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Yes, this is the first Final Four since 2008 where all 4 No. 1 seeds made it to the national semifinals. But also, perhaps more surprisingly, this is the first Final Four in 10 years where more than 2 1-seeds made it. That seems more interesting to me.
Usually we see 1 or 2 great-but-flawed teams get upset by lower seeds somewhere along the journey to the Final Four. This season, not only did we not have any major upsets, but we didn’t really have any of those “great but flawed” teams on the 1-seed line. We just have great teams from here on out.
We have a somewhat unprecedented show of strength in San Antonio this year. Four of the 10 best teams in KenPom’s history, which dates to the 1996-97 season, will take part in the Final Four inside the Alamodome. Duke is the second-best team in KenPom’s history. Houston is No. 6. Florida is the No. 8. Auburn checks in at No. 10.
The level of basketball should be amazing on Saturday.
Below, you’ll find Part 2 of our betting preview for the 2025 Final Four. Part 1 can be found here.
No. 1 Duke vs. No. 1 Houston betting odds
- Spread: Duke -5.5
- Total: 136.5
- Money line: Duke -250, Houston +200
Odds via BetMGM
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How to bet the Duke-Houston spread
The Elite Eight win over Alabama was really simple. (And that’s not said in such a way as to diminish anything Alabama did this season. The Tide had a spectacular run.) Duke was more talented, with more NBA-level guys, going against a team that couldn’t consistently defend screening actions.
Coming off a record-setting 3-point shooting performance against BYU, few expected Alabama to light the Duke defense up, but most reasonably expected Alabama to be able to hang around. The Tide scored 65 points.
All game long, the Tide were having to hit difficult shots while covered just to keep from falling completely out of the game. Duke’s size was a major factor. The Crimson Tide could not get drive-and-kick 3s — a big part of their offense — and they struggled on the offensive glass. On the few occasions when we saw Alabama get comfortable looks, they usually came off a turnover.
While Alabama had to work for just about everything, Duke got easy bucket after easy bucket after easy bucket. Multiple times in the first half, Duke got an open layup from slipping an off-ball screen. Alabama constantly gave up dribble penetration off loose ball-screen coverage. Khaman Maluach ate the Tide up inside, with 14 points on 6-of-7 shooting. And though Kon Knueppel hit tough shots, oftentimes they were after he took his man down to the low block and had a 1-on-1 under the basket.
Duke averaged 1.232 points per possession.
Alabama’s defensive performance wasn’t entirely surprising, though. The Tide have been a mediocre defensive team all season and the Blue Devils have been trucking everyone. Arizona, Duke’s Sweet 16 opponent, gave up 1.493 points per possession to Duke.
The combination of size and next-level talent is overwhelming.
At the start of the tournament, The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie projected 3 Duke players to be taken in the NBA Draft lottery — Cooper Flagg at No. 1, Knueppel at No. 6, and Maluach at No. 14. Vecenie also had Duke’s other 2 starters being drafted in the second round.
Duke beat Alabama by 20 and Flagg scored 16 points on 16 shots. If you’d told Nate Oats before the game that Flagg would shoot 6-for-16 with 3 free throw attempts and 4 turnovers, Alabama’s head coach would’ve been giddy.
Knueppel’s late-season accession has made this team nearly unstoppable. When Flagg went out of the ACC Tournament, Knueppel went off. He had 28 points to beat Georgia Tech, scored 17 against North Carolina, then scored 18 against Louisville in the ACC title game. He had 20 against Arizona in the regional semifinal and 21 against Alabama.
Flagg also had 30 in that Sweet 16 game. If those 2 guys are combining for 50, your team is cooked. If you took both players and put them on the Washington Wizards or the Charlotte Hornets, they’d be the first and second options on offense. No other college program has that.
As Houston has ripped off 17 straight victories, the defense has shut down top options game in and game out. The win over Tennessee in the Elite Eight was the perfect example of Houston’s ability to short-circuit offenses by suffocating high-usage players. Chaz Lanier scored 17 points, but took 18 shots to get there. And Zakai Zeigler was limited to 5 points on 1-of-9 shooting. Only 1 other player scored more than 4.
Purdue’s No. 2 scorer went 2-for-7 for 7 points against Houston. Gonzaga’s No. 2 scorer went 5-for-16. Arizona’s No. 2 scorer went 5-for-11 in the Big 12 Tournament and 1-for-6 in a regular-season loss to Houston. BYU’s No. 2 went 2-for-9. Kansas’s No. 2 went 3-for-6 for 7 points against Houston. Texas Tech’s No. 2 didn’t play against Houston in the second regular-season meeting and Tech’s No. 1 shot 6-for-18.
Per KenPom, Houston has the No. 1 defense in the country. The Cougars rank second in effective field goal rate allowed, fifth in 2-point shot defense, 13th in 3-point shot defense, fifth in block rate, and 20th in turnover rate. They wall off the easy stuff and force teams to take shots late in the clock.
And they have an option for every kind of go-to guy. Milos Uzan (6-4) and LJ Cryer (6-1) are outstanding perimeter defenders. Joseph Tugler (6-8) leads the nation in defensive box plus/minus. Terrance Arceneaux (6-6) is a major weapon off the bench. According to EvanMiya, lineups featuring Uzan, Tugler, and Arceneaux have the best observed defensive efficiency of any 3-man combination in the country.
That 3-man group also has an observed offensive rating of 120.9, so it’s a group that Houston can deploy for long stretches.
Swapping Uzan for Cryer gives us the fifth-best 3-man lineup by observed defensive efficiency, per EvanMiya.
Houston’s improvement on the offensive end of the floor has keyed this Final Four run. The Cougars drill 39.7% of their triples — the third-best mark in the country. They shot 34.8% from 3 last season. That obviously has to continue, but nothing Houston does on offense will matter if the Cougars can’t slow down Duke’s big 2.
Houston has seen 7 top-20 offenses (by KenPom rating) in its last 11 games. Houston’s second-round and Sweet 16 opponents had top-10 offenses. The Cougs have been tested.
The Blue Devils have not.
Duke has only faced 3 top-20 defenses (by KenPom rating) all season. It lost 2 of those 3 games. The last top-20 defense Duke faced was Clemson on Feb. 8, and the Blue Devils scored just 71 points that day.
Could Duke roll once again? Sure. But the stylistic shift from a team that can’t stop 2-man actions to a bruising, unyielding team with the best adjusted defensive rating in the last 3 years could be a jarring one.
Could it take some time for Duke to find its footing? Absolutely. At bet365, Houston +2.5 in the first half is priced at +100. Given the value there, that’s certainly worth consideration.
But Houston also hasn’t been blown out at any point this season. The Cougs just don’t let games get away from them. The 4 losses this year have come by 5 points, 5 points, 3 points, and 1 point. Each of the last 3 losses came in overtime. Given Duke’s lack of exposure to top-flight defenses and a 75.7 PPG average against the elite defenses it has faced, backing Houston on the full spread is a viable option, too. Especially if the line keeps moving up.
Bet Houston +5.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
How to bet the Duke-Houston point total
KenPom projects 134 total points. EvanMiya projects 136. Bart Torvik projects just 129.
Here’s the thing: I don’t think we can totally discount Duke’s ability to just bulldoze opponents. At the end of the day, elite offense beats elite defense. With a 130.1 adjusted offensive rating entering the Final Four, Duke is tracking toward the best offensive season in KenPom history (since 1996-97).
So, while I think Houston can make it a 40-minute fight, I’m going to hedge a bit and opt for a team-specific total rather than the game total.
The Cougars don’t want to open things up and let Duke find a rhythm on offense. Houston’s best chance to win is in a grind-it-out style game. If their defense can hold up against Duke, perhaps this is something like a 69-66 Houston win. If the Blue Devils just have too much firepower, this could turn into a 77-67 kind of game.
Houston’s team total is a little low across the board. DraftKings has it set at 65.5, with a -120 price on the over. Giving the Cougs just 1 extra point bumps the odds to +100. That’s where I’m leaning.
If Duke’s stars are too good and the Blue Devils keep trucking, Houston has to score to catch up. For one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the country, there’s an avenue there to get points. LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan are both capable of popping off; the former had 30 in the second round and the latter had 22 in the Sweet 16.
Duke has held 4 of its last 5 opponents under 66.5 points. But the sample size against elite offenses is small. Duke has played 7 games against top-20 offenses (by KenPom rating) this season and has given up 71.6 points per game in those 7 contests. Kentucky, Illinois, Arizona and Auburn all cleared 66.5 points.
Bet Houston team total over 66.5 points (+100 via DraftKings)
Who to target in the Duke-Houston player prop market
Target Cooper Flagg’s assist number. At bet365, more than 4.5 assists for Duke’s star freshman has -110 odds. Houston has to try and slow down Flagg. Send bodies his way and hope to create turnovers. Flagg’s skill as a playmaker has punished teams for doing exactly that all season, but there’s just no other way to defend him. If you play him straight up, he’s going to beat your defense.
Flagg had just 3 assists against Alabama. But he had 7 against Arizona, 6 against Baylor, and 5 in 22 minutes against Mount St. Mary’s. Remove the 15 minutes he played before leaving the Georgia Tech game with an injury, and Flagg has at least 5 assists in 8 of his last 12 games. He averages 5.3 assists per game on the season.
Bet Cooper Flagg over 4.5 assists (-110 via bet365)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
