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OK, bear with me, Sooners fans, because this is where the difference between “Power Rankings” that ignore the schedule vs. “Projected Order of Finish” that accounts for the schedule really bears out. While nobody here is getting off easy, schedule-wise — well, maybe Missouri — Oklahoma drew the “Welcome to the Neighborhood” itinerary from hell.
That’s why I picked the Sooners to finish 9th — 9th! — in their debut season in the SEC.
For starters, the Sooners only get 3 SEC games in Norman, with the 4th home date replaced by the annual neutral-site collision with Texas; 2 of those 3 games are heaters against Tennessee (early) and Alabama (late). The road trips: At Auburn, at Ole Miss, at Missouri, at LSU.
Altogether, 6 of their 8 conference games are against opponents ranked in the top 15 of the preseason AP poll, and that’s not including the trip to a “cursed” Jordan-Hare Stadium. All of those games smell like toss-ups.
On the other end of the spectrum, they’re also the only SEC team that doesn’t get to chalk up a routine win against Arkansas, Mississippi State or Vanderbilt. The margins in this league are so thin, these are the kinds of calculations from now on that are going to determine the difference between a sustained Playoff run and Christmas in Shreveport.
Sooners at a Glance …
2023 Recap: 10-3 (7-2 Big 12; Lost Alamo Bowl; 15th AP)
Best Player: DB Billy Bowman Jr.
Best Pro Prospect: LB Danny Stutsman
Best Addition: WR Deion Burks (Purdue)
Best Name: WR Jaquaize Pettaway
Most Grizzled: CB Woodi Washington (6th year; 36 career starts)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore DB Peyton Bowen
Biggest strength: Abundance at wide receiver. Returning starters Nic Anderson and Jalil Farooq averaged a combined 17.9 yards per catch in 2023 with 12 touchdowns; they were both upstaged in the spring by transfer Deion Burks, who’s first up to replace Drake Stoops in the slot. Beyond the top line, 5 other wideouts in the rank-and-file have multiple career TD receptions.
Nagging concern: An offensive line starting over from scratch. All 5 of last year’s OL starters moved on; to fill the void, Oklahoma brought in 5 veteran transfers, only 2 of whom, center Branson Hickman (SMU) and guard Febechi Nwaiwu (North Texas), seemed locked into starting jobs in the spring. The other 3 slots are still up for grabs, including both tackles, which unlike the Big 12 is not a position where you can get away with hiding a weak link for long in the SEC.
Looming question: Is Jackson Arnold ready for primetime? Heir apparent to the sport’s most decorated position since the turn of the century, Arnold takes over as QB1 with the requisite recruiting hype and no competition for the job after sitting behind the Oregon-bound Dillon Gabriel as a freshman. In his first career start last December, he threw 45 times for 361 yards, 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions in an Alamo Bowl loss to Arizona. That kind of boom-to-bust ratio isn’t going to cut it full-time, but for a fledgling talent just getting his feet wet the boom was all that really mattered. Cautious optimism prevails, until further notice.
The schedule: See above. The days of confidently chalking up 10 wins in August are officially over. Welcome to the SEC.
RELATED: Predicting every Oklahoma game in 2024
The upshot
If this was strictly a “Power Rankings” effort, the Sooners would vault into the top 5, which just goes to show how infinitesimal the margins here really are. (I have the spreadsheets to back all this up, for what it’s worth. If I’m wrong, at least I come by it through an honest commitment to minutiae.) No matter how you slice it, unless Arnold is a revelation the gauntlet over the second half of the season sentences them to dark horse status, at best.
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Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
