Ad Disclosure
March Madness futures picks: Best bets for Final Four, Elite Eight and more
Published:
The 2025 NCAA Tournament is finally here!
With the arrival of March Madness, all of the best betting apps now offering odds for each of the 68 teams to advance to the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four and more. By comparing those odds to public projection models, this story will aim to highlight where there might be value in the futures market.
An important note before we dive in: 1) All references to “expected value” are based on comparing projections from BartTorvik’s TourneyCast model to odds from the betting markets.
College basketball futures bets for the 2025 NCAA Tournament
All odds via BetMGM:
First Bet Bonus Up to $1500: IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, NV, NY, OH, TN, WY/// Bet $10, Get $150 States: AZ, CO, DC, MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, PA, VA, WV
21+ and present in Participating states. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Not in NY.
Houston to win National Championship (+625)
- Implied odds: 13.79%
- BartTorvik odds: 32.1%
- Expected value: $67.48 on a $100 wager
If you’ve followed BartTorvik’s model for any period of time, you’ll know that it loves Houston. It did last year, too. So much so that the Cougars are ranked No. 1 in BartTorvik’s power rating — not Duke, Florida or Auburn.
Houston has an elite backcourt with LJ Cryer and Milos Uzan running the show. More importantly, the Cougars have arguably the nation’s best defense and a seasoned coach in Kelvin Sampson. Houston went 19-1 in Big 12 play this season and enters the NCAA Tournament on a 13-game winning streak.
Liberty to reach the Round of 32 (+260)
- Implied odds: 27.78%
- BartTorvik odds: 40.9%
- Expected value: $47.24 on a $100 wager
BartTorvik’s model likes Liberty to advance past No. 5-seeded Oregon in Round 1. The Flames are one of a few teams nationally who are top-10 in effective field goal percentage on both ends of the floor.
Of course, the NCAA Tournament will be a step up in class from what Liberty faced during the regular season in Conference USA. But Liberty has wins over Kansas State and McNeese, so it can win high-level games. Liberty shoots (and makes) a ton of 3-pointers while limiting long-range attempts and makes from its opponents. That’s a recipe for success in March, especially as an underdog. BartTorvik’s model also shows +EV on Liberty to make the Elite Eight at +10000.
Maryland to make the Elite Eight (+425)
- Implied odds: 19.05%
- BartTorvik odds: 26%
- Expected value: $36.50 on a $100 wager
BartTorvik’s model has been ahead of the curve on Maryland for a couple months now. Back on Jan. 24, it was showing +EV on the Terps to make the Final Four at +2200. Those odds are now +900.
Maryland would likely have to upset Florida in order to cash this bet, but that’s not impossible. The Terps may have the best player on the floor in that matchup in Derik Queen and they have an elite defense (6th nationally in schedule-adjusted defensive rating, per KenPom). Maryland is also a great 3-point shooting team and has done a good job of limiting their opponents from beyond the arc as well. If they meet the Gators in the Sweet 16, I think it would be competitive. The model also shows a similar EV on Maryland to make the Final Four at +900.
Texas Tech to make the Final Four (+600)
- Implied odds: 14.29%
- BartTorvik odds: 17.8%
- Expected value: $24.60 on a $100 wager
Has anyone flown more under-the-radar this season than Texas Tech? The Red Raiders quietly have wins over BYU, Arizona, Houston, Baylor (twice) and Kansas. This is a battle-tested team with elite metrics (7th in KenPom entering the tournament).
Texas Tech is likely to be favored in every game it plays until a possible matchup with Florida in the Elite Eight. But if the Gators stumble before then, the Red Raiders should immediately become the favorite to make it out of the West region. At +600, Texas Tech’s Final Four odds are certainly enticing.
Oklahoma to make the Round of 32 (+170)
- Implied odds: 37.04%
- BartTorvik odds: 44.2%
- Expected value: $19.34 on a $100 wager
We’ll stay in the West region for one more pick. Oklahoma draws 2-time defending national champion UConn in Round 1. The predictive metrics like BartTorvik and KenPom have the Sooners as very slight underdogs in this game, but the betting markets are much higher on the Huskies. UConn is a 4.5-point favorite in this matchup at most shops.
This model thinks Dan Hurley and UConn are getting too much credit against an Oklahoma team that is playing its best basketball of the season. The Sooners rallied down the stretch to win 4 of its last 7 games to earn a bid. Its 3 losses over that period were by a combined 5 points.
First Bet Bonus Up to $1500: IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, NV, NY, OH, TN, WY/// Bet $10, Get $150 States: AZ, CO, DC, MA, MD, MI, NC, NJ, PA, VA, WV
21+ and present in Participating states. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Not in NY.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
