Tennessee basketball: Evaluating the Vols’ draw, potential matchups and a prediction

Tennessee basketball would have scored a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament just about any other year. But not 2025 — a season that has produced perhaps the very best group of 1-seeds the Big Dance has ever seen.

That’s hardly even an opinion at this point, either. This season’s strength on the 1-line has been proven analytically by KenPom, EvanMiya, Will Warren, CBS, Bob down the street and so on. One of Auburn, Florida, Houston or Duke seems very likely to cut down the nets in a few weeks, and Tennessee/Alabama are the only 2 with serviceable betting odds in comparison.

So where does that leave the Vols, a group that beat both Auburn, Florida and 2-seed Alabama? Did the Vols receive an unsatisfactory draw thanks to an unusually strong group of 1-seeds?

My immediate and firm answer to that question is a resounding “no,” for a few reasons. Let’s take a look at Tennessee’s first weekend draw, examine reasons why Tennessee can and can’t succeed in the coming weeks and lay down a prediction for Tennessee’s outcome at the best tournament in sports.

Tennessee’s First Weekend

If you take the best available seed and assume Tennessee keeps winning, the Vols’ hypothetical championship path would be this: Wofford, UCLA, Kentucky, Houston, Duke, Auburn. Of course, take that with a grain of salt — the NCAA Tournament is by design chaotic and unforgiving for top seeds. It’s all about matchups in March, and I’d argue Tennessee’s outlook is as favorable as any top-2 seed in the field.

This is especially relevant for their first weekend. Let’s start at the top with Tennessee’s only guaranteed opponent — Wofford.

Wofford Terriers (19-15, 10-8 SoCon)

The Terriers earned the 6-seed in the SoCon Tournament and made their way to the dance with a tight win over rival Furman, the 5-seed. In other words, Wofford is just happy to be here.

Wofford’s path to an upset depends on its offense — the one redeeming quality for this squad. The Terriers are not a particularly tall group (303rd in average height out of 364) but they do secure a lot of offensive boards and have a strong hit rate from within the 3-point line. But partially because of that height setback, the Terriers find themselves chucking a lot of 3s with a 34.5% success rate (a fair 138th in the country per KenPom). Regardless, their tenacity on the boards means the Terriers didn’t give up a lot of empty possessions in SoCon play — especially when those offensive boards lead to wide open 3-pointers.

I’m skeptical that success will or even can translate to Thursday’s matchup against the Vols, who boast the top perimeter defense in the sport. Tennessee is built to suffocate teams like Wofford with relentless ball pressure from Zakai Zeigler and Jahmai Mashack.

Not to mention, the Terriers have a truly dreadful defense. It’s the reason they finished 6th in their conference, and it’s the reason why Tennessee should have no problem breaking 80 or 90 on Thursday. Wofford doesn’t force turnovers and is particularly woeful guarding the perimeter. Zeigler, Jordan Gainey and Chaz Lanier should have a field day. Crazier things have happened in March, but the outlook just isn’t good for an upset here.

Assuming the Terriers don’t revert to their 2019 squad that upset Seton Hall, Tennessee’s next opponent will be one of 7-seed UCLA or 10-seed Utah State.

UCLA Bruins (22-10, 13-7 B1G)

Any team can beat you in the NCAA Tournament, and there are definitely paths for both Utah State or UCLA to pull off an upset here in the 2nd round.

For what it’s worth, it’s my opinion that the Vols match up better with UCLA. The Bruins play at a slower pace and boast a defense that forces a metric ton of turnovers — more than any team Tennessee has faced this season — but doesn’t do a whole lot of anything else.

This Bruins defense would likely have a tough time against Tennessee’s scoring style. The Vols aren’t much of a threat in the post, but UCLA struggles to guard that area without fouling. Instead, Tennessee moves the ball very well and is good at finding open shots from beyond the arc and off curls for Chaz Lanier and Jordan Gainey. UCLA’s perimeter defense allows a lot of open 3s, which Wisconsin, Purdue and Illinois all took advantage of this past month. The Bruins are physical and will wear you out on defense, but there are definitely chinks in the armor.

Offensively, UCLA is fair from outside and good inside, but not truly great anywhere. Eric Dailey could be a problem for the Vols frontcourt, though — he’s been a force as of late and the Vols’ duo of Igor Milicic and Cade Phillips have struggled against offensively adept 4s at times this season.

Utah State Aggies (26-7, 15-5 MW)

Utah State has a really interesting team this season. The Aggies are also exactly the type of team that gave the Vols trouble earlier in the year, though I’m still not sure it would be enough to overcome Tennessee this time around.

Utah State loves to shoot the 3, and it boasts a solid hit rate at 35.8%. Like Tennessee, the Aggies move the ball exceptionally well. Unlike Tennessee, the Aggies are strong inside with Aubin Gateretse and Karson Templin near the glass. Drake Allen, Ian Martinez and Mason Falslev do a great job feeding Gateretse and Templin, too. It’s not a perfect comparison as the Aggies put a bigger emphasis on offensive boards, but Utah State’s playstyle bears a resemblance to Kentucky — which beat Tennessee twice.

Defensively, Utah State is unique but not necessarily scary for a squad like the Vols. The Aggies run a matchup zone almost exclusively, which Tennessee has not faced this season, at least not to this extent. This zone does a great job of confusing the opponent and forcing turnovers, mostly effective against weaker offenses that struggle to move the ball. Tennessee’s unit is veteran and moves the ball very well, so they’ll have plenty of opportunity to light it up from range if the 2 teams match up.

Why Tennessee Can and Can’t Succeed in March Madness

Tennessee basketball has already proven it can beat anyone you put in front of it.

Despite Tennessee’s loss to Florida in the SEC Tournament, it’s hard to come away from the weekend feeling unsatisfied with the Vols. Chaz Lanier is playing as well as he has all season, as are Zakai Zeigler at the point and Felix Okpara down low. Perhaps most crucially, Jordan Gainey has developed into a 3-level threat and an excellent 3rd scoring option — his 15-point outing against Auburn fueled the win, and it wasn’t even his best performance of the weekend. Gainey beat Illinois at the buzzer earlier this season and has a simply lethal midrange pull-up that is nearly impossible to guard when he’s on. I don’t mean to be dramatic — nobody apart from a 1-seed is beating Tennessee if Gainey continues at this rate offensively.

Some Vols fans may roll their eyes at this, but I’ve been impressed with Hofstra transfer Darlinstone Dubar off the bench, too. Dubar isn’t a high-volume guy, but he scored some quietly important buckets against Auburn and showed off an ability to bully his way to the rim. I’m very interested to see if that continues in any fashion heading into the tournament, as any positive contribution from Dubar is a welcome sight for the Vols moving forward.

Defensively, Tennessee is not going to falter. You can bet the farm on that. If the Vols are to lose earlier than anticipated, it’ll likely have to do with one of 2 important factors: rebounding and/or streaky shooting.

The Vols have not been as streaky this season as some Barnes teams in the past, but that doesn’t mean they’re immune to posting some stinkers from range. Gainey and Lanier – especially Gainey – have had stretches of rough 3-point shooting this year, and it gets really difficult to put points on the board when shots from those 2 aren’t falling. Felix Okpara and Cade Phillips are already limited offensively, and Igor Milicic has really struggled as of late on both sides of the ball. Teams with a competent, multi-faceted offense will make Tennessee pay if Gainey, Zeigler and Lanier aren’t connecting.

Unfortunately, I’m not done targeting Milicic. The Charlotte transfer has shown excellent flashes this season, and he was a superb rebounder in November and December. But it hasn’t felt like Milicic has played to his potential in some time, both offensively and on the boards. The Vols need Milicic to contribute positively against top-tier opponents for a championship run to even be considered.

A team that’s really strong inside and has guards that can withstand Zeigler and Mashack can beat this Tennessee team. Kentucky, Florida, Auburn and Ole Miss have shown that already this season. Should the Vols draw Kentucky in the Sweet Sixteen, things could get dicey. Gonzaga, Purdue and especially Houston also fit that bill on the other side of the Midwest region.

Prediction

Great defense and stellar, veteran guard play usually takes teams far in the NCAA Tournament, and Tennessee has both. Tennessee has wins over Florida, Auburn, Alabama, Texas A&M and many more excellent college basketball teams this season. The Vols can beat anyone on any given night.

For that reason, I’d be surprised if Tennessee doesn’t at least make it to the second weekend. From there it gets a lot tougher — shocking, I know. Houston is the weakest of the 1-seeds, and facing Gonzaga in the Round of 32 is a tough, tough draw for Kelvin Sampson’s group. Kentucky, therefore, seems like the most likely team to knock off the Volunteers in the Midwest, followed by the Cougars and… Purdue.

Regardless, I’m going to say it with my chest — I think this is the Tennessee team that will advance to the Final Four for the first time in school history. Give me Tennessee to beat Wofford, UCLA, Illinois and Gonzaga before falling to Duke in San Antonio.

Ethan Stone

Ethan Stone is a Tennessee graduate and loves all things college football and college basketball. Firm believer in fouling while up 3.