Ad Disclosure
3 reasons Notre Dame should be optimistic and concerned about the national title game
Published:
Notre Dame was deemed a failure in 2024 before fall even hit.
It was way back on Sept. 7, and the Fighting Irish did the unfathomable by losing at home to Northern Illinois. Somehow, they managed just 14 points in doing it, and 7 of those came on the opening possession of the game. It was a gut punch, it was inexcusable, and it was going to be the start of yet another maddening season for college football’s holy program that hasn’t won it all since 1988.
But then, an enraged group of players put on their blinders and, led by a fearless young head coach, started winning games. Four months later, they haven’t stopped. Thirteen straight wins later, they will arrive in Atlanta to play Ohio State for that 1st national title since 1988 that nobody except maybe Rudy thought was remotely possible after the Northern Illinois fiasco.
So now what happens? Does Notre Dame complete this storybook season by toppling the Buckeyes, who are 8.5-point favorites via DraftKings Sportsbook? Or do the Fighting Irish grind it out against a more talented team but fall just short of that national title for the 4th time since 2012? There is good reason to see either scenario unfolding on Monday night, so we’re going to give you 3 reasons for Notre Dame to be optimistic and 3 reasons for the Irish to be concerned:
3 reasons to be optimistic
1. That team of destiny thing
Notre Dame has spent most of the past century being the entitled favorite, the team many rushed to root against, the team that usually won. Today, the tables have turned. The Fighting Irish haven’t won the ultimate prize in 36 years, and even when they seemingly got close in 2012, 2018 and 2020, it was fool’s gold. But this year seems different, because of the 13-game win streak, because of Marcus Freeman’s ability to push all the right buttons through an endless stream of injuries.
This Irish team wasn’t afraid of an SEC beast like Georgia in the quarterfinals, and it wasn’t deterred by a 10-0 deficit against Penn State in the semifinals. This Irish team probably feels like it can conquer anything at this point, and that includes an Ohio State team that is great but carries 100% of the pressure into the title game. Just maybe Notre Dame is destined to finally take it the distance, and those vibes alone make it dangerous on Monday night.
2. They are playing with house money in a lot of ways
Will it be crushing if Notre Dame did all of this since September just to fall short in January? Of course it will. But how many teams lose to a Northern Illinois team that ended up losing 5 times in 2024 and still find their way to the national championship game? The answer is none. This particular Fighting Irish squad, with a 3rd-year head coach who isn’t even 40, with a slew of injuries — especially on defense — that would’ve torpedoed any other team by October, will take the field against Ohio State feeling emboldened to let it fly one last time.
Notre Dame will play with recklessness because that’s what Freeman preaches, and assuming he sticks around South Bend for a few decades or longer, the Irish will probably have a few more shots to grab that elusive national title. Meanwhile, the Irish get to face a team in Ohio State that is expected to win right now, with no questions asked. It all could set up well for Notre Dame if it’s still hanging around late in the 3rd quarter, with another path to victory in sight.
3. Ohio State hasn’t faced a QB like Riley Leonard
The Duke transfer came to South Bend with much the same mindset as Will Howard did when he transferred from Kansas State to Ohio State. Leonard had 1 more collegiate season to win big, and he wanted to do it at Notre Dame, where his great-grandfather played in the 1940s. Leonard has done exactly that, helping the Irish to a 14-1 record with a dual-threat style that has kept defenses off balance all season.
Leonard has thrown for 2,606 yards with 19 touchdowns and just 8 interceptions this season, but it’s his rushing stats that jump off the page: 866 yards rushing on 167 carries. He’s averaging 5.2 yards per carry, and he has scored 16 rushing TDs. Sure, Ohio State has faced some big-time quarterbacks this season and during its Playoff run, including Heisman Trophy finalist Dillon Gabriel twice. But Leonard is just built differently, he has got enormous heart, and he seems to crave the big moments.
3 reasons to be concerned
1. Will all the injuries finally be too much?
It’s a testament to the depth of the Irish roster that they’ve been able to get within 60 minutes of a national title with so much talent not available anymore. Notre Dame plowed through a 11-1 regular season despite a constant rash of injuries, and that rash has continued in the Playoff. The Irish lost star defensive lineman Rylie Mills to a knee injury in the 1st-round win over Indiana, and then they lost starting left tackle Anthonie Knapp to a high ankle sprain in the semifinal victory over Penn State.
That’s 2 big losses in the trenches that could just be the difference in a matchup where, on paper, Notre Dame is already at a disadvantage. Maybe this Irish team is just built to keep overcoming injury after injury, all the way to a national title. Or, just maybe, all of the injuries that have accompanied all of the wins over the past 4 months will finally catch up to it.
2. The Irish might not be able to produce enough points
Look, it doesn’t matter how you produce points, as long as it adds up to a victory. But Notre Dame scored its 2 touchdowns against Georgia on a touchdown pass that was directly set up by a turnover deep in Bulldogs’ territory and on a 98-yard kickoff return to open the 2nd half. Against Penn State, the Irish were getting shut out until kicking a field goal on the final play of the 1st half.
To Notre Dame’s credit, it won both of those games to advance to Atlanta. But can that be replicated 1 more time against a team with the offensive firepower that Ohio State possesses? It’s hard to imagine that it can. And can the Irish offense do enough damage on the outside to soften up the Buckeyes defense so it can do what it does best, which is pound the football with Leonard, Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price? These are question marks that make beating the Buckeyes an uphill battle.
3. All that speed on the outside for Ohio State
It’s not just freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes come at you in waves on the outside. There is sophomore Carnell Tate, who burned the Texas secondary with 7 catches for 87 yards. There is senior Emeka Egbuka, who has 75 catches and 10 touchdowns this season. And even Ohio State’s running back duo of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins can burn you coming out of the backfield — just ask the Longhorns.
Notre Dame’s secondary has held up quite well, thank you, after the loss of star cornerback Benjamin Morrison to a season-ending hip injury in October. It helps to have an All-American safety like Xavier Watts as the backbone of the defense. But Indiana and Penn State have nowhere near the outside speed that Ohio State has, and even this Georgia team didn’t have the weaponry it has had in the recent past. That Irish defensive backfield will be tested early and often on Monday night.
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
