3 things that must happen for each SEC East team to win division

Winning the SEC East takes talent, good coaching and a certain amount of good fortune. Going into each season, there are always favorites. This year, for most folks, that choice is Tennessee.

Compelling cases can also be made, however, for Florida and Georgia. But the margins are thin enough that — under ideal circumstances — every school in the East thinks it could get to Atlanta and play in the SEC Championship Game.

Five programs have won the East in the 10 seasons, and it’s not always the preseason favorite. Last season, for instance, Florida was picked to finish fifth.

Here are three things that must go right for each team in the East to claim the title:

FLORIDA

1. Luke Del Rio must become a hidden gem at quarterback. With the attrition on defense, having a game manager at quarterback likely won’t be enough this season. He doesn’t need to reach the level of, say, Chad Kelly as a transfer starter, but he’ll need to improve on Treon Harris’ numbers in the latter half of last season.

2. The defense lost a lot of talent, but the most important player to replace is Jonathan Bullard. In addition to his 66 tackles, 17.5 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks, he commanded double teams. Caleb Brantley and, to a lesser degree, Joey Ivie, will need to take a step up in production to help offset that loss.

3. Antonio Callaway needs to be on the roster. Two other leading receivers from last year (Demarcus Robinson and tight end Jake McGee) have moved on, so his return from suspension is crucial. Otherwise, it will be a youthful and inexperienced bunch catching passes this fall.

GEORGIA

1. Nick Chubb needs to be at or near 100 percent. Sony Michel is no slouch, and proved last year that he can carry the load, but Chubb’s return would lift the entire program, and become the kind of story that powers a championship run.

2. Getting consistency from the quarterback is a must. Greyson Lambert’s numbers last season (1,959 yards, 63.3 completion percentage, 12 TD, 2INT) were pretty good overall, but much of that success came against lesser opposition. He needs to play better in big games, or clear the way for Jacob Eason.

3. Departed linebackers Leonard Floyd, Jordan Jenkins and Jake Ganus combined for 235 tackles. Lorenzo Carter, Davin Bellamy and Reggie Carter should join Natrez Patrick in the starting lineup in 2016, and each will need to help make up for the lost production.

KENTUCKY

1. Co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Darin Hinshaw will need to live up to, and perhaps enhance, his reputation as a quarterback guru in further developing sophomore starter Drew Barker. The Wildcats’ passing game struggled last season, finishing 12th in the league in passer rating. And, if we’re talking about competing for an SEC East title, just a marginal improvement won’t do.

2. Kentucky was last in the league with 17 sacks in 2015. It will need to double that to fuel a Cinderella-like run to an SEC East title. No SEC East champion in the past five seasons has had fewer than 32. Denzil Ware had four in the spring game, and he’s the most likely source for any growth in this area.

3. Mark Stoops’ squad will need to manage the schedule, and pull the right upset. Beating South Carolina and Vanderbilt at home, and Missouri on the road, is a must. Then, the Wildcats will need to pull a surprise at Tennessee or Florida and hope the tiebreakers work out in their favor. Stranger things have happened, you know.

MISSOURI

1. Offensive coordinator Josh Heupel will need to win the Broyles Award as the nation’s top assistant. If Missouri wins the SEC East, he will have found four new starters on the offensive line, transformed Drew Lock into a top-tier SEC quarterback and increased the offense’s output from 13.6 points per game in 2015 to somewhere in the mid 30s.

2. The defense, already solid in 2015, will need to be even better. Walter Brady and Charles Harris will need to reach double figures in sacks, and new coordinator DeMontie Cross will need to find a replacement for the nation’s leading tackler, Kentrell Brothers. A better offense that lets the Tigers play with a lead more often will help.

3. Like in Kentucky’s scenario, pulling the right upsets will be key. In Week 3, Georgia visits Faurot Field. A win there, and in another at Tennessee or Florida — coupled with home wins over Kentucky and Vanderbilt — will put the Tigers in position to win some tiebreakers.

SOUTH CAROLINA

1. Quarterback Brandon McIlwain will need to be a Freshman All-American. He will hope to channel his inner Johnny Manziel (on the field) and dazzle foes with his arm and his legs. Manziel was a redshirt freshman when he achieved that in 2012, but McIlwain will need to do it a year earlier in his development.

2. A few standouts need to emerge from newcomers on defense. The Gamecocks were last in the SEC in rushing, scoring and total defense in 2015, and fresh faces like Keir Thomas, Chris Smith, Stephon Taylor and Jamarcus King — and others — will need to orchestrate a massive turnaround.

3. If South Carolina wins the SEC East, chances are it will have found a 1,000-yard rusher. David Williams enters the summer as the likely starter, but it may be a freshman (A.J. Turner, C.J. Freeman or Rico Dowdle) that winds up as the bell cow for the Gamecocks.

TENNESSEE

1. Managing the weight of expectations will be the key. Since the 2015 season ended with a thumping of Northwestern in the Outback Bowl, Tennessee has gone from a sleeper pick to win the East to the \favorite, and now, is even being touted as a playoff contender. Imagine what the pressure will be like once the games start?

2. Joshua Dobbs needs a signature senior season. He’s already one of the league’s better quarterbacks, but there are areas where he can still improve. His 6.7 yards per attempt ranked 10th in the conference among eligible quarterbacks last season. Butch Jones has stressed stretching the field. Pushing that number closer to eight this season would mean good things.

3. Stay healthy and out of trouble. When a team is the favorite, things just don’t need to go wrong. Assuming the Vols can avoid injuries to key players and avoid making off-field missteps, their odds of winning the SEC East are pretty good.

VANDERBILT

1. Quarterback Kyle Shurmur will need to morph into one of the league’s best quarterbacks. He got his feet wet last season and managed a 5-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio as a true freshman. The former four-star recruit will likely need to top 20 touchdown passes if the Commodores hope to be in the East race.

2. The Commodores were sixth in total and scoring defense last fall, but to challenge the East’s elite, this unit will need to be even better. Only Missouri and Mississippi State forced fewer turnovers than Vandy’s 17 in 2015. Pushing that number into the low 20s should be a goal for 2016.

3. Surviving the schedule. In a six-week stretch from Oct. 8 to Nov. 12, Vanderbilt plays four road SEC games sandwiched around FCS foe Tennessee State and a bye week. A split in those games against Kentucky, Georgia, Auburn and Missouri is the minimum requirement for any East title hopes.

Randy Capps

Randy Capps is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football, South Carolina and Georgia.