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1 reason to be skeptical about each SEC quarterback in the early 2025 Heisman Trophy discussion
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If you’re a hater, you’ve come to the right place.
SEC quarterbacks will get plenty of love this offseason. Even after a disappointing season at the position, 9 of the top 20 preseason Heisman Trophy favorites are SEC quarterbacks (via FanDuel). It’s still the position that produced 3 of the last 6 winners, so it makes sense that the position is heavily hyped in that regard.
But let’s say you’re not on board with the hype. In this world, you need a reason to not be all in one of those quarterbacks. Whether that’s to talk yourself out of a preseason Heisman Trophy bet or to convince yourself that your rival won’t be as good as everyone thinks, fear not. I’ve got you covered.
Here’s 1 reason to be skeptical about each of those 9 SEC quarterbacks with top-20 Heisman odds:
Arch Manning, Texas — The inexperienced offensive line
It’s an offensive line that has 4 new starters with the lone returner being right guard DJ Campbell. That’s daunting for a new starting quarterback, even one as decorated as Manning. And yes, I’m a huge Trevor Goosby believer. Shoot, I’m a believer in offensive line coach Kyle Flood, who might be on the short list of the most respected assistants in the sport. But with Manning, the biggest area where he needs to take his mental clock. He likes to work through his progressions, and with that, there’s a high level of trust in the offensive line. Manning, like many redshirt freshmen, looked a second too slow. If the offensive line is a work in progress and not the stable force it was in 2024, that step will be magnified.
Garrett Nussmeier, LSU — A non-mobile QB who lost 3-year starters at tackle
I have Nussmeier as my top returning quarterback in the SEC, so clearly, I’m not a skeptic. I am, however, inclined to reference that it’s significant that he lost 3-year starters at tackle like Will Campbell and Emery Jones Jr. Those guys were as reliable as it gets. It was easy to forget that Nussmeier was a first-time starter because of how confident he looked in the pocket. Even with Brian Kelly’s history of developing offensive linemen, there’s no guarantee that a pair of underclassmen starters will step in and play at an All-SEC level from the jump. The good news for Nussmeier is that even if that is a weakness, one would think Year 2 as a starter will have him better prepared to handle that. The bad news is that Nussmeier had 10 turnover-worthy plays when under pressure (T-12th most in FBS). That’s a major box for LSU to check in 2025.
Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee — Where are the safety blankets?
You can say that the 2024 Tennessee receivers were disappointing. That’s fine. I won’t try to talk you into why losing this group was like losing the 2022 group. But at the same time, ask yourself this; who is Iamaleava going to trust from the jump? His top returning pass-catcher is former Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell II, who hit 3 catches in just 2 SEC games. He’s the only returning wide receiver with more than 10 catches. Mike Matthews was mostly a non-factor as a true freshman, and he’ll have to make a leap after he reportedly planned on entering the transfer portal (but didn’t). Tight end Miles Kitselman could turn into the safety blanket for Iamaleava after he caught 81.5% of his targets without a drop, and 16 of his catches came in the latter half of the season. Iamaleava’s 2024 usage suggests that even if Josh Heupel lets him air it out more — he was No. 12 in the SEC with 14.9% of his passes traveling 20 yards — he’s going to rely heavily on finding reliable targets in the short-to-intermediate. That’ll determine Tennessee’s 2025 ceiling.
LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina — New OC Mike Shula
Dowell Loggains was a heavily criticized hire when Shane Beamer made it, and it turned out to be an essential piece of the best post-Steve Spurrier season in Columbia. Loggains did exceptional things to work with pre-Draft Spencer Rattler, and the development we saw from Sellers from September to November was among the most drastic transformations in the country. South Carolina promoted Shula from his analyst role. That formula was basically what occurred at Beamer’s last 2 stops, Georgia and Oklahoma, promoted analysts to OC and it had mixed results. Shula, like Loggains, has mostly had an NFL background outside of being Nick Saban’s predecessor at Alabama. Shula will get the benefit of working with 1 of the top 10 returning quarterbacks in the sport. Can he scheme guys open better so that the offense can be less reliant on Sellers breaking a million tackles? That’s a massive unknown for someone who’ll be calling plays in the 2020s for the first time.
DJ Lagway, Florida — Billy Napier as a passing-game schemer
Don’t get it twisted. I’m not worried about Lagway’s ability to sling the rock. He’s going to make plenty of jaw-dropping plays, and if Tre Wilson can stay healthy after a lost 2024, there’s a better chance that Florida will have guys who can get separation. But there’s skepticism in the SEC about Napier having the answers as a passing-game schemer. Lagway still needs the ability to have some big throwing windows to complement would should be one of the SEC’s top rushing attacks. Napier hasn’t shown that he could do that yet. Graham Mertz could stay on schedule and take what a defense was giving him. If Florida is going to maximize Lagway’s potential, it needs Napier to make life easier on the face of the program.
John Mateer, Oklahoma — He likes to live … dangerously
I’ve already dubbed Mateer “the ultimate SEC wild card in 2025,” so I’m a bit worried about the downside of the Washington State transfer with a defensive-minded coach like Brent Venables. Why? Here are just a few Jekyll and Hyde stats:
- Allowed 2nd-most sacks of any quarterback in FBS (14), but also finished No. 4 in FBS with a 94.3 NFL quarterback rating under pressure
- 13 turnover-worthy plays when kept clean (tied for 3rd-most in FBS), but also ranked No. 15 in FBS with 16 of PFF’s big-time throws when kept clean
- On throws 20 yards downfield, nobody in FBS threw more interceptions (6), but he also had 12 touchdown passes (T-No. 7 in FBS) in those situations
- Responsible for the 2nd-highest allowed pressure percentage (33.7%) among FBS quarterbacks, but he was also No. 6 in FBS in rushing yards via quarterback scrambles
- 6 games in which he took at least 3 sacks, but he was tied for No. 1 among FBS quarterbacks with 54 missed tackles forced
Mateer is stepping into a situation with the same OC (Ben Arbuckle), but obviously it’s a new set of surroundings after Oklahoma was historically bad on offense. We’ll see how much Mateer’s borderline reckless ways transition into the SEC.
Gunner Stockton, Georgia — Mike Bobo is still his OC
Sorry, but I’m out on Bobo as being the one who can maximize Georgia’s talent. I don’t trust him to find what works for an offense. As much as we know that drops plagued the passing attack in 2024, this is still a group that was wildly inconsistent from quarter to quarter at the end of the season (UGA scored 3 total points in the first half of its final 3 games of the year). Stockton’s sample size didn’t suggest that Georgia was a different offense with him behind center, though obviously that was 6 quarters against 2 of the 3 best pass defenses in the sport. Stockton fared better than many would’ve — the throw to Arian Smith on the right side line vs. Notre Dame was the best of his young career — but it hardly looked like a match made in heaven. Stockton could be held back by not having an elite schemer in his ear.
Austin Simmons, Ole Miss — We’re taking a TON from a 1-drive sample size
I’m guilty of this, too. I saw Simmons step into the game for an injured Jaxson Dart against Georgia and deliver the most important drive of Ole Miss‘ season. Is that fueling a ton of offseason buzz? You bet. It should. He showed incredible poise and full confidence that he could run Lane Kiffin’s offense. It’s also worth noting that Simmons has 16 career pass attempts vs. FBS competition, 6 of which came on that aforementioned drive. There’s still a major learning curve with the southpaw signal-caller. As much as we praise the Lane Kiffin offense for making life easier on a quarterback, Simmons will still have to avoid some of those first-year starter mistakes, especially in the likely event that the Ole Miss defense takes a step back. But if Simmons picks up where he left off against Georgia and becomes an All-SEC guy, we’ll look back on the UGA game as the first sign that he was ready for the big time.
Marcel Reed, Texas A&M — He’s got a long way to go as a passer
Reed did plenty of things at a high level for an A&M team that was the last remaining SEC unbeaten in conference play. That, of course, only happened after Reed relieved Conner Weigman and sparked a complete 180 against LSU. If there’s a knock on Reed, it’s that we didn’t see the passing game progression just yet. Only 14.8% of Reed’s passes were 20-yard throws, which was No. 13 in the SEC, and on those plays, he had an adjusted completion percentage of 27.8%, which was No. 15 among 16 qualified SEC quarterbacks. Reed also finished last among qualified SEC quarterbacks with a 46.2% adjusted completion percentage when under pressure (min. 50 dropbacks under pressure). It’s great that Reed can scramble — he was No. 4 among SEC quarterbacks with 313 scramble yards — but that part of his game needs significant improvement in Year 2 in the Collin Klein offense if A&M wants to stay in the Playoff hunt in 2025.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
