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Tennessee game vs. Houston in Elite Eight has historically low point total
By Sydney Hunte
Published:
Tennessee will face Houston in the Elite Eight on Sunday. A win would give the Vols their first Final Four appearance in program history.
Tennessee was beaten by Purdue in 2024’s Midwest regional final, and it’ll be looking to get over the hump in what will be its third overall Elite Eight appearance. The Cougars are seeking a second Final Four berth in the last 5 seasons.
Vegas sees the game as a rather low-scoring affair. Historically low, for that matter. At bet365, the projected point total for the game is 124. At some shops, it opened around 121 and stayed in that realm.
If the number closes under 125, Tennessee-Houston will join some rare company. Since the beginning of the 2010 NCAA Tournament, 61 games have had an over/under below 125, according to BetIQ. The vast majority of those games, however, have taken place during the opening weekend of the tournament. Just 6 games in the Sweet 16 and beyond during that timeframe have had a total under 125.
And only 2 games since the start of the 2010 tournament that took place after the Sweet 16 have had a point total below 125: 2019’s national championship between Virginia and Texas Tech and Virginia’s 2016 Elite Eight matchup with Syracuse. In both cases, both cleared the projected total.
The over is 37-24 across all 61 such games since the start of the 2010 tournament.
In the 6 games that have taken place in or beyond the Sweet 16, the over is 3-3.
That 124.5 number could inch up or down by the time tipoff rolls around, but for now, oddsmakers think defense will win out in this one. According to KenPom, Houston and Tennessee have the 2 best defenses of any remaining team in the NCAA Tournament field. The Cougars rank No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency while Tennessee ranks No. 3.
Tennessee is giving up just 61.7 points per game so far in the NCAA Tournament. Houston’s opponents have averaged just 58.7 points per game.
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Sydney is an Atlanta-based journalist who has covered everything from SEC and ACC football to MLS, the U.S. men's national soccer team and professional tennis. His work has appeared on such platforms as SB Nation, Cox Media Group and FanSided.
