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The madness of March upsets is why so many watch, but a chalky first weekend isn’t necessarily a bad thing, especially for basketball fans who don’t just tune into college basketball one month a year. When chalk advances, we are spared the indignities of 20-point Sweet 16 slipper shattering beatdowns. Instead, a playbill of marquee matchups litters the Sweet 16 landscape, including Friday, when the lowest seeded team to take the floor in regional play will be 6-seed Ole Miss, a battle-tested group of grizzled veterans led by Chris Beard, 1 of 9 coaches in the Sweet 16 who has already taken at least 1 team to the Final Four.
With South Regional play in Atlanta and Midwest Regional play in Indianapolis on tap, here are 4 matchups that will define Friday’s action in the Sweet 16.
South Regional
Here are the key matchups for each of the 2 games in Atlanta:
(6) Ole Miss vs. (2) Michigan State (7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Matchup: Ole Miss shooters vs. Michigan State’s suffocating perimeter defense
Ole Miss blitzed their way through the first and second rounds behind tremendous shooting, connecting on 19 of 39 3-point attempts in wins over North Carolina and Iowa State in Milwaukee. Ole Miss features 6 shooters who have made 20 or more 3-pointers this season, and all of them shoot over 31% from bonus land.
The Rebels are 6-5 against other Sweet 16 teams this season, making them one of the most battle-tested teams still playing. They won’t rattle against the physicality and tenacious defense of Michigan State. The question is will they make shots? No defense in America defended the 3 better than the Spartans this season. Michigan State held opponents to just 27.8% from deep, helping them win the B1G championship comfortably in the regular season. If Frankie Fidler, Tre Holloman, Jeremy Fears, Jaden Adkins, and Jase Richardson guard the arc, the Rebels’ run may end on Friday night in Atlanta.
(1) Auburn vs. (5) Michigan (9:39 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Matchup: Johni Broome vs. Vlad Goldin, of course
Michigan is a unique scout, with the 2 big man setup of Danny Wolf and Vladislav Goldin being the suns around which Dusty May’s outstanding Wolverine offense orbits. The Wolverines lack anything beyond average guard play, but they score efficiently anyway because Vlad Goldin is clinical at the rim (9th in college basketball on FG percentage in the paint) and Danny Wolf is a tremendous passer (22.9% assist rate) who hits the myriad cutters May has in constant motion around Goldin underneath. It’s as challenging a scout as there is in the sport, outside of probably Florida, who has Michigan’s big men talent but combines it with elite guard play.
Auburn, of course, has Johni Broome, our vote for National Player of the Year. Plodding, stationary bigs haven’t bothered Broome much this season, and Broome’s ability to score inside and pass (20.0 assist rate) is the perfect antidote to Michigan’s “no rim 2s, prevent 3-point attempts” defense. Broome operating 1-on-1 hasn’t happened much this year, but the way Tahaad Pettiford and Denver Jones punished perimeter defenses in the first and second round, it could Friday night. Ultimately, that means Goldin, who has Final Four experience, battling Broome, who would like to end a storied career at the Final Four, is the matchup that should define the winner on Friday night.
Midwest Regional
Here are the key matchups for each of the 2 games in Indianapolis:
(3) Kentucky vs. (2) Tennessee (7:39 p.m. ET, TBS)
The Matchup: Lamont Butler vs. Chaz Lanier
Is the third time the charm for the Volunteers against Kentucky?
Lanier was sensational for Tennessee in the first and second rounds, averaging 24.5 points per game and shooting a ridiculous 10-18 from beyond the arc in wins over Wofford and UCLA. He’ll now get a third shot at Kentucky, who has done a great job at limiting him in 2 wins over Tennessee thus far this season. Lanier has scored just 12.5 points per game, connecting on just 2-11 attempts from 3-point land, in those Tennessee’s losses. Lamont Butler only played in one of those games, but in that game, he traced Lanier’s movements on defense and limited the Vols’ star to 0-7 from deep.
Lanier must play better on Friday night for Tennessee to return to the Elite Eight for the second-consecutive season. For his part, Lanier and the Vols better defend the arc well, too. Kentucky has made 50% — yes 50% — of its 48 3-point attempts in 2 games against the Vols this season. If Kentucky shoots well again and slows Lanier, Mark Pope and Big Blue Nation will reach their first Elite Eight this decade.
(1) Houston vs. (4) Purdue (10:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
The Matchup: Braden Smith vs. Houston’s ball pressure
The lone Sweet 16 matchup on Friday missing a team from the SEC features a lethal Purdue offense against the nation’s best defense in Houston. The Cougars turn teams over on 21.5% of possessions, ranking 18th in college basketball. They also use a variety of tactics to blitz and top lock ball screens to extend possessions and limit dribble penetration. Purdue All-American point guard Braden Smith is the ultimate pressure breaker, ranking second in the country in assist rate (43.8%) while consistently using a quick first step and the threat of his jump shot (38% from three) to create dribble penetration.
In other words, something has to give on Friday night. If Smith can get into the paint and create opportunities for Fletcher Loyer to knock down shots and for Trey Kaufman-Renn, one of college basketball’s best cutters, the Boilermakers have a chance. If Houston turns Purdue over, Houston will move a step closer to another Final Four under Kelvin Sampson.
Predicted Friday Winners: Michigan State, Auburn, Tennessee, Houston
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
