nation’s 2 longest winning streaks, but one will come to an end on Saturday night.
This story will look to identify 3 key areas that could decide the outcome of this game. We’ll dive into statistical profiles for both teams, looking at strengths and weaknesses on both ends of the floor.
Note: Of course, it goes without saying that 3-point percentage will have a huge impact on who wins this game. Teams who won the 3-point percentage battle have won 73.4% of NCAA Tournament games in 2024-25. Below, you’ll find analysis on some other battleground areas that Duke and Houston will be looking to control in this contest.
Duke vs. Houston: Final Four preview
Here are 3 stats that will decide Duke vs. Houston:
Will Duke’s offense be efficient enough?
Duke had one of the most dominant regular seasons in recent memory. Of the 38 games the Blue Devils have played so far this season, they’ve only lost 3. There have also only been 10 games total in which Duke either lost or won by 10 points or fewer.
When you look at those 10 games, a clear pattern emerges: offensive efficiency. Duke has a true shooting percentage of 64% in 28 games this season where it has won by 11+. But in the 10 that have been relatively close? Duke’s true shooting percentage dips down to 58%. For context, that’s the difference between the No. 1 most-efficient offense and the No. 51 most-efficient offense in the country.
I cite true shooting percentage because Duke’s efficiency dips across the board in these lackluster performances. True shooting percentage accounts for efficiency from 2-point range, beyond the arc and at the charity stripe. In all 3 areas, Duke’s offense has lagged in games that were decided by 10 points or less.
That’s particularly interesting as Duke will be playing a Houston team that has, by some measures, the best defense in the country. The Cougars are top-15 nationally in 2-point and 3-point efficiency defense. They rank No. 1 in schedule-adjusted defensive rating, per KenPom. This is likely the best defense Duke will face all season — how will it respond?
Can Duke impose its will on the offensive glass?
A huge indicator of Duke’s success this season has been its performance on the offensive glass. The Blue Devils were largely dominant in that area this season. They ranked No. 1 in ACC play with an offensive rebounding rate north of 35%. They weren’t quite as good during nonconference play, which led to a couple of losses.
Per BartTorvik, Duke had an offensive rebounding rate below 30% in just 7 regular-season games this year. The Blue Devils went 3-4 in those 7 contests, picking up losses to Kentucky, Kansas and Clemson.
It’s worth noting Duke has been under that threshold during 3 of 4 NCAA Tournament games and it hasn’t been a significant problem yet. However, that might not be the case in a low-possession game against a slow-tempo Houston team. And as mentioned above, the Cougars have an elite defense — Duke will need to maximize any potential opportunities on the offensive glass in order to have an efficient night.
Defensive rebounding is far from a weakness for Houston, but it’s not a particularly loud strength, either. The Cougars rank 121st nationally in defensive rebounding rate. They were 3rd in Big 12 play during the regular season as their numbers ticked up a bit as the year went on. But Houston is not a particularly big team. No one over 6-8 plays significant minutes. Given that Duke has an incredibly-physical frontcourt that features 6-9 Cooper Flagg and 7-2 Khaman Maluach, this is an area of the game that Duke needs to dominate.
Will Houston’s rim defense translate?
Despite Houston not having tremendous size in its front court, the Cougars have one of the best interior defenses in the country. Kelvin Sampson’s scheme and Houston’s overall toughness and experience has resulted in a defense that ranks 5th nationally in block rate. And it’s not just blocks — Houston is forcing a surprising number of misses. Per CBB Analytics, Houston opponents are shooting just 58.6% at the rim this season. That’s almost 4% below the national average.
Joseph Tugler is a huge reason for Houston’s impressive rim defense. Per KenPom, his block rate of 12.5% ranks 7th nationally. Tugler typically plays the least of any of Houston’s starters, but the Cougars will need his reported 7-6 wingspan to deter Duke at the rim in this game. The Blue Devils usually excel when they get close to the basket — it’s a big part of their offense. Duke’s rim finishing percentage is at 67.1% for the full season, which is about 5% higher than the national average. Something has to give.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
