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Including Alabama’s victory over Michigan State on Thursday night, the SEC is participating in six of the final 10 bowl games this season.
What do they say about saving the best for last?
The remaining games are all headliners, the best of the best from the pool of 40 FBS bowl games. If you’re looking for gambling advice or strong predictions, you would do well to pay attention to my SEC selections and ignore everything else.
I continue to be a money-making picker when it comes to the SEC, improving to 28 games above .500 against the Vegas spread since the start of 2014. But the rest of the bowl games this year? Yikes.
- 2014-15 SEC regular-season picks record: 119-92 (ATS), 171-40 (straight up)
- 2015 SEC bowl picks record (through Thursday): 3-2 (ATS), 4-1 (straight up)
Here are my picks for the remaining nine bowl games:
Outback Bowl (Friday, noon ET) — Tennessee (-8.5) vs. Northwestern: The Wildcats are the higher-ranked team at No. 12 in the latest Associated Press Top 25. That defense will challenge the Vols, especially a terrific linebacker corps in the running game. But Tennessee has thrived in low-scoring, physical games. I don’t believe that Northwestern’s offense is explosive enough to do much damage to Team 119, and the running combination of Joshua Dobbs, Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara is just good enough to get another SEC win.
Tennessee 21, Northwestern 17
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl (Friday, 1 p.m. ET) — Florida vs. Michigan (-4): The Gators are one of just two SEC teams not favored in their bowl game. Florida enters this game at 10-3, but in danger of a three-game losing streak. The offense got by with smoke and mirrors early, but once Will Grier got suspended for performance-enhancing drugs, that unit eroded. The team’s offensive line has lived on the precipice of shambles most of the second half of the season. This matchup features the two biggest hires, arguably, prior to this football season in Jim Harbaugh and Jim McElwain, who will be compared for quite some time. Both of these fan bases, idling for a few years, are ecstatic for the near future. Expect a low-scoring game, but I’m not so sure that Florida can muster more than 10 points.
Michigan 21, Florida 10
BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl (Friday, 1 p.m. ET) — Notre Dame vs. Ohio State (-6): After the Buckeyes lost to Michigan State, it felt a bit like Ohio State may crater. The locker room filled with drama, with players like Ezekiel Elliott going off the rails a little. But coach Urban Meyer straightened out the team fast enough to beat Michigan to end the regular season. This still is one of the best rosters in the nation in terms of NFL personnel. If Ohio State is motivated, the Buckeyes should take care of a Notre Dame team that is good, but not great.
Ohio State 35, Notre Dame 28
Rose Bowl Game Presented By Northwestern Mutual (Friday, 5 p.m. ET) — Stanford (-6) vs. Iowa: These are two teams that should still be desperate to prove themselves. Despite an unbeaten regular season and a good performance in the Big Ten championship game, much of the nation still discounts the Hawkeyes as a top 10 team. The Cardinal, Pac-12 champs, lost two games and got excluded from the College Football Playoff. Stanford is playing for bragging rights for that conference and for yet another top 10 finish for a program that has collected several in recent years. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 18.5 points per game and is capable of keeping this one close throughout.
Stanford 24, Iowa 21
Allstate Sugar Bowl (Friday, 8:30 p.m. ET) — Ole Miss (-7.5) vs. Oklahoma State: The SEC West went 2-5 last bowl season. The other four teams that lost already have redeemed themselves. This probably is the final college game for Laquon Treadwell and Laremy Tunsil, leaders of that famous 2013 recruiting class. Winning a Sugar Bowl would represent a fitting end for the accomplished outgoing group. Oklahoma State’s best defensive player is a pass rusher, and Tunsil can neutralize him. Both defenses are at a disadvantage, and it hurts the Rebels that Robert Nkemdiche is suspended for this game. Still, I think Ole Miss will make a few more plays on defense in what could be a track meet.
Ole Miss 49, Oklahoma State 39
TaxSlayer Bowl (Saturday, noon ET) — Georgia (-6.5) vs. Penn State: The Nittany Lions are not as good on paper, thanks in part to a shoddy offensive line. But the meat of the Bulldogs coaching staff left Athens a while ago after the program fired coach Mark Richt. UGA is looking forward to the Kirby Smart era, and this game means very little. Meanwhile, Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg may be down to his final NFL audition, and Penn State coach James Franklin surely will want to impress against his former SEC East rival. Still, I don’t trust the Nittany Lions offense.
Georgia 28, Penn State 27
AutoZone Liberty Bowl (Saturday, 3:20 p.m. ET) — Kansas State vs. Arkansas (-12.5): No offense to coach Bill Snyder, but Kansas State probably is the worst Power 5 school to earn a bowl bid this season. The Razorbacks offense is much more explosive, and the Wildcats are not constructed to take advantage of a sometimes-shoddy Arkansas pass defense. This is goodbye for Brandon Allen and probably for Alex Collins, as well as a few of Arkansas’ beloved offensive linemen. The biggest concern for the Hogs may be making sure that coach Bret Bielema doesn’t get — well, overly excited — following another big bowl win.
Arkansas 31, Kansas State 17
Valero Alamo Bowl (Saturday, 6:45 p.m. ET) — Oregon (-7) vs. TCU: It’s a shame that Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson both are out of this game for the Horned Frogs, as they made up the most exciting quarterback-receiver combination in the country this year. Oregon is on a six-game win streak, including a road win against Pac-12 champion Stanford. TCU lost two of its last four and the other two were one-possession victories. Texas Tech and Oklahoma already have gotten shelled in bowl season. Kansas State should get clubbed as well, and TCU could join them.
Oregon 42, TCU 31
Motel 6 Cactus Bowl (Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET) — West Virginia (-1) vs. Arizona State: The Mountaineers went 1-5 against bowl teams during the regular season with a close win against Texas Tech. The Sun Devils notched impressive wins against UCLA and Washington. Mike Bercovici, Demario Richard and D.J. Foster make for a nice offensive trio under the care of coach Todd Graham. I like ASU here.
Arizona State 35, West Virginia 27
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
