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The SEC got a strong reminder last January about how much a few high-profile bowl results can influence the perception of a conference.
The West Division went 2-5, including big-time losses by Alabama, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, LSU and Auburn. That led to an offseason of negative national talk about the SEC.
It’s fun to compare conferences during bowl season, sample size be damned.
All the bowl win totals exclude a potential College Football Playoff championship appearance. An Alabama national championship, for instance, wouldn’t give the SEC an extra “bowl win” in this prop bet.
We’ll see how true the Vegas projections are, but the Big Ten may be in for a depressing offseason, while the Pac-12 and SEC may have plenty to celebrate.
Here are the over/under bowl win totals for each power conference, along with some analysis.
ACC: 5.5
There’s Clemson and Florida State, and then there’s everyone else. As long as the other seven aren’t a collective embarrassment, the ACC will be judged for what those two teams do this postseason. Unbeaten and No. 1 Clemson is an underdog against the No. 4 seed in the College Football Playoff, which tells you something about the perception of this conference.
Over or under?: Virginia Tech and FSU are comfortable favorites. Beyond that, the lines for ACC teams are, respectively: +2.5, +2, +3, -2.5, +5, -4.5 and +3.5. Expect some very close games. The ACC is the weakest power conference in 2015, but with five narrow Vegas underdogs, I’m expecting at least six bowl wins here.
Number of total bowl games: 9
Current Vegas projection: 5-4
Biggest underdog: North Carolina State +5 vs. Mississippi State
Biggest favorite: Virginia Tech -14 vs. Tulsa
BIG 12: 2.5
Everything worked out for the Big 12 in the regular season. Despite blood-letting at the top of the conference in November, Oklahoma survived and advanced to the College Football Playoff. Securing seven bowl teams without Texas — in a 10-team league that includes Kansas and Iowa State — is impressive. But the Big 12 still needs at least two wins from the pool of OU, TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma State, or heavy criticism will begin anew.
Over or under?: The Big 12’s three bowl favorites are just minus-5.5 collectively, while the four underdogs are a collective plus-29. Even if the Sooners win, the conference is going to have trouble finding more than two other wins.
Number of total bowl games: 7
Current Vegas projection: 3-4
Biggest underdog: Kansas State +12.5 vs. Arkansas
Biggest favorite: Oklahoma -3.5 vs. Clemson
BIG TEN: 4.5
Michigan State is one of the weaker Big Ten champions in recent years, and if Alabama beats the Spartans handily, it will undo some of the good this league has done in terms of public perception. But the Big Ten’s strength in 2015 is that it boasts three, maybe four very good teams. The country will pay attention to the performances of Ohio State, Michigan and Iowa.
Over or under?: The Big Ten has the highest percentage of significant underdogs, with five teams sitting at plus-6.5 or worse. Indiana also is a short favorite. To get to five or more wins, the Big Ten is going to need an upset or two.
Number of total bowl games: 10
Current Vegas projection: 4-6
Biggest underdog: Michigan State +9.5 vs. Alabama
Biggest favorite: Ohio State -6.5 vs. Notre Dame
PAC-12: 6.5
We came very close to 9-3 as the best regular-season record of any team in the conference. With Oregon taking a half-step back following the conclusion of the Marcus Mariota era, Stanford assumed the role of torch-bearer, but lost two games by mid-November. So, no playoff for the Pac-12 this year. Those two teams — Oregon against TCU and Stanford against Iowa — have a chance to gain back some credibility for the conference with visible wins.
Over or under?: The Pac-12 already is 2-0 in bowl games, having dispatched of New Mexico and BYU. On deck? Southern Miss on Saturday. This league holds the easiest top-to-bottom bowl schedule of any power conference. Yet of the eight remaining matchups, four are toss-up games (lines of 3.5 points or less). Stanford isn’t a guaranteed winner against Iowa, either. This feels like 6-4 or 7-3.
Number of total bowl games: 10
Current Vegas projection: 8-2
Biggest underdogs: Arizona State +1 vs. West Virginia; Oregon +1 vs. TCU
Biggest favorite: Washington -9 vs. Southern Miss
SEC: 7.5
The SEC West has a chance to acquit itself for last year’s 2-5 effort. Florida-Michigan and Ole Miss-Oklahoma State offer some nice window dressing. But this bowl season is all about bringing back the national title to the SEC. Anything short of another championship for Nick Saban will be a conference-wide disappointment.
Over or under?: I’ll be surprised if the SEC wins 8 games, as I expect the Aggies and Gators to lose. Arkansas is the only double-digit SEC favorite, so I expect one or two of the other seven teams involved in close games to suffer an upset.
Number of total bowl games: 10
Current Vegas projection: 8-2
Biggest underdogs: Texas A&M +4.5 vs. Louisville; Florida +4.5 vs. Michigan
Biggest favorite: Arkansas -12.5 vs. Kansas State
*All lines courtesy of the Westgate Superbook as of Wednesday evening.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
