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Week 10 of the college football season is almost here.
Last week in this story, we broke down Notre Dame vs. Navy, Oregon’s performance as a double-digit favorite, Penn State’s history as a road favorite under James Franklin and more.
Here are 5 betting trends to know for Week 10:
Lane Kiffin as a road favorite
Ole Miss will travel to face Arkansas in Fayetteville this weekend. The Rebels are favored by 7 points, per the latest odds from DraftKings.
Historically, this has been an ideal spot to back Ole Miss. In the Lane Kiffin era, the Rebels are 7-0-1 against the spread when favored by 6.5 points or more on the road. If you’re interested in a slightly larger sample size, Ole Miss covers at a 73% rate in general as road favorites of any number over the same span.
Ole Miss is also 6-2-1 against the number as a favorite when coming off of a win over the same time period.
Fading North Carolina as a road favorite
North Carolina is favored over Florida State this weekend by 2.5 points, per the latest lines from bet365.
However, history says this is a spot where bettors should look to fade the Tar Heels. In this stint of the Mack Brown era, Carolina is just 4-10-2 against the spread when favored by any amount of points on the road.
North Carolina is coming off one of its biggest wins of the season (a 41-14 drubbing of Virginia). However, that hasn’t always been a good omen for the Tar Heels. Over the same time span, UNC is just 15-23-1 against the number when coming off of a win.
Dabo Swinney as a 7+ point favorite
Clemson is a 10.5-point favorite (via Caesars) at home this weekend against Louisville. Throughout the entire Dabo Swinney era, this has been a profitable spot for bettors to back the Tigers.
Since the Swinney era began in 2009, Clemson has covered the spread at a remarkable 61% clip when favored by 7 or more points against an ACC opponent. The sample size is rather significant — Clemson’s overall record against the number during that span is 63-40-1.
Kentucky’s record after a loss
Kentucky is on a 3-game losing streak this weekend entering its Week 10 matchup against Tennessee in Knoxville. The Wildcats have not won since they pulled off one of the biggest SEC upsets of the year by beating Ole Miss in Oxford earlier this season.
In the Mark Stoops era, Kentucky has struggled against the number when coming off of a loss. The Wildcats are 25-35 in that spot since the start of the 2013 season when Stoops took over.
Stoops’s Kentucky teams have also not been particularly good as big underdogs against SEC opposition. In that situation, UK is 15-19 against the number, good for a cover rate of about 44%. The Wildcats are also just 3-33 outright in that spot over the same span.
Kentucky is a 17-point underdog this weekend in Knoxville, according to ESPN BET.
Illinois as an underdog
Bret Bielema and the Fighting Illini are licking their wounds after suffering a blowout loss in Eugene last weekend. Illinois is now a 3-point home underdog against Minnesota in Week 10, per BetMGM.
Historically, bettors have done well to back Illinois in this spot. Bielema’s Illinois program is 16-7 against the spread as an underdog of 2 points or more. That includes a 5-3 ATS record when when at home under the same circumstances.
Illinois is also 10-13 straight up as an underdog of 2 points or more during the Bielema era.
Note: Trends via BetIQ
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
