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10 CFB ideas I’m buying or selling after Week 1

Published: Sep 2, 2024 · 12:00 PM EDT

Week 1 is in the books. (Well, almost; FSU plays Boston College on Monday night.)

As with Week 0 last week, this story will break down some advanced stats and insights that should be applicable for anyone interested in betting on college football.

Let’s examine some prevailing narratives and see if they match up with with the underlying data says after Week 1:

Buying: Nico Iamaleava is an elite QB already

Take a bow, Nico. Tennessee’s former 5-star quarterback made his first home start Saturday and did not disappoint. The surface stats are incredible, but the peripherals are nice too: 0 turnover-worthy plays, 10 yards average depth of target and a 91.2 passing grade from PFF. He also showed off his mobility in a big way, even if it didn’t translate to a high rushing total. There may still be growing pains to come against higher levels of competition, but I’m a believer in Iamaleava being an elite QB at this point.

Actionable bet to consider: Tennessee -7.5 vs. NC State (-105 via FanDuel)

Selling: Notre Dame’s offensive line is now a strength

I’ll admit Notre Dame’s offensive line was much more effective than I thought it would be against Texas A&M, particularly in the running game. All credit to the Fighting Irish on that front. But I do have some concerns about how this unit will hold up over the course of the season in pass protection, and Saturday’s win over A&M didn’t do much to change that opinion.

Despite not recording any sacks, A&M pressured Leonard on 11 of his 33 drop-backs on Saturday, per PFF. Leonard did well to evade that pressure, although he wasn’t particularly efficient (2-for-8) as a passer in those situations. As a result, Notre Dame got behind the chains a lot and produced one of the worst passing down rates (41%) in the country for Week 1. The Irish were able to overcome that against A&M, but what happens when they run into better quarterback play down the line?

Even against Northern Illinois this week, I think the Irish might be a bit overvalued coming off a win in College Station.

Actionable bet to consider: Northern Illinois +30 (-100 via bet365)

Buying: Penn State’s new explosive offense

I’ve believed in this Penn State team from the moment the Nittany Lions hired Andy Kotelnicki to be the offensive coordinator. I ranked them No. 5 in our preseason Saturday Down South poll, and they more than paid off that faith in Week 1 against West Virginia.

The Nittany Lions’ offense crushed WVU, turning in an explosive play rate of 18%. That’s outstanding for any team, let alone one like Penn State that has routinely struggled to create big plays in recent years. Drew Allar posted a passer efficiency rating of 229.7, which is higher than any single-game rating he earned in all of 2023. Allar’s average depth-of-target also hit 12 yards in a single game for the first time in his career. And he did all of this without any turnover-worthy plays in a hostile environment in Morgantown. It’s an excellent start to a pivotal year for Allar and the Nittany Lions.

Selling: Oregon has problems it can’t fix

Oregon produced one of the more stunning final scores of the day on Saturday: Oregon 24, Idaho 14.

The Vandals were legitimately in this game late, at least technically speaking. But if you look under the hood, Oregon doesn’t have much to be concerned about moving forward. The Ducks had a 47% success rate as Dillon Gabriel threw for 380 yards in his debut. Jordan James, Oregon’s top running back also averaged north of 6 yards per carry.

So what happened? Poor offensive line play was the root of it. But Oregon isn’t fully healthy up front, and Gabriel also suffered a minor hand injury in the first half. It was an underwhelming performance against Idaho, but Gabriel and this Oregon staff have too long of a track record to press the panic button this soon. Gabriel’s Heisman odds in-particular are much cheaper this week than they were before the Idaho game — and I’m not so sure they should be.

Actionable bet to consider: Dillon Gabriel to win the Heisman Trophy (+850 on FanDuel)

Buying: Arizona is the new Texas Tech

This Arizona team reminds me of the Kliff Kingsbury era in Lubbock: plenty of explosive plays on offense, but a defense that will get you beat too often.

Arizona put up 61 points on New Mexico late Saturday night. The peripherals are absurd: 99th percentile EPA, 95th percentile success rate and 93rd percentile explosive play rate.

The problem is that the Wildcats allowed a hapless Lobos team to score 39 of their own. New Mexico, which was a double-digit underdog to an FCS team last week, also posted very strong success rate and EPA figures in this game.

The Noah Fifita-Tetairoa McMillan combo is one of the best QB-WR duos in the country, but it might not translate to wins all that often if the defense doesn’t improve quickly. Arizona faces FCS Northern Arizona in Week 2, but keep an eye on the Wildcats in future weeks.

Selling: Kyle McCord is off to a dream start at Syracuse

Kyle McCord put up some great numbers in his Syracuse debut against Ohio: 354 yards, 4 touchdowns and 1 interception on 39 attempts. It was a good enough debut that his head coach was talking about buying Ryan Day a bottle of champagne in the postgame presser.

But permit me a moment to raise a red flag: McCord posted a turnover-worthy play rate of 9.3% on Saturday against Ohio, which was the second-worst mark by any QB in Week 1 (Graham Mertz, Florida) with a minimum of 20 drop-backs. Turnovers were not a huge issue at Ohio State last season for McCord, but it may take some time before he gets settled in with a new system at Syracuse.

Syracuse’s Week 2 matchup is Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets were excellent at forcing turnovers last season, ranking 2nd in the ACC in that regard.

Actionable bet to consider: Georgia Tech -3 (-110 at Caesars)

Selling: Whatever it is that Wisconsin is attempting to do

Year 2 of the Luke Fickell era is off to a bit of a rough start. The Badgers struggled with Western Michigan in Week 1, winning just 28-14 over the Broncos. Tyler Van Dyke really struggled: 192 yards on 36 attempts. His average depth of target was just 6.2 yards.

Wisconsin had one of the least-explosive offenses in the country for Week 1. The success rate (51%) was good because of a solid running game, but I’m wondering how much that will change in the coming weeks when the Badgers face tougher competition. It’s been awhile since Van Dyke showed any sort of efficiency and I’m not sure the run game will hold up if Wisconsin starts to face loaded boxes. I’m pretty worried about this offense — and this team in general.

Wisconsin gets South Dakota in Week 2, so maybe the Badgers can figure some things out this weekend.

Buying: Maryland might be OK in the post Taulia Tagovailoa era

Look, UConn is bad. There’s no doubt about it. But I’m pretty intrigued by what I saw from Billy Edwards on Saturday in Week 1: 20-of-27 for 311 yards and 2 touchdowns.

For a guy who was billed as a run-first quarterback, Edwards had a pretty darn good day throwing the ball. Beyond the surface stats, Edwards earned a big-time throw rate of 17.9% from PFF — the second-best mark for any QB with at least 20 drop-backs on Saturday. He also kept the ball out of harm’s reach and, of course, was effective as a runner (7.8 yards per carry).

The post-Taulia Tagovailoa era in College Park might not be so bad after-all.

Actionable bet to consider: Maryland -9.5 vs. Michigan State (-110 via FanDuel)

Selling: LSU’s defense

LSU fell 27-20 to USC on Sunday night in Las Vegas. Just by looking at the final score, it might seem that LSU’s defense had a decent night. Holding a Lincoln Riley offense to under 30 points is usually a pretty good sign that your defense was effective. But there are numerous warning signs.

USC had very few problems moving the ball. The Trojans managed 7.68 yards per play and posted a success rate of 51%. The only positive on the night for LSU’s defense was a lack of explosive plays for USC, but even that evaporated in the 4th quarter. The Trojans produced 7 chunk plays in the final stanza alone, including 5 through the air.

New defensive coordinator Blake Baker still has a lot of work to do to get things right defensively in Baton Rouge. LSU will face Nicholls in Week 2.

Selling: Oklahoma looked SEC ready

Oklahoma trounced Temple in the opener, 51-3. But I have some questions about the Sooners moving forward, particularly on offense. Oklahoma managed a success rate of just 40% against a really bad Temple defense. Jackson Arnold averaged just 5.6 yards per attempt. Oklahoma’s WR room seemingly loses a new key player every week (the latest being Jalil Farooq). OU’s starting center, Branson Hickman, also left the game injured.

OU’s lack of efficiency may very well be related to a purposefully-vanilla game plan as Brent Venables suggested in his postgame press conference — but I still think the score line ultimately flatters OU. Six takeaways from the defense is nice, but probably not a repeatable trick. OU likely won’t face a postseason-bound team until it meets Tennessee on Sept. 21, so exploiting any potential weakness here might have to wait a few weeks.

Actionable bet to consider: Oklahoma under 7.5 wins (+100 via DraftKings)

Spenser Davis

Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.