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Kentucky put on serious upset alert vs. 14-seed Troy in March Madness opener
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Kentucky is preparing for its NCAA Tournament opener and first trip to March Madness under head coach Mark Pope. However, the Wildcats will have to be on their guard to thwart off a potential upset bid.
In the opening round, Kentucky — the 3-seed in the Midwest Region — will face 14-seed Troy on Friday night. It’s a familiar positioning for the Wildcats, but they are hoping to avoid a familiar performance come tip-off.
According to college basketball analytics specialist Evan Miyakawa, there is a 42% chance that at least one 14-seed registers an upset of a 3-seed in this year’s tournament. Kentucky is, unfortunately, the most liable candidate with Troy registering a 20% chance of delivering the upset and advancing. Miyakawa notes Troy’s odds “would be much lower” if Pope and the Wildcats were at full strength.
Even with John Calipari off to Arkansas, simply reading those numbers has to be a bit gut-wrenching for Kentucky fans. In their past 2 trips to the Big Dance as a 3-seed or better, the Wildcats have gone 0-2 to open the tournament with losses to 15-seed St. Peter’s (2022) and last year to 14-seed Oakland. Kentucky did beat 11-seed Providence in 2023, but the Wildcats were a 6-seed then.
Heading into Friday’s tip-off, Kentucky is still an 11-point favorite to advance per bet365. Check out the best new Kentucky betting apps ahead of the game, and be prepared to track all the Final Four odds throughout the NCAA Tournament.
Paul Harvey lives in Atlanta and covers SEC football.
