Which coaches are the best (and worst) to bet on in March Madness?

March Madness begins in earnest with the Field of 64 getting underway on Thurdsay. 

As fans from around the country hustle to fill out their brackets and betslips, it’s worth considering what coaches are historically-proven in the Big Dance. 

Thanks to BartTorvik’s PASE (performance above seed expectations) metric, we can attempt to use recent history to predict what coaches are good bets in the NCAA Tournament. To account for college basketball’s ever-changing style while also ensuring a significant sample size, we’re going to set limit parameters for this exercise to the last 10 NCAA Tournaments.

With that being said, here are the coaches to bet on — or against — in March Madness. 

Coaches to bet on in March Madness

These are the guys you want to back when the calendar turns to March:

Mark Few, Gonzaga

Although Mark Few hasn’t won the big one yet, he’s arguably been the NCAA Tournament’s best coach without a national title over the last decade. He’s 28-10 in the Big Dance overall and has a PASE of 6.5, which leads all coaches since 2014.

Gonzaga is in an interesting position this year because it’s an 8-seed. It’s the lowest seed the Bulldogs have earned since 2016 when they were an 11-seed (and ultimately reached the Sweet 16). The Bulldogs have not been ousted in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2008. 

Gonzaga has not been particularly good as underdog in the NCAA Tournament over this stretch — just 1-5 straight up. With that in mind, backing the Bulldogs to beat Houston in Round 2 may not be particularly wise. But Few has been dominant straight up as a favorite of 6 points or more — 20-2 over this span. Gonzaga is favored by 6.5 against Georgia in Round 1, per BetMGM. 

Dan Hurley, UConn

Unsurprisingly, Dan Hurley finds his way onto this list. Hurley is 14-4 in the NCAA Tournament over the last decade, which includes a stint as Rhode Island’s head coach. He made the 2nd round twice with the Rams, including once in 2018 when his squad upset Trae Young and Oklahoma. 

Of course, Hurley has since gone on to win multiple national championships as UConn’s head coach. The Huskies find themselves in an unusual position this year, though, as a No. 8 seed. Still, Hurley’s track record in March shouldn’t be ignored. He has a PASE of 5.5 since 2014, which is second only to Few. 

It’s worth noting that Hurley’s first-round counterpart, Oklahoma coach Porter Moser, also scores very highly in this metric. Moser is 6th among active coaches since 2014 with a PASE of 4.6. All of his previous work in the NCAA Tournament during this span came at Loyola-Chicago. 

Dana Altman, Oregon

Dana Altman has quietly been one of the nation’s most-dependable coach in the NCAA Tournament over the last decade. He has a PASE of 5.2, which is third among active head coaches to only Few and Hurley. 

In 20 games over the past 10 NCAA Tournaments, Altman is 14-6 against the spread and 13-7 straight up. Oregon moneyline bettors over the past decade would be up more than 3.7 units across those 20 games. 

As a favorite in the NCAA Tournament over this span, Altman is 8-1 straight up and 6-3 against the spread. This year, the 5th-seeded Ducks are 6.5-point favorites over 12-seeded Liberty, per ESPN BET. Oregon is also +215 to reach the Sweet 16. 

Coaches to bet against in March Madness

These are the guys who have underperformed during the toughest month on the college hoops calendar:

Shaka Smart, Marquette

Shaka Smart made his reputation in coaching back in 2011 when he brought Virginia Commonwealth to the Final Four. But since then, Smart has been the most underachieving coach in the sport in the NCAA Tournament. He has a PASE of -7.8 since 2014, which is dead last out of 289 qualified coaches. 

Smart is just 3-8 overall in the NCAA Tournament across stints with VCU, Texas and Marquette over that span. Despite leading a top-2 seed twice, he’s only reached the Sweet 16 once in 8 tournament appearances since 2014. 

Moneyline bettors who chose to fade Smart in every March Madness game since 2014 would have been rewarded handsomely. If you bet $100 on Smart’s opponent in all 11 games over this span, you’d be up nearly 10 units. His résumé includes losses to underdogs of +200 or more on 3 different occasions, including as recently as last season vs. 11th-seeded NC State in the Sweet 16. 

Bill Self, Kansas

This is a bit counterintuitive as Self has established himself as one of college basketball’s beset coaches over the past 25 years or so. But he’s consistently under-performed seed expectations over the past decade, placing 237th out of 239 qualified coaches in BartTorvik’s PASE metric. 

Self is 22-9 and has won a national championship over this period, so it’s not all bad. But the Jayhawks endured embarrassingly-early exits in 2014, 2015 and 2023. They also failed to meet seed expectations in 2016, 2017, 2019, 2021 and 2024. 

Kansas is in an unusual spot this season as a No. 7 seed. It’s KU’s worst seed in the NCAA Tournament since 2000 when Roy Williams was still in charge. Since the 2014 tournament, Kansas is 14-17 against the spread. When favored by 5 points or less (as they are vs. Arkansas on Thursday), KU is 6-2 straight up and 3-5 against the spread over that span. Should KU advance to face 2-seed St. John’s, it’s worth noting the Jayhawks are 1-4 straight up and ATS as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament over this stretch.

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.