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Kentucky vs. Tennessee: Predictions, bets bets for Sweet 16 showdown

Published: Mar 28, 2025 · 12:12 PM EDT

Kentucky will take on Tennessee in the Sweet 16 on Friday night.

The all-SEC battle will mark the 3rd time these programs have met so far this season. The Wildcats won the first 2 meetings (more on that later), but it’s the Vols who find themselves favored in Vegas for this final matchup.

Kentucky vs. Tennessee best bets, predictions

Lines via bet365:

Spread: Kentucky +4.5 (-110) | Tennessee -4.5 (-110)
Total: Over 144.5 (-110) | Under 144.5 (-110)

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Here’s breakdown of the spread and total for this game:

Betting the spread in Kentucky vs. Tennessee

It’s worth noting off the top that Kentucky and Tennessee have met twice already this season, with the Wildcats winning both times. And yet, the Vols are fairly-significant favorites in the betting market for this game.

One reason is the market is likely forecasting some shooting regression for both teams. Kentucky shot 50% from 3-point range in both previous games against the Vols. Tennessee also shot extremely poorly from 3-point range. In the game in Knoxville, Zakai Zeigler and Chaz Lanier combined to shoot 4-of-21 from downtown and the Vols still only lost by 5. Lanier by himself went just 3-for-17 from beyond the arc across both games.

One big advantage Tennessee had in both games against UK was the offensive glass. The Vols created tons of extra positions as they were +15 in offensive rebounding over the 2 games. The shotmaking variance in those games was drastic, though, so Tennessee was unable to take advantage.

When looking at their season-long statistical profiles, Kentucky’s defense is the only unit that could be described as weak. The Wildcats were 13th in the SEC this season in adjusted defensive rating, per KenPom. They were also outside of the top-45 nationally for the full year. Tennessee, meanwhile, had the No. 1 defense by adjusted efficiency. Kentucky’s offense was better than Tennessee’s, it’s worth noting, but the gap is much smaller than it is on the defensive side. With that being said, Kentucky’s defense has been trending upward lately (more on that below).

There’s one more big red flag in Kentucky’s profile: defensive havoc. The Wildcats were dead last in the SEC this season at defensive turnover rate. They just aren’t disruptive enough on the perimeter. Since Tennessee also has an edge on the glass, there’s a very narrow pathway toward Kentucky keeping this game close: poor shooting performances from the Vols. That’s what we got in the first 2 meetings between these teams, but I’d bet against it happening for a 3rd time.

Pick: Tennessee -4.5 (-110 via bet365)

RELATED: Looking to bet this game in Kentucky but not sure where to start? Here’s Saturday Down South’s full breakdown of all the new Kentucky betting apps on the market in 2025!

Betting the total in Kentucky vs. Tennessee

The total in this game is fascinating because of the difference in pace between these 2 offenses. Kentucky is 26th in adjusted pace, according to KenPom, while the Vols land at No. 346 in that metric. That makes Tennessee one of the slowest teams in the country.

During the regular season, both games were played at something closer to Tennessee’s pace than Kentucky’s. The over went 1-1 when these teams met. In the game that went under, Tennessee managed to score 1 point per possession but only totaled 64 points due to the slow pace (and a 3-for-18 night from 3-point range).

Kentucky’s defense has been very good down the stretch, which is another thing pointing toward the under. Since Feb. 8, Kentucky’s defense ranks 10th nationally in adjusted efficiency, per BartTorvik. From the start of the season through Feb. 7, the Wildcats ranked 83rd in the same stat — so the improvement seems to be real and significant.

On the other hand, Tennessee’s offense has been elite lately. The Vols have registered 7 consecutive games with at least a 120 schedule-adjusted offensive rating, per BartTorvik. In terms of raw offensive efficiency, Tennessee has been nearly unbeatable when it scores at least 1.1 points per possession. The Vols have just 3 such losses this season — none of which were to Kentucky — when they hit that benchmark.

Ultimately, my lean is to the under here. Tennessee’s defense makes it difficult for teams to play at the pace they want to play. We saw that bear out in both games against Kentucky and against some other high-tempo SEC teams this season. There’s also this: When Tennessee is facing a total of more than 144 points this season, the under is 8-2.

Pick: Under 144.5 (-110 via bet365)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.