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College Football

2015 pre-Christmas bowl predictions

Christopher Smith

By Christopher Smith

Published:


We’re in the midst of a very long slog between the SEC Championship Game and the first bowl game involving an SEC team (LSU vs. Texas Tech, Dec. 29).

But there are a crisp one dozen bowl games between Saturday and Christmas, including a few very entertaining offensive matchups. (Plus, if you’re stuck at work, you get some college football entertainment and occasional video footage of places like Las Vegas, Miami, Hawaii and the Bahamas.)

There are 40 total bowl games involving FBS teams, and that’s excluding the Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl, which I will acknowledge but I will not pick. It’s more of a “bowl” than a bowl, considering the teams are North Carolina A&T and Alcorn State, no matter how honorable the name.

So, to get you through the wait, here are my picks for these first 12 bowl games as well as my regular-season record picking every SEC game.

  • 2015 regular-season picks record: 61-50-1 (ATS), 90-21 (straight up)

Gildan New Mexico Bowl (Saturday, 2 p.m. ET) — Arizona (-8) vs. New Mexico: Sophomore quarterback Anu Solomon and all-everything linebacker Scooby Wright III missed chunks of this season due to injury, but both reportedly will play. Their presence makes Arizona a team that’s better than 6-6. And coach Rich Rodriguez could use a bowl win after he reportedly interviewed at South Carolina. This is New Mexico’s first bowl since 2007, and it is essentially a home game for the Lobos. New Mexico upset Boise State on the road this year, and it wasn’t a fluke. The Lobos are pretty good, as long-time ESPN broadcaster Bob Davie has this program on the rise. Expect that defense to keep this one respectable.

Arizona 28, New Mexico 24

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl (Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET) — BYU (-2) vs. Utah: The Holy War revives in the Sin City! Tanner Magnum has done an outstanding job as the replacement for injured quarterback Taysom Hill. Utah standout running back Devontae Booker had knee surgery in mid-November and will not play. Still, BYU just lost coach Bronco Mendenhall. And this is a Cougars team that lost to SEC East bottom-dweller Mizzou late in the season, mostly because the SEC team controlled the line of scrimmage, another disadvantage for BYU in this matchup. Utah lost a couple one-possession games to Arizona and UCLA late in the season or else the Utes would’ve won the Pac-12 South.

Utah 28, BYU 24

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl (Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET) — Ohio vs. Appalachian State (-7.5): After averaging nearly 10 wins per season at Nebraska and then getting fired, coach Frank Solich latched onto Ohio in 2005 and has turned the program into a perennial winner. This marks six bowl games in seven seasons for Ohio. This may be the first-ever bowl appearance for Appalachian State, but postseason play isn’t foreign to the Mountaineers, who won several FCS championships before bumping up to the FBS level. Sophomore quarterback Taylor Lamb does a great job as the engine of this spread offense, and players like 1,000-yard rusher Marcus Cox offer plenty of support. During a three-game losing streak, the Bobcats gave up 49, 41 and 62 points, respectively, so I’m skeptical that team can keep pace.

Appalachian State 42, Ohio 24

Cure Bowl (Saturday, 7 p.m. ET) — San Jose State (-2) vs. Georgia State: In addition to this being the most boring of the 40 bowl matchups — the 5-7 Spartans are traveling across the country to play in Orlando against a team that was founded in 2010 — it also is one of the most difficult games to predict. The Panthers won four consecutive games to reach 6-6 and get eligible. The Spartans beat one FBS team with a winning record, and just couldn’t close out games. This one could be close, so I’ll avoid betting on San Jose State.

Georgia State 28, San Jose State 27

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl (Saturday, 9 p.m. ET) — Arkansas State vs. Louisiana Tech (-2): Arkansas State always is a competitive Group of 5 team. Since re-installing Fredi Knighten at quarterback after a preseason ankle injury, the Red Wolves have played much better and enter with an eight-game winning streak. But Louisiana Tech features two potential NFL prospects in former Florida quarterback Jeff Driskel and running back Kenneth Dixon. The Bulldogs also lost out on a Conference USA division title with a loss to Southern Miss in the regular-season finale, so the team should be eager to prove itself.

Louisiana Tech 38, Arkansas State 27

Miami Beach Bowl (Monday, 2:30 p.m. ET) — Western Kentucky (-2.5) vs. South Florida: If you’re looking for offensive firepower and maximum entertainment, circle this game. It’s a great time to get out of the office early “for Christmas.” Sixth-year senior quarterback Brandon Doughty has thrown 45 touchdown passes and nearly 4,600 yards this season for the Hilltoppers. After a slow start, the Bulls emerged as one of the best teams in a good AAC, winning 7 of 8 including romps over Temple and Cincinnati. South Florida features a powerful running game and Western Kentucky slings the ball, but both offenses are far from one-dimensional. The defenses are just OK, meaning this game could shower us with touchdowns.

Western Kentucky 45, South Florida 35

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Tuesday, 3:30 p.m. ET) — Akron vs. Utah State (-6.5): The oft-injured Chuckie Keeton, Utah State’s quarterback, is healthy. He’s facing a very good MAC defense led by linebacker Jatavis Brown. Utah State’s 52-26 win against Boise State is the best that these two teams can claim in 2015. Akron, to be frank, hasn’t beaten anyone of note. The Aggies will have a slight talent advantage and the coaching to take advantage of it.

Utah State 27, Akron 21

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl (Tuesday, 7 p.m. ET) — Toledo vs. Temple (-1.5): The Owls are aiming for their first 11-win season in program history, while the Rockets are trying not to pout after missing out on a New Year’s Six game with a few untimely losses. If you subscribe to the importance of “bowl motivation,” signs point toward Temple. Plus, the Owls beat Penn State this year and the Rockets lost coach Matt Campbell to Iowa State. But don’t forget Toledo’s victory against Arkansas, and how close this team was to being ranked in the final College Football Playoff poll. Former Alabama quarterback Phillip Ely benefits from a spectacular one-two punch in the running game, and I think that will bode well against a tough Temple defense, as South Florida used a similar formula to roll to a 44-23 victory against the Owls.

Toledo 31, Temple 28

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl (Wednesday, 4:30 p.m. ET) — Boise State (-9) vs. Northern Illinois: A few seasons ago, this matchup would have been spectacular. (For those wondering, former NIU quarterback Jordan Lynch now plays quarterback for the Edmonton Eskimos.) This season? Not so much. After beating Washington in the season opener, Boise State lost four times, and if the Broncos lose here, the program would endure just its second five-loss season since 1998. Northern Illinois played Ohio State and Boston College tough on the road early in the year and lost in the MAC championship game. The Huskies have a real shot at an upset here. Both teams’ results swung wildly during the year depending on turnovers, so that could be a big factor.

Northern Illinois 27, Boise State 24

GoDaddy Bowl (Wednesday, 8 p.m. ET) — Georgia Southern vs. Bowling Green (-7.5): The Eagles lead the nation in rushing with a progressive triple-option offense, led by terrific running back Matt Breida. That running game almost took down Georgia late in the season and beat Florida a few years ago. The Falcons are third in the nation in pass offense, propelled by Matt Johnson’s 4,700 passing yards. Georgia Southern wants to slow it down and Bowling Green wants to speed it up. If the Falcons get a lead, it will be tough for the FBS newcomers. And I’m not sure that Georgia Southern’s defense can hold down Bowling Green.

Bowling Green 35, Georgia Southern 24

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl (Thursday, noon ET) — Middle Tennessee State vs. Western Michigan (-3): This game may exist another 50 years without equalling the drama of last year’s fantastic game, which Western Kentucky won 49-48 against Central Michigan. The head coach of the losing team, by the way? Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos. Middle Tennessee State nearly beat Vanderbilt early in the season, while Western Michigan knocked off a then-ranked Toledo team. Coach P.J. Fleck has done a terrific job turning around the Broncos, who are thrilled to be in the Bahamas after missing out on a MAC division title. This is a momentum-building opportunity for them in front of a national audience.

Western Michigan 38, Middle Tennessee State 35

Hawai’i Bowl (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET) — San Diego State vs. Cincinnati (-1): The Aztecs went undefeated in Mountain West Conference play. A win here likely lands San Diego State in the final Associated Press Top 25 for this season. The Bearcats lost to Temple, Houston, Memphis and South Florida, four of the five teams considered the class of this year’s strong American Athletic Conference. (Cincinnati didn’t play the fifth team, Navy.) San Diego State and its strong running game fits the profile of a team that has given coach Tommy Tuberville’s program some trouble this year. Quarterback Gunner Kiel (personal) is questionable for this game as well, so I think SDSU should be favored.

San Diego State 24, Cincinnati 21

Christopher Smith

An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.

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