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5 bold predictions for LSU vs. Texas A&M (and a bonus about Tigers’ next coach)
By Gary Laney
Published:
The prediction we all want to make about anything regarding LSU this week is this:
Who will be the head coach on Monday?
That probably has little to do with the outcome of the Thanksgiving night game with Texas A&M. Ed Orgeron has made his pitch as interim coach and most think that, with a 4-2 record so far, he has fallen short.
As for Jimbo Fisher, we will probably hear something at the end of the weekend.
My prediction?
Jimbo takes it and a week later LSU is matched up in a bowl game against … Florida State.
Who says bowls that aren’t the palyoffs are meaningless?
But let’s keep this piece focused on the game at hand Thursday night.
1. LSU will struggle out the gate: Playing such an emotional game as LSU did in Saturday’s 16-10 loss to Florida can take a toll. That will have been just five days earlier when this game — on the road — kicks off Thursday night.
Human nature says the Tigers won’t have time to process it all and rebound. It’ll be a slow start – something LSU has grown accustomed to – but the Tigers also have a lot to play for here, so don’t necessarily look for it to be a 60-minute malaise.
2. Texas A&M will play well: The Aggies, on the other hand, have a lot to play for. Even with a second-half slump to their season, getting the win over Texas-San Antonio last week puts A&M within reasonable distance of a New Year’s Six Bowl.
Win and the Aggies are 9-3. Florida is probably heading for 8-4, as both Florida State (at home) and Alabama will be favored over the Gators. If that happens (and Alabama beats Auburn), the Aggies’ resume will be getting compared to Tennessee for a potential Sugar Bowl spot.
And guess what? Texas A&M owns a head-to-head win.
Plus, a win and an Auburn loss puts the Aggies in second place in the SEC West, something they have not achieved under Kevin Sumlin.
So there’s a lot on the line. Of course, LSU was in that spot last week and lost at home.
3. Derrius Guice and Donte Jackson will bounce back: The LSU running back and cornerback had uniquely rough days in the Florida loss.
Guice had a fumble in the red zone, then on the game’s deciding play, a 4th-and-goal run from the 1 as time expired, he ran the wrong way and was stopped short.
Jackson was burned for a 98-yard touchdown pass, then fumbled away a kickoff return.
Both are talented players and will be even more motivated to bounce back. Look for Guice, who will likely get the bulk of LSU’s carries at running back with Leonard Fournette still ailing, to have a big game against defense that has allowed 270 rush yards per game over the past four SEC games. Look for Jackson to be more solid and provide his usual good coverage.
4. Texas A&M will struggle to move the ball: It’s nice to have a solid quarterback like Jake Hubenak to turn to when your starter gets hurt, but let’s face it, the quarterback run is something essential to a Kevin Sumlin Aggies offense and it isn’t something Hubenak does well.
In two starts since replacing the injured Trevor Knight, he has carried 17 times for 42 yards and the Aggies are averaging 386.5 total yards per game in those two games. That’s down from the 436.2 yards per game they were averaging over the first 10 games with Knight.
The difference? While Hubenak has actually been a more efficient passer, Knight’s threat to run (583 yards and 10 touchdowns on 88 carries) is something that is missing.
Going up against the SEC’s third-ranked defense (308 yards per game), that adds up to a tough day for the Aggies’ offense, even with LSU missing one of its best players in injured linebacker Kendell Beckwtih.
5. Another game decided in last five minutes: Let’s do the math here. Texas A&M is missing its starting quarterback and its defense has slumped in the second half of the season. On the other hand, it’s at home and has real shot at the Sugar Bowl.
On LSU’s side, the Tigers are on the road and banged up coming off a deflating loss, but the Tigers have a dominant defense that matches up with an offense led by a backup quarterback.
On paper, LSU is the better team, particularly based on how it should be able to negate A&M’s offensive strengths. But the intangibles favor the Aggies.
That equals a game decided in the final minutes which favors … Texas A&M. LSU has struggled to close out close games. The Tigers are 1-3 in games decided by a touchdown or less and in “close” games, you can make it 1-4 as the 10-0 loss to Alabama was tied going into the fourth quarter.
Texas A&M, on the other hand, has pulled out three wins by a touchdown or less and have just one close loss, the 29-28 loss to Ole Miss two weeks ago.
So the prediction? Texas A&M finds a way and tastes some Sugar Jan. 2.
