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The SEC begins what will very likely be its most anticipated NCAA Tournament ever on Thursday. The league set a new record with 14 teams selected to participate in this year’s field. Two SEC teams grabbed 1-seeds and 2 more earned 2-seeds. According to the latest March Madness odds, Florida, Auburn, and Alabama have 3 of the 5 shortest odds to win the title at the outset of the competition.
In the nonconference portion of the season, the SEC had an unbelievable showing. But the league is fighting some recent history in the postseason. SEC teams are covering just around 40% of NCAA Tournament games over the last 5 seasons. The top of the league is undeniably strong, but the SEC has been thumping its chest all year about the quality depth throughout. To that end, the mid-tier (and lower) teams need to buck a trend. Since 2007, SEC teams seeded in the bottom half of the bracket are 10-25 straight up (SU).
Two of those teams play on Thursday, as does the No. 1 overall seed in the field.
Here’s how to bet on the 6-game slate.
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16 Alabama State (2:50 p.m. ET, CBS)
The Hornets and the Red Flash battled in Dayton Tuesday night for the honor of getting creamed by Auburn. According to KenPom, these are the 2 lowest rated teams in the tournament field by a significant degree. They are the only 2 teams outside the KenPom top 250 and neither has a particularly appealing set of qualities that would lead one to believe a 16-1 upset is happening in this part of the bracket.
The conversation starts and ends with, “Who is guarding Johni Broome?” There is no answer here. Auburn’s first-round opponent is among the shorter squads in the Division I ranks.
Alabama State will be attempting to guard Broome with a 6-5, 185-pound senior or a 6-6, 205-pound junior. The Hornets don’t turn the basketball over, but they foul a ton and are among the worst shooting teams in the country. Auburn’s size should be able to suffocate an offense that relies on individual ability to create buckets.
There have only been 2 instances in the NCAA Tournament all-time in which a 16-seed beat a 1-seed. Last season, 1-seeds won all 4 games by an average of 34 points. Following a disastrous first-round upset a year ago, Auburn should be out to prove a point.
No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Georgia (4:35 p.m. ET, TBS)
In an interesting seed quirk, Georgia gets a first-round matchup that is supposed to be more like-for-like than anywhere else in the bracket. But the Zags are No. 9 in KenPom and have a top-10 offense. Georgia ranks 34th in KenPom. The average gap in KenPom ratings between the other 8-9 matchups in the bracket is 6.7. Two of the 8-9 games feature teams that are separated by just 3 spots in KenPom’s ratings.
Gonzaga is incredibly efficient when it holds the basketball. The Bulldogs are 25th nationally in effective field goal percentage thanks to the 10th-best 2-point offense in the country. They hit their free throws at an 80% rate as a team. They rebound the basketball well on the offensive glass and rarely turn the ball over (fourth in turnover rate, 13.2%).
Georgia has a height advantage it might be able to capitalize on, but Gonzaga has the best players in the matchup. According to Evan Miya’s player ratings, 6-10 forward Braden Huff is the fourth-most efficient player in the country. He averaged 10.8 points in just 16 minutes a night off the bench this season, but entered the starting lineup in the WCC Tournament title game and scored 18 points. Gonzaga gets 17.1 a game from forward Graham Ike and just shy of a nightly point-assist double-double from point guard Ryan Nembhard, who is averaging 10.8 points and 9.8 assists.
Georgia’s 12-1 record in out-of-conference play suggests the Bulldogs should be a challenge, but that pre-SEC schedule was remarkably weak. The Bulldogs faced a top-30 team (per KenPom) 12 times this season and went 3-9 in those games. That includes a 1-5 record against top-10 teams.
Bet Gonzaga -5.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Wofford (6:50 p.m. ET, TNT)
On Nov. 16, away from home, Wofford played Duke and scored 35 points in 40 minutes. The Terriers managed just 14 points in the first half and ended the game shooting 5-for-33 on 3-pointers. They took just 3 free throws all night and committed 19 turnovers. Duke’s length was a serious problem, forcing Wofford into a 58% 3-point rate.
Tennessee doesn’t have the same kind of length, but it has just as nasty a defense as the Blue Devils. Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack bully opposing perimeter players all game long and Tennessee has the best 3-point defense in basketball as a result. Wofford relies on its guards to do the heavy lifting on offense and takes 3s as a much higher rate than you’d expect from a team that shoots under 35% on them. There’s minimal upset potential here. Wofford is going to have a heinous time trying to score.
Bet Wofford team total under 60.5 (-240 via bet365)
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No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 10 Arkansas (7:10 p.m. ET, CBS)
Arkansas is up to 20th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The under hit 18 times in 31 regular-season games. Kansas is 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The under hit 21 times in 31 regular-season games for the Jayhawks. Both games for both teams in their respective conference tournaments cleared the projected point totals, but I’m targeting the under in this matchup.
The matchup between bigs is fascinating. Jonas Aidoo has come on strong of late for Arkansas, scoring in double digits in 3 straight games. Aidoo has played heavy minutes off the bench and will likely be called on again to contend with Kansas big man Hunter Dickinson. Arkansas has major length to throw at Dickinson, with 7-2 Zvonimir Ivisic and 6-9 Trevon Brazile also playing big minutes in the frontcourt. That clogs things for a 3-averse Kansas offense that would much rather score in the paint. The Jayhawks are 297th in 3-point rate and 355th in free throw rate.
Adou Thiero is not expected to be ready for this game, but Boogie Fland appears set to rejoin the rotation. Expect some rust on his part — he hasn’t played since Jan. 22 — and a bit of an adjustment as DJ Wagner and Johnell Davis reorient around him again. Fland was the Razorbacks’ top ball-handler when he went down with an injury and while he won’t step right back into the same level of usage, it’s still safe to expect some sort of an adjustment for a team that had recently found a groove without him.
Bet Kansas-Arkansas total points under 146.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Yale (7:25 p.m. ET, TBS)
This, to me, is the first-round SEC game with the highest upset potential. Yale shocked Auburn as a 13-seed last season and this Texas A&M team is just as susceptible to a one-and-done kind of postseason.
Yale went 22-7 this season but enters the tourney with wins in 16 of its last 17 games. The Bulldogs are an outstanding rebounding team (15th nationally in rebounding rate) and a brutally efficient 3-point shooting team (38.8%). In last season’s upset of Auburn, guard John Poulakidas scored 28 points and drilled 6 of his 9 triples.
Poulakidas enters March Madness this season having hit 13 of his last 28 triples. He scored at least 25 points in 2 of his last 3 games and has shown the ability to put big performances on big-brand teams. In a game against Purdue back in November, Poulakidas scored 23 points while making 5 triples. He scored 21 on 4-of-7 shooting from deep in a 3-point loss to Minnesota days later.
Yale also has another scoring option in Bez Mbeng if Texas A&M gets too preoccupied with Poulakidas. Mbeng is averaging 16.2 points in 39 minutes a game over his last 5.
I didn’t like the body language from the Aggies in the SEC Tournament loss to Texas. Wade Taylor IV was largely on his own on the offensive end of the floor. Yale might give up offensive rebounds to A&M but everyone gives up offensive rebounds to A&M. The Bulldogs will surprise folks with their ability to match the physicality, and if 3s start going in for the Ivy Leaguers and the crowd gets behind them, A&M is in trouble.
Bet Yale +7.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
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No. 6 Mizzou vs. No. 11 Drake (7:35 p.m. ET, truTV)
Drake has won 18 of its last 19. Its head coach, Ben McCollum, won 4 national championships in 15 seasons at the Division II level before taking over at Drake in the offseason. Five players averaged at least 27 minutes a game for McCollum’s last Northwest Missouri State team and 4 of them followed him to Drake.
The Bulldogs have executed the gameplan to perfection this season. Their average offensive possession runs 22 seconds, the longest in a decade according to KenPom. They have the stingiest transition defense in the country and excel at getting to the free throw line. Drake has the ability to grind this game to an absolute halt.
As such, Drake is one of the trendiest upset picks throughout the bracket. But the lack of a clear option to throw at Mark Mitchell has me opting for an ATS bet rather than a money line one. Mizzou has a clear advantage in terms of athletes, and the Tigers will look to force turnovers against a team that is surprisingly loose with the basketball at times (279th in turnover rate). But Mizzou also fouls a ton and gets beat up on the defensive glass. This will be close; Drake won’t get sped up and that means this game won’t be decided by more than a couple of possessions.
Bet Drake +6.5 (-115 via ESPN Bet)
Derek Peterson does a bit of everything, not unlike Taysom Hill. He has covered Oklahoma, Nebraska, the Pac-12, and now delivers CFB-wide content.
