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GAINESVILLE — Florida and Florida State meet Saturday in The Swamp (noon, ESPN) with the two proud programs looking to redeem — at least somewhat — disappointing seasons.
For the first time since 1959, both schools enter the rivalry game with losing records, which certainly takes some luster off a game that used to routinely impact the national championship picture.
From 1990-2001, the schools played 14 times, including twice in bowl games. One of those bowl games was played for a national championship (1996), and on seven other occasions, both teams entered the game ranked in the top 10. FSU won eight of those contests; Florida won five. There was also one infamous tie — “The Choke at Doak” — which still feels like a win to Seminoles and a brutal loss to Gators.
This year, with both Miami and UCF unbeaten, the game isn’t even for in-state supremacy. Regardless of Saturday’s outcome, these two “big three” schools are already guaranteed to finish the year with the worst records of Florida’s seven FBS programs.
But it’s still a big deal to the fan bases and the players, and the winner will get a needed jolt of recruiting momentum heading into the offseason.
Here are 10 bold predictions for Saturday’s battle for the Florida Cup.
Florida will score a touchdown on offense
Don’t laugh.
The Gators haven’t scored an offensive touchdown in this rivalry since Will Muschamp was the head coach. That score came in the third quarter of the 2014 game in Tallahassee. Nine quarters of football have elapsed since.
The Gators have struggled even worse against FSU at home. Florida has scored only two offensive touchdowns against FSU in The Swamp since Tim Tebow was the Gators’ quarterback.
So yeah, it’s a bold prediction to suggest Florida will punch it in on offense.
Florida will get multiple sacks
The Seminoles enter having allowed 30 sacks on the season (115th nationally at 3.0 a game). The Gators rank 19th nationally in defensive-line havoc rate, a disruptive unit that will be one of the best FSU has faced this season. Florida will also benefit from the return of Jachai Polite, an outstanding pass-rusher who is second on the team in hurries (whatever value there is in that statistic). The Noles should struggle to deal with Polite, Taven Bryan and Cece Jefferson, and should surrender some sacks.
Florida State will get multiple sacks too
The Noles’ DL ranks 9th in defensive line havoc rate, and most of that has come in November, when FSU has 11 of its 18 sacks on the season. The Gators are playing without their starting center and with only seven healthy scholarship offensive lineman, and have surrendered 32 sacks on the year (123rd nationally and 3rd worst in the Power 5). This combination, coupled with Feleipe Franks’ continued tendency to hold the ball too long, means FSU’s defense will produce some negative plays as well.
Florida will produce two turnovers
In Florida’s winless October, the Gators produced only two turnovers and scored zero points as a result of those opportunities.
In the last two weeks, the Gators have produced eight turnovers and have won one game convincingly and had a chance to win the other as a result.
Playing with a freshman quarterback since Deondre Francois was lost for the season against Alabama, FSU is 1-4 in games in which James Blackman has thrown an interception. Jimbo Fisher is excellent at simplifying game plans and protecting young quarterbacks, especially on the road, but with Florida’s pass rush, expect a turnover or two.
Eddy Pineiro will hit another 50-yard field goal
The Gators’ placekicker connected on two kicks of 50 or more in last week’s victory over UAB, and has proven himself to be perhaps Florida’s most effective offensive weapon in 2017. While that obviously says something about where Florida is offensively, it also is a luxury to have a kicker who is largely automatic from inside 40 yards and good from as many as 60.With FSU’s defense showing signs of improvement in November, expect the Gators to need Pineiro from 50+ Saturday, and expect the sophomore from Miami to connect.
Auden Tate will have a TD catch for FSU
At 6’4, 220, and with legitimate 4.5 speed, Tate is a matchup nightmare who is at or near the top of most wide receiver draft boards ahead of the 2018 NFL Draft.
Despite his prodigious physical tools, Tate has only caught 31 passes on the year, and he’s been quiet over the last month (7 receptions for only 52 yards in his last four games). But he’s been a touchdown machine, with six touchdowns, and is James Blackman’s top option, for good reason, in the red zone.
Look for FSU to isolate Tate on the smaller Duke Dawson and exploit his speed, leaping ability and big frame. This is almost certainly Tate’s final FSU-Florida game. Expect the junior to make the most of it.
Florida will run for 150+ yards
Traditionally, Florida State has made a living with active, physical defensive fronts that limit what the opponent can do in the running game. And certainly, with personnel like Derrick Nnadi at defensive tackle, it still is capable up front.
But this year, Florida State ranks only 47th nationally in rushing defense and 58th in S&P+ defensive efficiency. In their last three games against Power 5 opponents, the Seminoles have surrendered 241, 227 and 149 yards rushing to Boston College, Clemson and Syracuse, respectively.
The Gators have run the ball effectively most the season, including well over 200 yards rushing (minus sack yardage) against top 20 run defenses in LSU and Georgia.
Lamical Perine, Mark Thompson and Adarius Lemons have done well to pick up the slack for the injured Malik Davis, and it’s safe to expect Florida to continue to have success on the ground.
Cam Akers will run for 100 yards
Florida’s run defense has struggled with consistency. They are 28th in rushing defense S&P+, a respectable number. But the Gators are 121st in explosive plays allowed in the run game, the worst number in the Power 5.
To take pressure off James Blackman and limit turnover risks, Jimbo Fisher will likely trust his defense and try to shorten the game offensively with a healthy dose of freshman tailback Cam Akers to set up a few shots downfield.
Akers has 780 yards in his freshman campaign, and was sensational in the Noles’ heartbreaking loss to Miami, tallying 121 yards on 20 carries. He’s also had a few clunkers — including being limited to 42 yards on 18 carries in FSU’s 35-3 defeat at Boston College.
Akers only quality performance on the road came at Duke (115 yards on 15 carries), but given Florida’s tendency to give up explosive runs, the thinking is that changes Saturday.
FSU will settle for FGs on at least three drives
The Gators’ defense — like most young defenses — has been much better at home, allowing 20 points only once in The Swamp (in a 26-20 win over Tennessee).
What’s more, FSU’s offense is inefficient, heavily reliant on big plays. The Seminoles average only 4.26 points per possession when they move inside the opponent’s 40-yard line, which is 90th nationally and well below the Power 5 average.
We’ve already noted Florida’s tendency to give up explosive plays, but the truth is they’ve limited them at home for the most part. That should continue Saturday, and FSU will need to call on the steady Ricky Aguayo (14 for 17 on FG tries) early and often as the Gators bend but don’t break.
Florida wins
FSU is playing to preserve a shot at a winning season and a bowl game, and to send only the fourth senior class in school history out without a loss to the Gators (Florida has had 11 such senior classes).
The Gators’ few seniors, meanwhile, are playing their final game in The Swamp and trying, one final time, to defeat Florida State.
FSU thinks it is going to win, as evidenced by the fact it rescheduled a lost home game against Louisiana-Monroe for next week, assuming it would beat Florida in Gainesville and could then win the rescheduled game to attain bowl eligibility.
It’s the type of arrogant maneuver that Florida’s players will feed off of, and one reason, among a few — the Jimbo to Texas A&M rumors, the fact this is Florida’s de-facto bowl game under an interim staff, Senior Day — that the intangibles in this game tilt ever so slightly toward Florida.
FSU has dominated this rivalry this decade.
But Florida will celebrate a win Saturday afternoon.
Neil Blackmon covers Florida football and the SEC for SaturdayDownSouth.com. An attorney, he is also a member of the Football and Basketball Writers Associations of America. He also coaches basketball.
