Ad Disclosure
The following is part of a 10-part series, wherein I (Connor O’Gara) outline 10 chaos scenarios for the 2024 college football season. These are not predictions. These are, however, things that could happen that would create a significant ripple effect in the sport.
What is chaos, you ask? Last year, Texas beating Alabama caused chaos because it was the preamble for Texas’ return to the national spotlight while the Tide had “sky is falling” energy that prompted a QB change and a discussion about Nick Saban’s future. Saban’s retirement was also chaos because it prompted 4 FBS coaching vacancies, as well as raises for coaches who were reportedly targeted as his successor.
Chaos can come in non-Saban ways, too. Florida State getting left out of the Playoff as a 13-0 Power 5 champion was chaos, as was Deion Sanders beating defending national title runner-up TCU in his Colorado debut. Chaos can come in a variety of forms.
So far, we did:
- No. 1 — What if Ohio State fires Ryan Day?
- No. 2 — The chaotic teams that can win a title
- No. 3 — What if Lincoln Riley actually has a defense?
- No. 4 — A team with multiple losses wins the national title
- No. 5 — A Group of 5 team wins a Playoff game
- No. 6 — What if Quinn Ewers gets hurt again?
Today is the seventh installment of the 10-part series for 2024 …
If you can find a “hot-seat list” without Billy Napier’s name on it, that would be news.
Check the byline. It might say “Scott Stricklin” on it. Of course, nothing about the Florida athletic director’s offseason comments have suggested as much. Most recently, he said at SEC Meetings in Destin that “this season is not about our schedule. It’s about the Gators. And if the Gators are the Gators we’re going to be alright” (via Jesse Simonton).
Well, here’s the thing. The Gators — whatever version that Stricklin referred to — are in those daunting conversations for a couple of reasons. One is that it has suffered 3 consecutive losing seasons, and dating back to the late days of the Dan Mullen era, Florida is 10-23 in its past 33 games against Power 5 competition.
The other point is the one that Stricklin would prefer not to talk about: the schedule. As in, the one that he played a role in lining up.
In case you haven’t read one of those hot-seat lists, you’ll probably see some sort of mention of the Gators’ historically daunting schedule. Time will tell if it’s “the toughest schedule in college football history.” For now, we have an 8-month offseason to discuss a program with 3 consecutive losing seasons that is trying to end that against a schedule that closes with 5 teams that finished in the top 12 of the AP Poll in 2023. Note that’s not including nonconference games against Miami and UCF, nor is it including a trip to Tennessee or a home game against a Kentucky program that beat the Gators in each of those 3 consecutive losing seasons.
Wouldn’t it be weird if we weren’t talking about Napier’s job security?
Napier can talk all he wants about the plan. The plan wasn’t to have 2 losing seasons to start with or have his first prized recruit on the other side of a lawsuit. Whatever plan Napier has needs to take shape in Year 3, or Stricklin might not have a say in whether he gets a Year 4 (Florida can be an “everything school” and still acknowledge that ADs don’t get to fire and hire 3 football coaches in 7 years).
If Stricklin’s $60 million investment in Napier goes bust in 2024, chaos ensues. Period.
We probably would have an athletic director vacancy, as well as one of the more coveted vacancies in the sport. The track record of Florida’s hiring doesn’t suggest it’s as good of a job as places like Ohio State or Georgia, nor is it realistic to think it’ll have a ripple effect quite like Nick Saban’s retirement, but it could still be a vacancy that has a ripple effect.
Maybe someone like Eli Drinkwitz or Lane Kiffin would be at the top of that candidate list. Perhaps if Florida wants to get the secret sauce of a rival, former Tennessee OC and current USF coach Alex Golesh would be in that discussion, as could Georgia DC Glenn Schumann.
The job, even if it’s another rebuild, is still a darn good one. It’s a proud program with multiple national titles in the 21st century that is in a recruiting hotbed in 1 of the 2 true power conferences in the sport. If there is a new athletic director, alignment shouldn’t be an issue, either.
That area of chaos speaks for itself. But there’s another layer to a potential Napier firing that would have just as many eyeballs on it — the DJ Lagway sweepstakes.
There have been rumors that Lagway had major outside interest even after he enrolled at Florida. The Texas native was the Gatorade National Player of the Year, and in a controlled spring game setting, the 5-star quarterback looked the part. Take that for what it is. Unless Lagway gets hurt or gives off a “deer in the headlights” vibe, it’s hard to imagine his stock taking a significant hit by the time a potential coaching change would take place.
The plan is for Lagway to be part of the Florida offense in more than a “it’s garbage time, kid” sort of way, but less than a “we’re utilizing a true 2-quarterback system” sort of way. Somewhere in the middle of that could still be an opportunity for Lagway to flash all of those traits that made him a decorated recruit who could’ve played anywhere. He chose Napier in part because of the control he has over the offense. If Napier isn’t running a team, much less an offense, it’s natural to speculate about the Lagway sweepstakes.
Dare I say, he could be the most coveted transfer of the portal era that’s right on par with post-2018 Justin Fields. Mind you, someone like Caleb Williams was a portal entry, but the strong likelihood that he followed Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma to USC didn’t turn that into a true sweepstakes (but remember when there was that talk about him at Wisconsin?). Someone like Kyler Murray was coveted, but he was pre-portal. He was also pre-immediate eligibility for undergraduate transfers.
Lagway has the opportunity to hit the open market and perhaps get a true “highest bidder” reception before market sharing and any sort of “salary cap” system goes into effect. Booster fatigue wouldn’t apply to Lagway. If it applies to Lagway, it probably applies to everybody.
A place like Texas A&M would be in that market, depending on what the future holds for Conner Weigman. Miami has shown it’ll spend big on NIL, as could a program like Ohio State, depending on what the future holds for Ryan Day/his potential successor (that’s Chaos Scenario No. 1).
But the most daunting thought for Florida is the idea that Georgia would swoop in and woo Lagway to Athens. I know, Florida fans. You got a pit in your stomach just thinking about that.
Carson Beck will be off to the NFL after this year and while there could be a 2025 battle between Gunner Stockton and aforementioned lawsuit quarterback Jaden Rashada, getting Lagway would be an extremely rare opportunity. Forget college size. Lagway has NFL size. You would also get the benefit of seeing him on film against SEC defenses to properly diagnose how to coach him. Kirby Smart has never been one to fall in love with “traits,” but it’s hard to deny what he could bring to the table with surroundings like what he’d have at Georgia.
Of course, that’s all extremely hypothetical. We’re talking about this scenario because it’s possible, not necessarily imminent. If Florida gets off to a 3-2 start, it’ll start to feel a whole lot more imminent, especially with what awaits in November.
For all we know, Lagway is getting ready to be the savior of the Napier era. That’s a strange thing to say about a place where quarterback is already considered a position of strength with someone entering his 5th year as a Power 5 starter in Graham Mertz. But these are the conversations that are had with a quarterback as highly regarded as Lagway.
For now, the conversations surrounding Napier’s future will remain at the forefront of everything Florida-related in 2024.
And if it’s the same Gators of the past 3 seasons? All signs point to chaos.
Chaos Scenario No. 8 will publish later in the week. To spoil all 10 chaos scenarios for yourself, watch the full breakdown, as discussed on The Saturday Down South Podcast.
Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Down South. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.
