SEC Tournament seeding scenarios heading into the final regular-season Saturday

The SEC Tournament starts Wednesday, March 12, when 8 of the 16 conference programs will begin their march towards the SEC title. But before the SEC Tournament tips off, we have one more regular season Saturday to enjoy.

As you can imagine with 16 programs in one conference, the seeding for the SEC Tournament is coming down to the wire. Certain games on Saturday carry more weight than others – and for some teams the postseason has effectively already started.

Before we do anything, here’s a look at the matchups on Saturday:

And here’s a look at the current standings heading into Saturday’s slate:

What’s at stake in each SEC matchup Saturday, March 8

Below, you can find an outline of the SEC Tournament bracket for the 2024-25 season. Of course, it’s a bit of a deviation from the usual bracket with Texas and Oklahoma having joined the fray at the start of this season.

There are a few minor, but important differences to take note of. For one, seeds 9 and 10 now have to play on Wednesday, facing the 16 and 15 seeds, respectively. Seeds 5-8 get a day of rest while seeds 1-4, per usual, won’t start play until Friday.

SEC action until this point in the season has already filled in a few seeds for the above bracket. Auburn locked up the No. 1 seed a few days ago when Jahmai Mashack dispatched Alabama at the buzzer. And Florida, thanks to its win over Alabama and Tennessee’s loss to Ole Miss on Wednesday, is now locked into the 2-seed just behind the Tigers.

The other end of the seed list is officially set as well. LSU and South Carolina sit at the bottom of the SEC standings more than 1 game removed from Oklahoma in 14th place. And because LSU beat South Carolina earlier this season, the Tigers are locked into the 15-seed while the Gamecocks are stuck with the 16-seed.

Seeds 3-14 are where things go completely off the rails. Here’s a breakdown for each matchup on Saturday:

Kentucky at Mizzou

• Seed range for Kentucky: 5-8
• Seed range for Mizzou: 4-8

This game holds perhaps the most weight of any matchup on Saturday. As it sits right now, Mizzou is in 6th place while Kentucky is in 8th place. Both can rise as high as 5 and as low as 8 (there is one very specific scenario where Mizzou can claim the 4-seed).

The Wildcats and Tigers have not yet played each other this season and their record is separated by just one game. Both fanbases will need to pay attention to Texas A&M/LSU and especially Ole Miss/Florida.

If Missouri beats Kentucky, this whole thing becomes a lot easier to understand. The Wildcats would be locked into the 8-seed (tiebreaker over MSU should the Bulldogs win) and Mizzou would earn either the 4, 5 or 6 seed, depending on Texas A&M/LSU and Tennessee/South Carolina. Assuming a Mizzou win, the Tigers get the 5-seed if LSU beats Texas A&M. If Texas A&M beats LSU, the Aggies get the 5-seed and Mizzou gets the 6-seed.

In the very specific case that Mizzou beats Kentucky, Ole Miss beats Florida, LSU beats Texas A&M and South Carolina beats Tennessee, the Tigers would earn the 4-seed (and a double bye) through a 3-game tiebreaker with Ole Miss and Tennessee at 11-7. If Ole Miss loses, Missouri would be the 5-seed since the Tigers do not hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with Tennessee.

If Kentucky wins, things get absolutely insane — but what’s important to know is Kentucky would likely get the 6-seed or the 7-seed.

In this scenario, Ole Miss/Florida will be that much more important. A Kentucky win and Florida win would put the Wildcats as the 6-seed, assuming Texas A&M handles LSU. If LSU and Florida win, Kentucky would draw the 5-seed with Texas A&M as the 6, Mizzou as the 7 and Ole Miss as the 8.

A Kentucky win, Ole Miss win and Texas A&M win would give Kentucky the 7-seed and Missouri the 8-seed. A Kentucky win, Ole Miss win and LSU win would give the Wildcats the 6-seed.

Mississippi State at Arkansas

• Seed range for Mississippi State: 9-11
• Seed range for Arkansas: 9-12

This is the first time Mississippi State and Arkansas have faced off this season, and the Bulldogs already have a game on the Razorbacks. Unlike the above monstrosity, MSU and Arkansas fans only need to keep their eyes on one other matchup Saturday: Vanderbilt at Georgia. Let’s try to keep this as simple as possible:

If Mississippi State wins, the Bulldogs lock up the 9-seed. In that scenario, a Georgia win would send Arkansas all the way down to the 12-seed. However, a MSU win and Vanderbilt win would give Arkansas the 11-seed.

If Arkansas and Vanderbilt win, the Razorbacks would draw the 10-seed while Mississippi State draws the 11-seed. If Arkansas and Georgia win, The Razorbacks would get the 9-seed while MSU gets the 10-seed.

Because Arkansas holds the tiebreaker over Texas and Mississippi State is 2 games ahead of the Longhorns, Texas/Oklahoma has no impact on MSU or Arkansas’s seeding.

Vanderbilt at Georgia

• Seed range for Vanderbilt: 9-12
• Seed range for Georgia: 10-12

Like the above matchup, Georgia and Vanderbilt fans only have to pay attention to one other matchup on Saturday: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas. Let’s break it down:

If Vanderbilt wins, Georgia will be the 12-seed. The Commodores would get the 9-seed if Arkansas beats Mississippi State, and the 10-seed if Mississippi State beats Arkansas. Simple enough.

If Georgia wins, the Bulldogs and Commodores both want Mississippi State to beat Arkansas. This would give Georgia the 10-seed and Vanderbilt the 11-seed. If Georgia wins and Arkansas beats MSU, Georgia draws the 11-seed with Vanderbilt as the 12-seed.

South Carolina at Tennessee

• Seed range for Tennessee: 3-6
• Seed range for South Carolina: 16 (lock)

Tennessee vs. South Carolina is likely not going to decide anything. If Tennessee wins — and the Vols are heavy favorites at home — South Carolina stays put and the Vols get either a 3 or 4 seed, depending on Alabama/Auburn. However, there is a very specific group of results that could plummet the Vols to as low as 6 in the event of a loss.

If Tennessee wins and Alabama loses, the Vols will claim the 3-seed. If Tennessee wins and Alabama wins, the Vols will get the 4-seed. Pretty straightforward.

Things get really, really complicated if South Carolina wins on Saturday. Almost too complicated to describe in a coherent, convenient manner.

Here’s the gist: Tennessee cannot afford to be in a tiebreaker scenario with Ole Miss unless Missouri and Texas A&M are also involved. The Vols would win the 4-team tiebreaker in that scenario. If the Vols were to find themselves in a 3-way tiebreaker with Ole Miss and one of Texas A&M or Missouri, they will not get a double bye (in fact, they’d likely draw the 6-seed). For that reason, Vols fans should be rooting hard for Florida if South Carolina happens to pull off the upset.

Alabama at Auburn

• Seed range for Alabama: 3-4
• Seed range for Auburn: 1 (lock)

This is both the most exciting and least exciting matchup of the afternoon. For one, it’s Alabama/Auburn. For another, it has very little seeding implications.

As mentioned, Auburn is a lock for the 1-seed. Alabama is 1 game ahead of 4th place Tennessee, which is 1 game ahead of current 5th place Texas A&M, which means the Tide are going to get at least a 4-seed.

If Alabama beats Auburn, the Crimson Tide secure the 3-seed. If Alabama loses to Auburn and Tennessee beats South Carolina, the Tide will be the 4-seed. And of course, if Alabama loses to Auburn and South Carolina beats Tennessee, the Crimson Tide will retain the 3-seed.

Texas A&M at LSU

• Seed range for Texas A&M: 4-7
• Seed range for LSU: 15 (lock)

That wacky scenario above where Tennessee falls out of a double bye would benefit Texas A&M, and it’s also the only way the Aggies could secure a double bye themselves. If Texas A&M beats LSU, South Carolina beats Tennessee, Kentucky beats Missouri and Ole Miss beats Florida, the Aggies would land the 4-seed with Ole Miss as the 5 and Tennessee as the 6. This has less than a 1% chance of happening.

Texas A&M cannot be lower than a 5-seed if it beats LSU on Saturday. And obviously, the Tigers are locked into the 15-seed. An LSU win flips things on its head.

The Aggies can fall as low as the 7-seed if they lose to LSU on Saturday, and the 2 games to keep an eye on if this happens are Kentucky/Missouri and Ole Miss/Florida. A loss to LSU necessitates that Kentucky or Missouri will be above the Aggies, either through a 3-way tiebreaker at 10-8 (in the event of a Kentucky win) or a Missouri win over Kentucky that would improve the Tigers’ record to 11-7. There is no way for both Kentucky and Mizzou to be above Texas A&M come next week.

Then there’s Ole Miss to worry about. If Florida wins, there is no way the Aggies can fall below the Rebels on the seed line – win or lose. But if Ole Miss beats Florida, there is no way Texas A&M can be above the Rebels in the case of an Aggies loss to LSU.

All that to say: You’ll want to win on Saturday, Texas A&M.

Ole Miss at Florida

• Seed range for Florida: 2 (lock)
• Seed range for Ole Miss: 4-8

Ole Miss at Florida is the 2nd most important SEC game being played this week as it pertains to SEC Tournament seeding.

Let’s go over the scenarios that involve Ole Miss winning first. The Rebels lost to both Missouri and Texas A&M in the regular season, and all 3 squads sit at 10-7 heading into the final Saturday. Kentucky is 1 back at 9-8 with Tennessee 1 ahead at 11-6. Thanks to Wednesday’s win, Ole Miss possesses the tiebreaker with Tennessee, but would not come out on top in a 3 or 4-team tiebreaker scenario. For that reason, Ole Miss’s only path to a double bye (4-seed) demands that Texas A&M, Missouri and Tennessee all lose.

To keep it simple, just keep in mind that the Rebels do not control their own destiny — even granted a win over Florida. If Ole Miss wants the 5-seed, it would need both Texas A&M and Missouri to lose. It would receive the 6-seed if one or the other lose. Finally, a Rebels win over Florida would still yield the 7-seed if neither Texas A&M or Missouri lose.

A Florida win would mean Ole Miss cannot be higher than a 7-seed come next week, again thanks to its poor tiebreaker situation. If Ole Miss loses, the Rebels will want Missouri to beat Kentucky, which would keep the Wildcats 1 game behind Ole Miss as the 8 seed while the Rebels snag the 7-seed. If Kentucky did win that game, the Rebels would draw the 8-seed.

Oklahoma at Texas

• Seed range for Texas: 13-14
• Seed range for Oklahoma: 13-14

Texas and Oklahoma are battling for the 13-seed. Very exciting, we know. Because of Oklahoma’s record and Texas’s poor tiebreaker status, neither can jump up nor affect another team’s seeding from around the SEC.

This game is still incredibly important, though. Both the Sooners and Longhorns are on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament, so a win in this situation may very well be the deciding factor come Selection Sunday. Texas especially is likely in the field with a win over their rival Saturday.

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.