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Ranking each SEC team’s path to the Final Four from most favorable to least favorable
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It’s still hard to fathom. Seven Sweet 16 teams. The SEC’s historic March already included setting the new mark of 14 teams in the NCAA Tournament field, which was followed with a record of 7 teams in the Sweet 16, which broke the 2016 ACC’s record of 6.
You know. In case you haven’t heard.
What happens from here is anyone’s guess, though. After all, it’s still March. The only certainty is that, thanks to the Tennessee–Kentucky matchup in the Sweet 16, the SEC will have at least 1 ticket to the Elite Eight. We know that Kentucky’s path to the Final Four will include beating a team for the 3rd time this season, and then potentially 1-seed Houston if it can get past last year’s runner-up, Purdue. That would be an extremely difficult path to the Final Four. Hence, why UK’s odds to get there are +600 (via FanDuel).
That’s relative, though. For today’s exercise, we’ll try to treat the potential opponents on the same scale. In other words, don’t assume that Arkansas (+900) and Ole Miss (+650) are the teams with the toughest paths to the Final Four just because they’re the SEC’s lowest remaining seeds.
Let’s rank the SEC paths to San Antonio from most favorable to least favorable:
7. Florida (most favorable)
Potential path — No. 4 Maryland & the winner of No. 10 Arkansas vs. No. 3 Texas Tech
Remember that we’re not factoring in previous matchups with this. In other words, I acknowledge that the 2-time defending champs gave Florida everything it could handle. But even as Dan Hurley said in the postgame, the bracket opened up a bit by Arkansas knocking off St. John’s. So that means Florida will face a Maryland team that needed a buzzer-beater to take down the last remaining mid-major in the field. With all due respect to “The Crab 5,” AKA the best group nickname since “The Fab 5,” Maryland is about as favorable of a draw as Florida could ask for. In a Sweet 16 field that has just 4 non-top 4 seeds (No. 5 Michigan, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 6 BYU and No. 10 Arkansas), the Gators could still get a pair of top-10 teams in KenPom. No path is truly easy, but when you’re avoiding a top-2 seed and the remaining teams aren’t exactly loaded with NCAA Tournament experience, that’s ideal this late in the tournament.
6. Auburn
Potential path — No. 5 Michigan & the winner of No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State
Again, no path is easy. Auburn has a matchup against the Big Ten Tournament champs and then potentially the Big Ten regular season champs, who happened to be led by the dude with 8 Final Four trips. Add in the fact that Michigan is seemingly always playing in nail-biter games and yes, the Tigers might not have as favorable of Final Four odds (-130) as the oddsmakers would suggest. But at the same time, both Michigan and Michigan State faced multi-possession deficits in the second half of Round of 32 matchups. In other words, they looked mortal in winning efforts. You could say the same thing about Auburn, but this ranking is all about the opponent. Michigan isn’t the most skilled team, but it’s a unique matchup because of its 7-foot duo. Fortunately for the Tigers, they can match that. Can they match the execution a Michigan State team that won 10 of its last 11 with 9 of those wins coming vs. tournament teams? And if Broome isn’t right, can Auburn knock down shots against the Spartans’ No. 1-ranked 3-point defense in America? Those might be the more daunting questions.
5. Tennessee
Potential path — No. 3 Kentucky & the winner of No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue
This is where it gets tricky because Tennessee has the 0-2 mark vs. Kentucky, not the other way around. Clearly, the Cats are a daunting matchup. But at the same time, the Cats are a bit banged up and perhaps more susceptible to a dud than what the opening weekend suggested (CBS reported that UK became the first team to ever reach the Sweet 16 after returning 0 points from the previous team). Plus, go back to the intro when I mentioned that there’s nothing tougher than beating a team 3 times. Hence, why Tennessee is favored by 4.5 points. So that’s a path that includes being a multi-score favorite and a potential Elite Eight matchup against a team that isn’t Duke or Florida. There’s a perfectly realistic scenario in which Tennessee finally reaches the Final Four for the first time in program history.
4. Kentucky
Potential path — No. 2 Tennessee & the winner of No. 1 Houston vs. No. 4 Purdue
Again, you might point to the Tennessee record (2-0) and think this path is more favorable than what the Vols have. Vegas would tell you that Tennessee is the better team, which suggests that UK’s path is slightly more difficult. The irony of this region is that UK, Tennessee and Purdue all have the benefit of a drivable trip to Indianapolis, whereas 1-seed Houston won’t have that luxury with its fans. Keep that in mind because if UK does make it 3-0 vs. Tennessee, Lucas Oil Stadium will feel like Rupp Arena North. Will that matter? Perhaps. But it’s still a daunting path knowing that the Cats, who could still be banged up (Lamont Butler’s shoulder won’t heal in a matter of days), will face potentially 2 top-5 KenPom teams who play an extremely unique style with 2 of the 20 slowest tempos in Division I. Getting through that in Year 1 of the Mark Pope era would be an all-time feat, even at a place with as much history as Kentucky.
3. Ole Miss
Potential path — No. 2 Michigan State & the winner of No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 5 Michigan
Wait a minute. Isn’t this a path with a 2-seed and a potential No. 1 overall seed? How is this not No. 1? Well, timing is everything. If you think that Auburn has looked like the No. 1 overall seed the last few weeks, you’ll disagree with this ranking. I, however, don’t think that’s been the case. Johni Broome still doesn’t look like himself and the Chad Baker-Mazara injury in the middle of the second half against Creighton suggests that Auburn might not look the part for 40 minutes. Ole Miss should know that as well as anyone. We saw that in a 5-point loss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals, which was sandwiched in Auburn’s 1-3 stretch entering the NCAA Tournament. But the reason this is still one of the tougher remaining paths is because Michigan State might be peaking at the right time and any notion of a 4th Auburn matchup this season — I should mention that Ole Miss is 0-3 in those — could be short-lived.
2. Alabama
Potential path — No. 6 BYU & the winner of No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Arizona
I might get some pushback on having Alabama this high because in terms of history, BYU is the de-facto mid-major in this group with just 2 Sweet 16 trips in the last 40 years (I know that BYU is in the Big 12 now). As much as that pro-style, spread-it-out offense is going to challenge any defense, especially an inconsistent unit like Alabama, it’s still a Sweet 16 matchup vs. a team that’s No. 24 in KenPom. The reason Alabama is still worthy of a top-2 spot is because of that ever-daunting Duke matchup that lingers. Having a Final Four path go through Cooper Flagg and the Blue Devils is an uphill climb, though perhaps the Tide will have the right offensive firepower to push Duke in a way that it hasn’t been pushed since Kentucky pulled off an upset in nonconference play. Still, though. Getting through the national title favorites and the future No. 1 overall pick would be even more significant than Alabama’s upset of 1-seed North Carolina in last year’s Sweet 16.
1. Arkansas (least favorable)
Potential path — No. 3 Texas Tech & the winner of No. 1 Florida vs. No. 4 Maryland
OK, so I might’ve said in the intro that we shouldn’t assume that Arkansas and Ole Miss have the toughest paths just because of what seed they were. This is more about the level of competition. Having said that, yeah, Arkansas has the toughest remaining path of any SEC team. Arkansas has to fly all the way to San Francisco to face a Texas Tech team that’s been in control so far. JT Toppin is the star, but the Red Raiders have had a different leading scorer in their last 4 games. Even if the Hogs can pull off a defensive effort like we saw against Kansas All-American Hunter Dickinson, Texas Tech could still have the right answers. And speaking of offensive versatility, Florida has it in spades. The way that the Gators attack teams, a thin Arkansas rotation could be unable to recover, especially if rim protector Jonas Aidoo gets in early foul trouble. John Calipari’s squad is the lone double-digit seed remaining in the field. The Hogs’ remaining Final Four path could have a few reminders of that in San Francisco.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
