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The Sweet 16 is here. While this year’s Final Four won’t feature a Cinderella from a mid-major, that doesn’t mean the appeal is gone. The top 4 seeds are all still standing, as are 3 of the 4 teams on the 2-seed line. The best teams in college basketball this season are still around, which means the regional semis and finals could produce some outstanding entertainment.
BYU and Alabama get the party rolling on Thursday. The Tide are 1 of 7 teams from the SEC that made the Sweet 16. Here’s how I’m betting on their games.
(Note: All odds via ESPN Bet unless otherwise noted)
2 Alabama vs. 6 BYU (Thursday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
Alabama -5.5 | Total: 175.5 | Money line: Alabama -215, BYU +180
Over the last 9 games involving Alabama that featured a point total at or above 170, the over has cashed 7 times. The market has a pretty good feel for when Alabama is going to score, and the Crimson Tide have largely done their job. In those 9 games, Alabama has averaged 95.6 points. The two times the under cashed, Alabama faced Kentucky and the Wildcats failed to hold up their end of the bargain.
The Tide have scored 170 points in their 2 NCAA Tournament games thus far. And that’s with Mark Sears shooting just 10 for 27 from the field. Alabama’s star guard has only made 1 of his 9 attempts from 3 in the tournament, and the Tide are still rolling on the offensive end. They’re averaging 1.223 points per possession in the tourney.
Now, they face a BYU team that just gave up 12 triples and 89 regulation points to Wisconsin. Badger guard John Tonje scored 37 points on the Cougar defense.
Maybe Sears gets rolling. But Alabama has other ways to hurt BYU even if its star guard continues to search for his shot. The Cougars give opponents 3s on 45% of their shots and give up 35% shooting on those attempts (248th nationally). The defense rebounds well, but it doesn’t force turnovers nor does it have an elite shot-blocker. Center Keba Keita averages 1.2 blocks a game, but also averages 4.4 fouls per 40 minutes. Alabama’s rim-and-3 style will put a ton of stress on Keita to defend without fouling.
In the second round, Alabama showed an ability to control the glass against a larger Saint Mary’s team and thus control the pace of play. BYU’s M.O. is to jack 3s and attack the basket a lot like Alabama does. If this turns into an up-and-down game, there should be a ton of possessions. If BYU tries to counter, Alabama might still be able to dictate terms with its frontcourt size.
The Tide are going to score. I’m looking at the Alabama team total here.
Bet Alabama team total over 88.5 (-155 via BetMGM)
1 Florida vs. 4 Maryland (Thursday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS)
Florida -6.5 | Total: 156.5 | Money line: Florida -280, Maryland +230
I’m backing the Gators to have a bounceback, “flex your might” kind of game against the Terps in the Sweet 16. The Gators have the best player in the matchup (Walter Clayton Jr.). The Gators have better depth. They have the better offense. And they have the tools to slow down Maryland.
Since Feb. 9, Maryland has gone 10-2. Few teams entered March Madness as hot as the Terps, who blasted their first-round opponent, Grand Canyon, by 32 points. Maryland then won its second-round game against Colorado State by 1 point on a buzzer-beating runner from forward Derik Queen.
No one has had an answer this season for the 6-foot-10, 246-pound freshman. Queen averaged 16.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 1.9 assists en route to a Big Ten Freshman of the Year honor. He scored 31 points in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals against Michigan, then scored 17 against CSU last Sunday.
Queen is 20% of “The Crab Five.” Maryland is 319th in the country in bench usage this season. Per KenPom, the 2 starting guards are both playing north of 80% of the minutes in the backcourt over the last 5 games. Queen, forward Julian Reese, and wing Selton Miguel are all playing more than 60% of the minutes at the 5, 4, and 3 spots, respectively. Against CSU, all 5 starters played 33 minutes or more. Only 1 player — forward Jordan Geronimo — saw more than 7 minutes off the bench.
Maryland is going to rely on its starting 5. If anyone from that group gets in foul trouble, Maryland lands in hot water.
This is a big game for Alex Condon, who has struggled to find his offense over the last few weeks but might be able to make an indelible mark on the defensive side of the floor. Condon was one of the best defenders in the SEC this season. He and Rueben Chinyelu can make life tough on Maryland’s frontcourt. And Florida has bodies to throw at Queen and Reese. Micah Handlogten and Thomas Haugh are more than capable.
Both sides have elite defenses, but Florida’s advantage in the frontcourt — both in terms of rebounding and depth — tip this matchup in favor of the Gators.
Florida surviving a late push from UConn felt different from Maryland skating past Colorado State. After a buzzer-beater, I’m looking to fade the Terps. I think the Gators can win this by a few possessions.
Bet Florida -5.5 (-118 via DraftKings)
3 Texas Tech vs. 10 Arkansas (Thursday, 10:09 p.m. ET, TBS)
Texas Tech -5.5 | Total: 147.5 | Money line: Texas Tech -240, Arkansas +200
Every time Drake tried to force its way back into the game, Texas Tech had an answer. The Red Raiders were up 77-61 with a minute to play against the Bulldogs and closed out one of the more impressive results of the tournament so far. Forward Darrion Williams scored 28 points with 5 assists and 2 steals while JT Toppin recorded a 25-point, 12-rebound double-double. Those 2 combined to shoot 22-for-31 from the field and 8-for-9 from the foul line.
At 19.3 points per game, Toppin has often been the best player on the floor this season. And he has turned his game up over the last month. Toppin has averaged 23 a game over his last 13 games. During that stretch, he has 6 games with at least 25 points and 3 with at least 30 points.
As Arkansas has made its run, the Razorbacks have knocked off 2 massive names. In the first round, Arkansas beat the preseason No. 1. In the second round, the Hogs beat 2-seed St. John’s, a popular Final Four pick.
But both of Arkansas’s first 2 opponents were deeply flawed on the offensive side of the floor. Kansas was trending down when the 2 sides met. St. John’s has never been a good shooting team. The Red Raiders rank fifth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.
The Red Raiders are top-30 in effective field goal rate and in turnover percentage.
And they’ve made their tournament run without All-Big 12 guard Chance McMillan. The 6-foot-2 guard averaged 14.2 points per game in 30 starts this season and shot 43.4% from 3. He has missed the last 3 games with an injury.
The Red Raiders can score in a multitude of ways. Tech took 46 triples in the first-round win over UNC Wilmington. Against Drake, they took 14 while scoring 50 points in the paint. If McMillian is back on the floor, Tech’s offense gets it done.
Bet Texas Tech -5.5 (-110 via ESPN Bet)
2 Michigan State vs. 6 Ole Miss (Friday, 7:09 p.m. ET, CBS)
Michigan State -2.5 | Total: 143.5 | Money line: Michigan State -155, Ole Miss +135
In NCAA Tournament games with at least 3 days to prepare, Chris Beard is 8-1 against the spread. Beard’s Little Rock team beat 5-seed Purdue in the first round of the 2016 NCAA Tournament. His 2018 Red Raiders team won a Sweet 16 game by 13 points over Purdue, then won a Sweet 16 game against another 2 seed by 19 points the following season. Beard has made the Sweet 16 3 times in his career and has won all 3 games outright.
He’s been a safe option to back in the NCAA Tournament throughout his career, and this year’s Ole Miss squad has won back-to-back games as an underdog to make the program’s first Sweet 16 appearance since 2001.
All that considered, Michigan State looks like a troubling matchup for the Rebels. The Spartans — 19th in offensive rebounding, eighth in defensive rebounding, per KenPom — have a clear and significant advantage on the glass. They also have the best 3-point defense in the country, giving up just 27.8% to their opponents. Michigan State also does well to get to the free throw line and that’s an area where it can really hurt the Ole Miss defense.
The guard-heavy Rebels will have a tough time matching the physicality of the Spartans.
Bet Michigan State -2.5 (-115 via DraftKings)
2 Tennessee vs. 3 Kentucky (Friday, 7:39 p.m. ET, TBS)
Tennessee -4.5 | Total: 144.5 | Money line: Tennessee -190, Kentucky +160
Kentucky beat Tennessee in Knoxville with Jaxson Robinson and without Lamont Butler. Then the Wildcats beat Tennessee in Lexington with Butler and without Robinson. In both instances, the 2 sides took their time feeling their way into the game. The first meeting featured 63 first-half points. The second meeting featured 59 first-half points.
Robinson remains out for the Wildcats, who mostly ran a 7-man rotation in the second round against Illinois. Tennessee’s first 2 tournament games have featured 63 and then 57 first-half points. Kentucky’s first halves have seen 62 and 69 points, respectively.
Tennessee has kept the possessions low through its first 2 tourney games. With an elite defense at the rim, shutdown defenders on the perimeter who force low-percentage 3s, and strong offensive rebounding numbers, Tennessee can dictate the terms and keep the first half tight.
Bet first-half total under 68.5 points (-110 via ESPN Bet)
1 Auburn vs. 5 Michigan (Friday, 9:39 p.m. ET, CBS)
Auburn -8.5 | Total: 153.5 | Money line: Auburn -425, Michigan +320
Behind 23 points from Vladislav Goldin and 26 bench points from Roddy Gayle Jr., Michigan dropped 91 on Texas A&M in the second round of bounce the Aggies from the Big Dance. Michigan shot just 27% from 3, but it took 36 free throws. In the Wolverines’ NCAA Tournament opener, they made 11 of their 20 free throws, shot poorly from 3, and scored just 68 points.
This is a bad 3-point shooting team (33.3%) and a team that turns the ball over at a high rate (19.6%). Texas A&M couldn’t force turnovers and it couldn’t defend without fouling. It paid the price. But Auburn also can’t really defend without fouling, and it doesn’t force a high rate of turnovers. The Tigers have given their opponent 25 free throws in a game 14 times this season. They rank 310th nationally in free throw rate allowed.
Michigan, a winner in 5 straight, looks to be beyond the 2-4 skid it closed the season on. The Wolverines have scored more than 80 points in 3 of those 5 wins. Goldin has been excellent. Danny Wolf has been stout. And Gayle has provided a scoring punch off the bench.
Bet Michigan team total over 71.5 points (-135 via BetMGM)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
