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Ranking every Round 1 NCAA Tournament game involving an SEC team
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The 2025 NCAA Tournament starts today!
Let’s be real — none of us actually count the First Four games in Dayton as part of the real March Madness. Sure, they’re fun, but they’re just the appetizer (and a mediocre appetizer at that) for the main course that is the opening weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
I don’t know if y’all have heard, because no one is really talking about it, but I did some research and it turns out that the SEC has set a record by getting 14 teams into the field of 68.
Texas, unfortunately, already put the first blemish on the SEC’s record by losing in the First Four to Xavier, allowing the Musketeers to come from behind late. But that was the story of the Longhorns all year.
Now, though, the big boys in the SEC get to flex their muscles in March Madness.
But not every SEC team’s first-round game is created equally. With the league producing 2 No. 1 seeds (Auburn and Florida) and 2 No. 2 seeds (Alabama and Tennessee), there are some potential blowouts in store for Thursday and Friday.
Still, let’s go through and rank every Round 1 game involving an SEC team on a scale of 1-5 stars:
5-Star Games
⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
No. 4 Texas A&M vs. No. 13 Yale — Thursday at 7:25 p.m. ET on TBS
Can Texas A&M actually score any points without relying on offensive rebounds? Yale won’t give up as many offensive boards as some of the Aggies’ opponents this year. Ivy League teams tend to fare pretty well in March Madness, especially lately. Texas A&M will need to bring its A game to avoid an upset.
No. 6 Mizzou vs. No. 11 Drake — Thursday at 7:35 p.m. ET on truTV
The Thursday primetime slate is absolutely loaded. Mizzou-Drake doesn’t deserve the truTV treatment, but it’s hard to argue when you have Arkansas-Kansas on CBS and Texas A&M-Yale on TBS. This game will be won by the team that dictates its pace. The Tigers like to play fast. The Bulldogs play at the slowest pace in basketball. I’m terrified for my Tigers.
4-Star Games
⭐⭐⭐⭐
No. 7 Kansas vs. No. 10 Arkansas — Thursday at 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS
The Jayhawks are flawed this year. But the Hogs aren’t at full strength. Arkansas will be working star freshman Boogie Fland back into the rotation on Thursday. Meanwhile, Adou Thiero is out with an injury. I still think Arkansas is good enough to hang with the Jayhawks, though, so I’ll be glued to my TV for this game.
No. 8 UConn vs. No. 9 Oklahoma — Friday at 9:25 p.m. ET on TNT
The SEC had a historic regular season. What would be a good statement to make in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament? How about knocking off the back-to-back champions? I actually think Jeremiah Fears and the Sooners can take care of business and send Dan Hurley into a rage on the UConn bench.
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 North Carolina — Friday at 4:05 p.m. ET on TNT
This would have been down in the 3-star range if not for the beatdown the Tar Heels put on San Diego State in the First Four. I’m not willing to make any definitive statements on whether or not UNC belonged in the tournament just yet. I think Chris Beard’s squad will stifle UNC on Friday night, which will raise more questions about the Tar Heels’ résumé.
No. 8 Gonzaga vs. No. 9 Georgia — Thursday at 4:35 p.m. ET on TBS
Gonzaga isn’t the juggernaut we’ve come to expect. I think Asa Newell, the Georgia star freshman, can give the Zags problems. Can Silas Demary Jr. step up for Mike White’s squad? If he plays like he did down the stretch, Georgia can pull off the win. If not, the Zags probably advance.
3-Star Games
⭐⭐⭐
No. 7 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt — Friday at 3:15 p.m. ET on truTV
If Vanderbilt can limit its foul issues (a big “if”), it can hang with Saint Mary’s. The way the Gaels play, they aren’t likely to blow out anyone of Vanderbilt’s caliber. Keep it close until late and then make a run. That’s the Commodores’ path to victory.
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Troy — 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS
This game would be a 2-star game if not for Kentucky’s injury issues. How healthy is Lamont Butler? The Wildcats need him with Jaxson Robinson out for the year. The Wildcats should still be able to handle Troy, but we’ve seen previous iterations of Kentucky (under John Calipari) struggle against lesser foes in Round 1.
2-Star Games
⭐⭐
No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 15 Robert Morris — 12:40 p.m. ET on truTV
The only reason this is a 2-star game instead of a 1-star is I want to see if Alabama can put up 110+ points. No, Grant Nelson probably won’t be playing, but Mark Sears and company should be able to torch the nets against the Colonials. This should be a tune-up game for tougher tests ahead for the Crimson Tide.
No. 8 Mississippi State vs. No. 9 Baylor — Friday at 12:15 p.m. ET on CBS
This is a matchup of 2 teams that were rather disappointing down the stretch. At this point, Mississippi State vs. Baylor just seems like a competition to see who gets to lose to Duke in Round 2.
1-Star Games
⭐
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 16 Alabama State — Thursday at 2:50 p.m. ET on CBS
Alabama State is the worst team remaining in the tournament, according to KenPom. The Tigers have too much depth, too much talent, to be scared at all by Alabama State. This is a blowout waiting to happen for the No. 1 overall seed.
No. 1 Florida vs. No. 16 Norfolk State — Friday at 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT
As a Mizzou graduate, obviously I’m triggered by seeing “Norfolk State” on my bracket. But this Florida team is much better than the Mizzou squad that lost to the Spartans in a 2/15 matchup. The Gators are the trendy pick to win it all. They’ll cruise through this Round 1 game.
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Wofford — Thursday at 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT
This is basically a 1 vs. 16 matchup to me. The Vols would have been a 1-seed in almost any other year. The Terriers were the 5-seed in the SoCon Tournament. Wofford does not match up well with the Vols in any way. I will be betting the Vols to cover this game. Tougher tests await Rick Barnes and company.
Relevant Quote from “The Office”
“I knew exactly what to do. But in a much more real sense, I had no idea what to do.” — Michael Scott
That’s how I feel every year when I sit down to fill out my bracket. Enjoy the Round 1 games, y’all!
Adam is a daily fantasy sports (DFS) and sports betting expert. A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam now covers all 16 SEC football teams. He is the director of DFS, evergreen and newsletter content across all Saturday Football brands.
