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Congratulations, SEC fans. The wait for your first bowl game is over.
As of this writing, we’ve blown through 20 bowl games as well, so we’re halfway through the most gigantic bowl season ever.
It’s finally time to dive into the SEC slate, and the College Football Playoff games are just two days away, believe it or not. Judging by my picks record, you probably want to pay attention to my SEC predictions and discount everything else. It’s all about what you know, right?
- 2014-15 SEC regular-season picks record: 119-92 (ATS), 171-40 (straight up)
- 2015 bowl picks record (through Monday): 9-11 (ATS), 11-9 (straight up)
We’ll get around to the remaining five SEC bowl games soon, but here are some predictions for the myriad of matchups between now and next year.
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl (Tuesday, 2 p.m. ET) — California (-6) vs. Air Force: This is Jared Goff’s final chance to impress NFL scouts in a real college game. He’s vying to become the first quarterback selected in the upcoming NFL draft. Cal coach Sonny Dikes flirted with leaving the Golden Bears recently before signing a contract extension, so he should enter the game with some pressure to perform. Air Force safety Weston Steelhammer is outstanding, though, and the Falcons 322 rushing yards per game. We’ve already seen the two teams ahead of them — Georgia Southern and Navy, both triple-option teams — win bowl games rather handily. Cal’s rush defense is 104th in the country, which could lead to an upset.
Air Force 28, Cal 27
Russell Athletic Bowl (Tuesday, 5:30 p.m. ET) — North Carolina (-3) vs. Baylor: This game could more closely resemble a 7-on-7 contest than full-fledged tackle football, and that may be just fine with coaches Art Briles and Larry Fedora. Both of these teams are being counted on by their respective conferences in a game that’s more visible than most for conference pride and reputation. Corey Coleman could terrorize the Tar Heels’ secondary, but that’s only if the Bears can find a quarterback to get him the ball. I’ll go with underrated quarterback Marquise Williams in this one.
North Carolina 42, Baylor 38
NOVA Home Loans Arizona Bowl (Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET) — Nevada vs. Colorado State (-3.5): Former Georgia offensive coordinator Mike Bobo still retains Rashard Higgins, one of the most accomplished and productive receivers in the country. Colorado State is looking to close the season with a five-game win streak. But running teams have performed very well in bowl games thus far. Nevada’s two-headed backfield of James Butler and Don Jackson is good enough to give CSU fits.
Nevada 28, Colorado State 27
AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl (Tuesday, 9 p.m. ET) — LSU (-7) vs. Texas Tech: The first SEC bowl game! I know, I’m not a fan of using exclamation points either, but it’s been a long wait. All of LSU’s offensive problems can wait as well, as Leonard Fournette should put together a showcase type game that could launch him to the front of the early 2016 Heisman Trophy race. The Tigers secondary hasn’t played as well as its talent, so expect the Red Raiders and quarterback Patrick Mahomes to gain some yards as well. But LSU should play much better than it did in last year’s bowl against Notre Dame.
LSU 35, Texas Tech 27
Birmingham Bowl (Wednesday, noon ET) — Auburn (-3) vs. Memphis: The American Athletic Conference version of the Tigers features a potential first-round pick at quarterback. Neither team pictured the Birmingham Bowl — Auburn was the preseason SEC favorite and Memphis got off to a terrific start — but here we are. Memphis lost its head coach and Auburn lost its defensive coordinator. I expect a better performance from the Auburn running game, but Paxton Lynch and Memphis should be able to have their way with the Auburn defense.
Memphis 31, Auburn 28
Belk Bowl (Wednesday, 3:30 p.m. ET) — N.C. State vs. Mississippi State (-6): This is a delightful matchup between mobile quarterbacks who are also successful as passers. It’s Dak Prescott’s farewell game and former Florida quarterback Jacoby Brissett also is saying goodbye. But the Bulldogs front seven has an advantage, and N.C. State hasn’t performed well against top 25-caliber teams, which coach Dan Mullen’s squad was for most of the season.
Mississippi State 35, N.C. State 28
Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET) — Texas A&M vs. Louisville (-4.5): Everyone is eager to see how Jake Hubenak performs as the starting quarterback for the Aggies. Most expect Trevor Knight or some other FBS transfer to supplant Hubenak as the starter by spring practice. But for now, he’s got an opportunity to make a strong initial bid. It wouldn’t be shocking if this is the final game for offensive coordinator Jake Spavital, so his play-calling will be under close scrutiny as well. Louisville’s defense has played very well, but its offense has been decidedly mediocre by Bobby Petrino standards. So it is important that coordinator John Chavis’ defense show some progress. Still, there’s a reason this point spread swung so drastically in the last week or so.
Louisville 27, Texas A&M 21
National Funding Holiday Bowl (Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET) — USC (-3.5) vs. Wisconsin: I feel sorry for anyone on the East Coast with a keen interest in this matchup, which may not finish until 2:30 a.m. ET. Watching USC QB Cody Kessler and WR JuJu Smith-Schuster operate against a very good Wisconsin defense should be worth the price of tired eyes, though. Wisconsin’s normally-stout running game has been out of sorts this year, finishing just 10th in the Big Ten. I don’t think the Badgers can score enough to keep pace.
USC 31, Wisconsin 24
Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Thursday, noon ET) — Houston vs. Florida State (-7): The appetizer for the College Football Playoff game features an excellent coaching matchup. Tom Herman, a hot name after just one year as a head coach, already is being talked about as a potential candidate at Texas and Texas A&M should either job become available after the 2016 season. A big New Year’s Six win would propel an already-strong recruiting class and set him up for another banner year. On the other sideline, Jimbo Fisher came within 16 points of another College Football Playoff appearance for FSU. The Seminoles also have a decided talent edge, and Fisher is a good enough coach to leverage that.
Florida State 28, Houston 20
Capital One Orange Bowl (Thursday, 4 p.m. ET) — Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. Clemson: This is the type of national semifinal that makes all too much sense in 2015. Baker Mayfield vs. Deshaun Watson. Bob Stoops vs. Dabo Swinney. A disregarded ACC champion vs. a Big 12 frontrunner out to prove its conference deserves a spot at the big-boy table each and every year. A terrific matchup all-around. After watching Clemson squeak past South Carolina late in the season, and seeing Oklahoma steam through the meat of the Big 12 with a more balanced overall roster, I like OU in this one.
Oklahoma 38, Clemson 34
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET) — Alabama (-10) vs. Michigan State: The Spartans have performed so, so well in big games, winning four consecutive bowls — several of them on huge stages — and knocking off Ohio State in two of the last three years. Connor Cook probably is the best passer that Alabama has faced all season. And Michigan State’s run defense is stout enough and disciplined enough to slow Derrick Henry just a little bit. Still, if the Tide can clamp down on receiver Aaron Burbridge, the Spartans are going to have trouble scoring. And Jake Coker ought to be able to pick his spots and exploit a sometimes-vulnerable secondary.
Alabama 24, Michigan State 20
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
