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NCAA Tournament 2025: Why each SEC team can win the title, and why they might fall short
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The SEC didn’t just break the all-time record for NCAA Tournament berths for a conference in a single season.
It shattered the record during 1 single season where its excellence knew no bounds.
Fourteen NCAA berths. Fourteen.
The previous record was held by the Big East, which got 11 teams into the tournament in 2011. Well, 14 years later, during a winter of hardwood madness all over the South that defied logic, the SEC somehow pounded out 14 NCAA bids, which means the league claimed about one-fifth of the entire 68-team field.
And now, over the next 3 weeks, the SEC will get a chance to prove that it deserved every bit of the glossy headlines it made on Selection Sunday when it got an unheard of 14 of its 16 teams into the tournament.
Sure, there are layers to the SEC’s NCAA Tournament brigade. There are the presumed championship contenders, like No. 1 overall seed Auburn, fellow 1-seed Florida, and 2-seeds Alabama and Tennessee. There is the supposed second tier of SEC teams who made the field, like 3-seed Kentucky, 4-seed Texas A&M and 6-seeds Missouri and Ole Miss.
And then there’s the fringe SEC teams who played their way in because, well, they were really solid in a really historic season for 1 league. Those teams would be 8-seed Mississippi State, 9-seeds Georgia and Oklahoma, 10-seeds Arkansas and Vanderbilt, and 11-seed Texas, which will begin the SEC’s March (and maybe April) party on Wednesday night when it faces fellow 11-seed Xavier in the last First Four game in Dayton.
An astounding 14 teams, all of them with NCAA championship dreams, all of them full of talent and, yes, all of them with roadblocks to that elusive title — even Auburn and Florida. So, with that, we’re going to lay out the path for all 14 of these SEC squads, giving you 1 reason why each of them can win the title and 1 reason why each of them might just fall short.
We won’t play favorites, either, so we’ll go in alphabetical order:
1. Alabama
Why they can win the title: Simply having Mark Sears on their team could be the answer here, but it’s way more than that. The Crimson Tide carry more motivation than perhaps any other team into the NCAA Tournament, after flaming out in the Sweet 16 as a title favorite in 2023 and then getting punched in the mouth by UConn when they finally got to the program’s first Final Four last season. The talent is there again for a run in 2025, but that motivation factor to finally go the distance and finish the job could be what puts Alabama over the top this April.
Why they might not: The simple answer is the uncertain status of senior stalwart Grant Nelson, who suffered an apparent left leg injury in the SEC Tournament. But the bigger problem is that Nate Oats’ team sometimes forgets to play any semblance of defense. The Crimson Tide allowed 80 or more points a staggering 19 times in their 33 games entering the NCAA Tournament, and their lack of attention to detail on that end of the floor has been a consistent characteristic that just isn’t very common among teams who end up winning it all.
2. Arkansas
Why they can win the title: The Razorbacks are in the tournament because they belong, and a big reason why they got to 20 wins after starting 0-5 in the SEC is because they have John Calipari as their head coach. Calipari took a lot of heat for taking the Arkansas job and he took a lot of heat after the awful start. But since the Hogs went to Lexington and beat Kentucky in Calipari’s return to Rupp Arena, Arkansas has been a different team. Calipari has only won one NCAA title, but he’s been here a thousand times, and his presence should pay dividends immediately when he squares off with Bill Self in a high-profile first-round game against Kansas.
Why they might not: Calipari can’t actually play in the game, and so it ultimately comes down to his players. And Arkansas’s best player, junior forward Adou Thiero, is officially listed as doubtful for the opening weekend of the tournament because of a knee injury that has kept him out since he last played on Feb. 22. Thiero is the Razorbacks’ leading scorer and rebounder, and he also leads them in steals. For a team that barely slipped into the NCAA Tournament, there is no margin for error, and the uncertainty around Thiero might prove too much for any kind of deep run.
3. Auburn
Why they can win the title: The Tigers have Johni Broome, and nobody else in the country does. Yes, Bruce Pearl’s team lost its last 2 regular-season games, then got bounced by Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals. But the Tigers still did enough to earn the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, winning the regular-season title in a historically good conference. Broome lost some of his billing as the nation’s best player to Cooper Flagg, but that doesn’t mean he still doesn’t have a claim. He will be ultra motivated to follow up a special regular season with an equally special NCAA Tournament.
Why they might not: Some teams have done it, but it’s just so tough to go wire-to-wire and be the last team standing on that Monday night in April. Auburn has been No. 1 for most of the season, until Duke grabbed the mantle at the end of the regular season. Broome and the Tigers have travelled the long road as the hunted this season, and that can wear on the best of teams, especially a team that’s fought through the jungle of this particularly grueling SEC gauntlet. Auburn having the juice to finish what it started this season will be fascinating to watch.
4. Florida
Why they can win the title: At this very moment, entering the NCAA Tournament, Florida is playing better than anyone in the country. The Gators are 12-1 in their past 13 games, and that record is particularly astounding because it’s all against SEC competition. UF can win in a lot of ways, but its high-octane offense is deadly. The Gators only failed to crack 80 points once during this 13-game home stretch, and the exception was a 79-65 win at LSU. Todd Golden’s crew put up 90 points in winning at Auburn in early February, and they just might be able to overwhelm anyone in their path over the next 3 weeks.
Why they might not: With Auburn getting the 1-seed in the South, Florida was shipped out and given the 1-seed in a stacked West Region that features some head coaches with plenty of bling. There is Rick Pitino and No. 2 seed St. John’s as the top roadblock, but there are more obstacles potentially waiting led by Danny Hurley and 2-time defending national champion UConn. If that’s not enough, the West also has Bill Self (Kansas) and John Calipari (Arkansas), and while Golden has proven himself as a winner in Gainesville, he has still yet to even win 1 NCAA Tournament game in his brief head coaching career.
5. Georgia
Why they can win the title: Georgia football has all the pressure in the world when it competes for national titles. The men’s basketball team? These Bulldogs have absolutely zero pressure, and that nothing-to-lose theme is dangerous combined with the fact that they have a head coach in Mike White who brings plenty of NCAA Tournament experience with him. White has been here, done that with Florida, leading the Gators to 4 NCAA appearances, including a run to the Elite 8 in 2017. White has already led these Bulldogs to an upset of popular tournament pick Florida, so why would they be afraid of anybody going forward?
Why they might not: The cold reality is that before the Dawgs got hot toward the end of the regular season, they went through a disastrous 2-9 stretch that threatened to derail any dreams of going dancing. Yes, Georgia was able to pull itself together and sneak into the NCAA Tournament. But how much can really be expected of a team that won 3 of its 8 SEC games this season against South Carolina and LSU, the only 2 teams in the league who didn’t make the tournament?
6. Kentucky
Why they can win the title: The fact that they’re Kentucky isn’t nearly enough to carry these deeply flawed Wildcats to another NCAA title. But the fact that starting point guard Lamont Butler has proclaimed himself to be ready to roll for the NCAA Tournament after nursing a left shoulder injury for the past 2 months is indeed enough to make Mark Pope’s team a lot scarier. Butler has thrived in the biggest March moments, headlined by his buzzer-beater that lifted San Diego State past FAU in the 2023 Final Four semifinals.
Why they might not: While Butler is good to go, the Wildcats’ other injured guard, Jaxson Robinson, is done for the season after needing wrist surgery. The injury initially sidelined the senior for 4 games in February, and then it resurfaced, forcing Pope to shut Robinson down for good. His absence has been huge already, and when the games really count, his absence from the lineup might be too much to overcome for a team that went through a 4-6 stretch during the heart of conference season.
7. Mississippi State
Why they can win the title: The Bulldogs weathered the storm all winter in the insanely rugged SEC, and that alone gives them a puncher’s chance to make some noise in the tournament. Should they get past Baylor in the first round, Mississippi State will likely get mighty Duke in a second-round matchup. While the Blue Devils would be a big favorite on a neutral court, the Bulldogs wouldn’t be intimidated in the least after staring down beast after beast in the SEC all season.
Why they might not: Mississippi State leans a whole lot on sophomore guard Josh Hubbard, who is far and away the Bulldogs’ leading scorer at 18.7 points per game. But a closer look at Hubbard reveals that he’s very inefficient, shooting just 39.4% from the field and 34.3% from 3-point territory. Believing Mississippi State can make a long tournament run led by a player like that just isn’t realistic, no matter how resilient the SEC has made these Bulldogs.
8. Missouri
Why they can win the title: Two words — Dennis Gates. The Tigers’ head coach is one of the stories of the season in college basketball. The Naismith Coach of the Year semifinalist is a study in belief and resilience. Gates has led Mizzou to 22 wins this season (so far) and was over .500 in the insanely good SEC at 10-8 after the Tigers lost all 18 of their conference games just last season. Gates has the program back on solid ground after taking Mizzou to the NCAA Tournament in his first season in Columbia, and the belief factor right now is sky high.
Why they might not: Let’s face it, Mizzou faded down the stretch. After beating Alabama at home, the Tigers went 1-4 in their last 5 regular-season games, with the 1 victory coming against lowly South Carolina. Mizzou was no match for Florida in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals and trusting that the Tigers can regain their mojo in time for a March run is a bit hard to see right now.
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9. Oklahoma
Why they can win the title: The Sooners can continue leaning on Jeremiah Fears, who plays with no fear, as they have all season. The freshman guard has meant everything to Oklahoma’s program this season, and he’s the biggest reason the Sooners slipped into the NCAA Tournament after getting to 20 wins. Fears was an SEC All-Freshman Team selection, and he leads Oklahoma in scoring (17.0), assists (4.1) and steals (1.6). If Fears takes his momentum into the NCAA Tournament, who knows?
Why they might not: The harsh reality is that the Sooners were 6-12 in the SEC this season, which was good enough to sneak into the NCAA Tournament because the conference was so good. But OU didn’t beat any of the league’s big boys this season, and its NCAA draw has it in the brutal West Region opposite 2-time defending national champion UConn just to start with. If the Sooners get by the Huskies, they’d meet up with top seed and SEC rival Florida, a popular pick to win the whole thing.
10. Ole Miss
Why they can win the title: The Rebels are the essence of a battle-tested team being primed for success in March. They were the No. 8 seed in their own conference tournament, yet they’re a 6-seed in the NCAA Tournament. That tells you all you need to know about how good the league was this season, and Ole Miss got to 22 wins, went 10-8 in the SEC in the regular season and has wins over SEC behemoths Alabama and Tennessee stapled to its portfolio. The Rebels also almost beat Auburn in the SEC quarterfinals, and they have 6 players who averaged double figures in scoring, so they’re hard to guard.
Why they might not: It might sound like a stretch, but the uncertain health of Mikeal Brown-Jones going into the NCAA Tournament is an issue. He missed the SEC Tournament with an injury that’s unclear, and the transfer forward who played for VCU and UNC Greensboro has been a key veteran presence off the bench this season for the Rebels. Missing a glue guy like Brown-Jones against, say, a team like North Carolina in the first round won’t help Ole Miss’s chances of going far.
11. Tennessee
Why they can win the title: You could pick about 10 things here for why the Vols could go the distance. But we’ll go with overall moxie. Some teams claim to have it. Tennessee has it and owns it, and it was on display many times this season, including on the first day of March when Jahmai Mashack nailed a 3-point heave well beyond the arc to give the Volunteers a thrilling victory over Alabama in Knoxville. Then in the SEC Tournament, the Vols took down the state of Alabama’s other hoops powerhouse, beating regular-season champ Auburn in the semifinals. Tennessee is good, the Vols know they’re good, and that moxie is something that can carry them far.
Why they might not: OK, we admit this is a bit of cherry picking because Tennessee is that good, but in the SEC title game the Volunteers were crushed on the boards. They got out-rebounded by Florida 39-25 in Nashville, and sure enough in that ugly 30-point loss in Gainesville back in January, it was even worse as the Gators demolished Tennessee on the boards, 56-37. That rebounding disparity can’t happen against the tournament big boys if the Vols want to play in April.
12. Texas
Why they can win the title: Hey, why not? Texas knows it barely snuck into the tournament as 1 of the Last Four In, which is why the Longhorns are playing fellow 11-seed Xavier on Wednesday night in the final First Four game in Dayton. Texas’s unexpected run to the SEC quarterfinals was enough to get the Longhorns in, and that 15th loss of the season to Tennessee in the quarterfinals wasn’t enough to keep them out. Plenty of 11-seeds have made the Final Four in recent years, including NC State just last year, so, again, why not?
Why they might not: There’s 1 big reason why Texas was on that Last Four In list on Selection Sunday, or you could even say 15 reasons — as in, 15 losses. Hardly ever are 15-loss teams even considered for the NCAA Tournament, let alone make it in. Yes, Texas is a feisty team from a loaded conference led by freshman guard Tre Johnson, who averages about 20 points per game, but it lost 15 games this season because it’s really flawed, and it would be gallant if the Horns even make it past the First Four.
13. Texas A&M
Why they can win the title: To go on a long run and win the whole thing, you usually need a transcendent player. Well, the Aggies have one in senior guard Wade Taylor IV, who is now the all-time leading scorer in program history with still a little bit of his career to spare. In fact, the Aggies have already raised his No. 4 jersey to the rafters in College Station, honoring Taylor after he led them past then-No. 1 Auburn during the final week of the regular season. He’s already a legend, now all he’s missing is a deep NCAA run.
Why they might not: Yes, the Aggies took down Auburn in early March. But they’ve trended downward as the home stretch hit, losing 4 in a row before that final week of the regular season. Then, after beating Auburn and LSU to end the regular season, Texas A&M flamed out in the SEC Tournament, falling to rival Texas in double overtime in the second round. Sometimes, momentum is fickle around this time of year, but the Aggies’ lack thereof right now certainly can’t help.
14. Vanderbilt
Why they can win the title: Vandy has a horse in junior forward Devin McGlockton, who averages over 10 points per game but more importantly cleans up on the boards, leading the Commodores in rebounding at 7.9 per contest. He was a workhorse and an iron man, playing in all 32 games. It’s players like McGlockton who can be the difference between an early exit and a stirring NCAA run for a team like Vanderbilt, which isn’t expected to do much as a 10-seed.
Why they might not: The Commodores won’t be playing any NCAA Tournament games at cozy Memorial Gym, where they took down Missouri, Ole Miss, Kentucky and Tennessee. Vandy sure had a flare for the dramatic at home all season, which is a huge reason why they are still breathing in mid-March. But its only real success on the road in conference was a win at Texas A&M, and while NCAA tourney games aren’t pure road games, it’s hard to imagine the Commodores going far so far away from their friendly confines.
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
