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Vol stands for volatile: This Tennessee team’s outlook varies widely depending on how many of its aspiring dudes actually pan out.
The new quarterback, sophomore Nico Iamaleava, is a 5-star with a Heisman-caliber ceiling but no meaningful experience prior to last year’s Citrus Bowl. His top wideout, 6th-year senior Bru McCoy, has the ingredients of a star but has yet to put it all together over the course of a checkered college career, including a ghastly ankle injury in 2023 that ended his season in September.
The new left tackle, LSU transfer Lance Heard, was nearly as hyped a prospect as Iamaleava and arrived just as green. And the only known difference-maker on defense, edge rusher James Pearce Jr., still has plenty to prove as an every-down player after breaking out last year as a part-timer.
Altogether, that comes out to just enough potential to give the green light to Playoff expectations in Year 4 under Josh Heupel, and enough uncertainty to keep a foot hovering vigilantly over the brake.
Vols at a Glance …
2023 Recap: 9-4 (4-4 SEC; Won Citrus Bowl; 17th AP)
Best Player: Edge James Pearce Jr.
Best Pro Prospect: Pearce
Best Addition: OL Zalance Heard (LSU)
Best Name: WR Chas Nimrod
Most Grizzled: OL Javontez Spraggins (5th year; 37 career starts at guard)
Emerging Dude: Sophomore QB Nico Iamaleava
Biggest strength: Options galore at wide receiver. McCoy is a wild card coming off a major injury, but between McCoy, Squirrel White in the slot, former blue-chip Dont’e Thornton, Tulane transfer Chris Brazzell, and 5-star freshman Mike Matthews, there’s a WR1 in there somewhere waiting to break out.
Nagging concern: An entirely rebuilt secondary made up of underclassmen and replacement-level transfers. Last year’s DB rotation didn’t exactly set a high bar, but it was more nondescript than it was a liability. For this year’s group, that might be the best-case scenario.
Looming question: Is Nico Iamaleava The One? Iamaleava was not merely hyped: As Tennessee’s first 5-star quarterback recruit since Peyton Manning, it was more like he was anointed, particularly with his enrollment coming in the wake of the Vols’ best season in ages in 2022. After idling in ’23 behind enigmatic senior Joe Milton, his first career start, a 35-0 win over Iowa on Jan. 1, doubled as the official launch of the 2024 Iamaleava bandwagon. Preseason expectations have not been this high for any quarterback in Knoxville, rising or established, since you-know-who. His bid to meet them is a season-defining variable, both in the SEC and potentially across the entire sport.
The schedule: The Third Saturday in October rivalry with Alabama survived the post-expansion shake-up, which along with trips to Oklahoma early and Georgia late leaves no wiggle room in pursuit of 10 wins. Oddly, the SEC schedule opens with back-to-back road games, then returns to Knoxville for the next 4 in a row before sending the Vols on the road again for the last 2; throw in a post-Bama open date, and that leaves them with a 6-week span between road trips.
RELATED: Predicting every Tennessee game in 2024
The upshot
Tennessee isn’t far enough removed from the dark ages yet to take 9-win seasons for granted. But the 2023 team was a letdown, going 0-4 in the 4 biggest games of the season (Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Georgia) by increasingly uncompetitive scores.
If Iamaleava pans out, that will go down as a minor glitch in the Vols’ resurgence. If not, though, the shelf life for optimism has never been shorter.
Matt Hinton, author of 'Monday Down South' and our resident QB guru, has previously written for Dr. Saturday, CBS and Grantland.
