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On Thursday, I broke down my betting card for the SEC’s first-round games on the opening day of the NCAA Tournament. Now, let’s take a look at the remaining SEC teams that will hit the court on Friday.
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Baylor (12:15 p.m. ET, CBS)
I’m approaching this game with the prospect of overtime in mind. Baylor enters the tournament with 5 losses in its last 8 games. Those losses have come by an average of 3.4 points. The Bears have already played 3 overtime games this season and a double-overtime affair. They play at one of the slowest paces of any team in the field, yet they have a top-20 offensive efficiency thanks to elite offensive rebounding.
Neither team defends the 3 with any degree of consistency, and both have backcourts capable of going off.
Baylor has completely oriented itself around guard play and small-ball lineups following an injury to forward Josh Ojianwuna. Rob Wright, Jeremy Roach, Jayden Nunn, and VJ Edgecombe have all scored 20 in a game for Baylor this season. All but Nunn have done so multiple times. Edgecombe had 20 against Tennessee, 23 against Houston, and 30 against Kansas State. Roach also has 4 career NCAA Tournament games with at least 15 points.
Meanwhile, Josh Hubbard can go nuclear whenever necessary. He has at least 24 points in 3 of his last 5 games. Of course, Hubbard was a lightning rod scorer last season too and was limited to 15 points on 18 shots in Mississippi State’s first-round loss to Michigan State. Baylor doesn’t have the same caliber of ball-stoppers.
The guards will be trading buckets.
Bet Mississippi State-Baylor point total over 144.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Robert Morris (12:40 p.m. ET, truTV)
The Crimson Tide play at the fastest tempo in college basketball, and their first-round opponent turns the basketball over on nearly 19% of its possessions. The Colonials rank No. 225 nationally in live-ball turnover percentage (10.1%) and love to crash the offensive glass. Alabama should have no issues kicking into high gear and getting out in the open floor.
But if the Crimson Tide are running and gunning, that also means a high-possession game for Robert Morris. The Colonials get to the free throw line at a strong rate and knock down 72% of those shots. They also get a ton of their points within the flow of their offense; 3 guys average at least 3 assists per game.
Alabama should be able to race away from Robert Morris, but something like a 92-72 game feels well within the realm of possibility. Of Alabama’s 33 opponents this season, 27 scored at least 73 points.
Bet Robert Morris team total over 71.5 (-110 via ESPN Bet)
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt (3:15 p.m. ET, truTV)
Bart Torvik, KenPom, and EvanMiya all have spread projections above the 3.5 points the Gaels are getting in this first-round matchup. Vandy doesn’t have a reliable defense, and it’ll try to speed up a Saint Mary’s team that plays to the beat of its own drum.
This season, only 5 programs have played at a slower tempo than Saint Mary’s. The Gaels have a top-10 defense according to KenPom, a group that runs opponents off the 3-point line and funnels them into bad 2s. They don’t foul and they don’t allow 3s. To beat them, you have to knock down low-percentage jump shots. Saint Mary’s is one of the best rebounding teams in the country, doesn’t turn the basketball over, and doesn’t provide transition opportunities to its opponents.
Prior to a 7-point loss to Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament, Saint Mary’s had won 8 straight and 17 of its previous 18. That stretch included a regular-season sweep of the Zags, who are rated as the ninth-best team in KenPom.
They’re led by 2-time WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis, who averages 14.3 points per game and 6.1 assists.
Vanderbilt is just trending in the wrong direction. The Commodores have lost 3 straight, in which they’ve given up at least 79 in every game. Arkansas, with 7 players, scored 90. Texas A&M scored 84 on the Commodores. Tennessee scored 81. Oklahoma put 97 (!!!) on them.
Bet Saint Mary’s -3.5 (-120 via ESPN Bet)
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 North Carolina (4:05 p.m. ET, TNT)
North Carolina took shot after shot after shot for 48 hours after sneaking into the tournament field, then it went out in Dayton and dropped 95 points on a San Diego State team whose defense ranked 15th in adjusted efficiency according to KenPom.
The Tar Heels doubled up on the Aztecs in the first half and led by as many as 40 points in the second half. The guards were outstanding. RJ Davis scored 26 points while drilling all 6 of his triples. Seth Trimble scored 16 on 5-of-10 shooting. Elliot Cadeau had 12 assists.
That’s now 9 wins in 11 games for the Tar Heels, who have only lost to Duke since Valentine’s Day. The 95 points they scored on Tuesday night marked the fifth time in the last 11 games they’ve topped 90.
Ole Miss, meanwhile, has dropped 5 of 8 heading into the tournament. The Rebels rank 31st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 23rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. But they are much more comfortable in tighter ball games.
Chris Beard’s group is 4-8 this season when giving up 80 points. It is 18-3 when holding teams under 80 points. Carolina has scored 80 in 7 of its last 11 games.
Bet North Carolina money line (-125 via ESPN Bet)
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Norfolk State (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)
This is a massive number and yet everyone seems to think the Gators will cover it. Nearly three-quarters of the ATS bets placed on this game at BetMGM are on Florida to cover. Is this the final chance to fade the Gators?
I did so in the SEC Tournament Championship Game and was made to look a fool. Tennessee couldn’t get easy offensive looks for long stretches and the Gators rolled to a 9-point victory.
Still, from 2016 through the 2023 NCAA Tournament, teams with 60% or more of the ATS bets covered just 43% of the time. That’s according to research from Evan Abrams.
Florida should handle the Spartans without having to do too much. Maybe the Gators are extra vanilla, content to keep everyone healthy ahead of a date with either Dan Hurley’s UConn or SEC peer Oklahoma.
EvanMiya has the Gators winning by 20. KenPom and Bart Torvik project 25-point wins. Florida has beaten 5 opponents this season by at least 30 points — including Tennessee — so we know the Gators are capable. I just don’t know if they’re willing to expend the energy in this spot.
Bet Norfolk State +28.5 (-110 via BetMGM)
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Troy (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
Kentucky’s leading scorer, Otega Oweh, has been held in check only 3 times this season. He was limited to 2 points at Alabama on Feb. 22, saddled with foul trouble and forced to endure a miserable shooting night. He scored just 4 points against Auburn a little over a week later, again limited by fouls. In the SEC Tournament loss to Alabama, Oweh scored just 8 points on 1-of-6 shooting with 5 turnovers.
In the games immediately following off nights, Oweh has scored 28 and 24 points while grabbing 14 rebounds. He took 21 shots in the game immediately after the first Alabama loss, and he knocked down 9 of his 11 shots following the Auburn result.
He was ultra-aggressive in both instances.
Troy, Kentucky’s first-round opponent in the Midwest Region, takes and misses a ton of 3s and it turns the ball over on nearly 20% of its possessions. Transition opportunities will be aplenty for a Kentucky team that loves to run, and Oweh should be playing with a head of steam against a team that doesn’t have a proven rim protector. I like getting plus value here on a P+R prop Oweh could clear just on his scoring alone.
Bet Otega Oweh total points+rebounds over 24.5 (+105 via ESPN Bet)
No. 8 UConn vs. No. 9 Oklahoma (9:25 p.m. ET, TNT)
Very little has been said, at least that I’ve noticed, about Oklahoma’s chances against the defending champs. The Huskies opened as a 4.5-point favorite and the line has pushed to 5.5 at some shops.
After a shaky month of play, Oklahoma has steadied itself in recent weeks. The Sooners shocked Mizzou and then won a tournament game in Nashville. They were another last-second bucket from Oweh away from advancing to the SEC Tournament quarterfinals.
Jeremiah Fears gives the Sooners a chance. He scored 31 points with 5 assists against Mizzou, scored 29 points in the first-round win over Georgia, then scored 28 points with 5 assists in the loss to Kentucky. He has at least 20 points in 11 games this season.
UConn’s inconsistency all season, combined with Fears’ ability to explode, lends a pretty high degree of variance in this 8-9 matchup. Oklahoma also beat some pretty stout teams prior to the start of SEC play — Arizona, Louisville, and Michigan all in neutral-site matchups.
The Huskies will find success scoring on the Sooners, but their defense leaves a ton of holes for OU to attack. UConn is 96th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. It gives up 35% on 3-pointers and sends teams to the free throw line at one of the highest rates in the country. Oklahoma lives at the foul line and makes nearly 80% as a team.
Fears and Jalon Moore will keep the Sooners within striking distance.
Bet Oklahoma +5.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
