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Every SEC team in the Sweet 16 has a legitimate shot at advancing to the Elite Eight. Stunning, I know. This isn’t exactly the point in the NCAA Tournament when you’re supposed to lose faith in a team’s ability.
But in order for each of the record 7 SEC teams remaining to advance, they’ll need certain guys to step up and provide a pivotal presence. It’s not as simple as “leading scorer ‘X’ needs to play the game of his life.” It’s also unrealistic to set an expectation of a 5th guy off the bench putting up 20 and 10.
There are, however, X-factor players on each team. They aren’t the leading scorer, and they’re closer to being glue guys. They’re the guys who we could look back on at the conclusion of the Sweet 16 and say, “Team ‘X’ advanced because of player ‘X.'” Alternatively, we could look back and say, “Team ‘X’ lost because player ‘X’ didn’t step up.”
Have I mentioned the letter ‘X’ enough yet? No? OK, here’s an X-factor for each SEC team in the Sweet 16.
Alabama — Chris Youngblood
When Youngblood scores 10 points in a game, Alabama is 10-1, with the lone loss coming to Florida in the SEC Tournament semifinals when Grant Nelson got hurt. Even on an Alabama team that’s blessed with no shortage of offensive weapons, there’s something to be said for when Youngblood gets going. We saw that against Saint Mary’s when he drained a 3 for Alabama’s first points of the night. That was the beginning of a 13-point first half.
That was monumental for a Tide team that had Grant Nelson in his first full game since returning from his SEC Tournament injury. Mark Sears is also in the midst of a 5-for-35 shooting slump from 3-point range in his last 6 games. If Sears’ outside shooting is going to be a liability, he’s going to be more of a slash-and-kick guy on offense. The well-traveled Youngblood needs to knock down shots, especially in the likely event that Alabama-BYU turns into an up-tempo shootout.
Arkansas — Jonas Aidoo
If you’re wondering why Arkansas has been able to find this new gear late in the season, point to a healthy Aidoo. He might not have been at his best coming off foot surgery over the summer, but even dating back to his time at Tennessee, Aidoo looks like someone who has put it all together on both sides of the floor instead of just being a rim protector. As bad as St. John’s was shooting it from deep, Aidoo’s ability to alter shots was felt in that game. His NCAA Tournament experience has been felt, especially when he had Hunter Dickinson completely out of sorts on both sides of the ball in the comeback win against Kansas.
Aidoo has never been asked to be a guy who could get 15-20, but with the Hogs a bit banged up down the stretch, his impact on the offensive end has been a revelation. In the last 5 games, he averaged 16.2 points and he shot a respectable 68% from the free-throw line, which has allowed him to stay on the floor late in games. If Aidoo can avoid getting into foul trouble — something he could do against a Texas Tech offense that doesn’t get to the free-throw line at a particularly high rate — he could be at the center of several key plays in the closing minutes of another Arkansas upset bid.
Auburn — Chad Baker-Mazara
Duh. This one is the most obvious on the list. Baker-Mazara was the X-factor in that Creighton win with 17 points, despite the bone bruise injury he suffered while attacking the basket. His spark is undeniable. That’s well-documented on both ends of the spectrum. Auburn needs the 25-year-old to keep his composure and be the unique, game-changing weapon that he’s been the majority of the time this season. When the stretched-out version of John Starks is right, it turns Auburn into the best team in college basketball.
Against a Michigan team that already had a noteworthy on-court scuffle at Michigan State, nobody would be surprised if the Wolverines tried to get Baker-Mazara off his game. If they can do that successfully, it can send Auburn packing, especially if Johni Broome still doesn’t look like his National Player of the Year self. Alternatively, Baker-Mazara finishing at the rim among Michigan’s skyscraper 7-footers could be the lasting image of Auburn punching a ticket to its 3rd Elite Eight in program history. Both outcomes are very much in play.
Florida — Thomas Haugh
If you’ve watched a lot of Florida this year, you’ve likely become a fan of Haugh. Good things happen when he’s on the floor. He attacks the offensive glass, he’s incredibly cerebral and he’s somehow always perfectly in sync with the flow of Florida’s high-octane offense. His presence is a major reason why Florida’s guards operate with so much confidence. He’s willing to do all the little things and has become an extreme glue guy for Todd Golden’s squad. But he’s an X-factor because he’s shown the ability to make clutch, smart plays down the stretch that have decided games.
How many 6-9 sophomores come off the bench and shoot free throws at an 81% clip? Or if they do, they certainly aren’t max-effort guys who always extend possessions. In 5 postseason games this year, he’s 28-for-35 at the line (80%), and in the last 7 minutes of those games, he went 12-for-14 from the charity stripe. Don’t underestimate the significance of that in this tournament because he can be a safety blanket for an in-bounds passer in an obvious fouling situation. Against a tough, battle-tested team like Maryland who can force Florida into a 40-minute game, Haugh’s minutes will be huge.
Kentucky — Lamont Butler
As I said with Baker-Mazara, just because it’s obvious doesn’t make it untrue. Butler and his banged-up shoulder will have a big-time challenge against Tennessee. How much we’ll see Butler on Tennessee sharp-shooter Chaz Lanier remains to be seen, but in all likelihood, the former San Diego State transfer will have plenty of Zakai Zeigler matchups. Can he prevent the longtime Tennessee point guard from getting to his spots and make it difficult for the Vols to get into their offense? Can he be disruptive and force bad shots late in the shot clock? Can he get his hands into the passing lanes and get Kentucky into transition to combat the slow, methodical pace of the Vols?
These were the types of games that Mark Pope hoped Butler could be the difference. Of course, that original vision didn’t include Butler donning a shoulder brace that could limit his offensive impact (he did look much more comfortable against Illinois than Troy because he switched the brace). If Butler can be a thorn in the Vols’ side once again, Kentucky could complete the 3-0 sweep that would have a lasting bragging rights impact in that rivalry.
Ole Miss — Dre Davis
There’s something oddly satisfying about seeing someone think they have an open layup, only to then watch the 6-6 Davis coming flying in for a block, and not just because it gives me a chance to say “I guess they forgot about Dre.” He’s a unique complement to Sean Pedulla because of how above-the-rim he plays on both sides of the ball. Sometimes, that can lead to some foul trouble, which we saw when he fouled out in the Round of 32 win against Iowa State. Other times, he can make his presence felt against more talented, athletic teams like UNC and Auburn.
Against those resilient, Tom Izzo-coached guards, Ole Miss can’t afford to have Davis pick up 2 cheap fouls in the first 8 minutes. Michigan State leads the nation in 3-point defense, and there’s a good chance that Ole Miss’s shooters like Pedulla will get run off the 3-point line after he fueled a 58% clip from long range against Iowa State. Chris Beard’s squad needs alternative ways to generate offense against a sound defensive team like MSU. Davis’s ability to score through contact and come up with clutch buckets late could allow Ole Miss to keep dancing.
Tennessee — Jordan Gainey
If Chaz Lanier keeps shooting the way he has so far in the NCAA Tournament, the Vols will be in position to reach their first Final Four in program history. He’s been that good. But there’s a scenario in which Lanier struggles against Kentucky for the 3rd time, and the Vols need to find another weapon who can take over a game. Gainey is that dude. He kept Tennessee in the SEC Championship with his 24 points off the bench, and he’s been at his best since the calendar turned to March (14.1 PPG).
During the Rick Barnes era at Tennessee, there always seems to be that prolonged offensive drought during an NCAA Tournament game. It’s just a matter of when and how long it lasts. Gainey can be the answer to pull Tennessee out of that. He might not be on Lanier or Dalton Knecht’s level as a shot-maker, but if Tennessee gets in an offensive rut and is in jeopardy of watching another path to the Final Four slip away, don’t be surprised if Gainey is the one who rights the ship.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
