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Alabama enters Saturday’s contest as a 7-point favorite, having won the last five contests between the two teams. Here are five reasons the Crimson Tide will defeat the Tigers again in 2016:
- Alabama has an abundance of rushing options. In 2012, Alabama had four running backs rush for more than 150 yards: Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon, Kenyan Drake and Blake Sims. Jeremy Hill was the top rusher in the Alabama-LSU game, but Lacy and Yeldon’s combined 159 rushing yards proved more potent. This season, Alabama actually has five players with more than 150 rushing yards, and the season isn’t over yet. The team has: Damien Harris, quarterback Jalen Hurts, Joshua Jacobs, Bo Scarbrough and B.J. Emmons. They may not have the cache of Leonard Fournette, but together, it’s a pretty potent group.
- Alabama also has depth at receiver. LSU has two outstanding receivers in Travin Dural and Malachi Dupre. The same could be said of Alabama in Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart. However, Alabama also has Cam Sims, Trevon Diggs, Robert Foster and Gehrig Dieter, who have all shown flashes at various points this season. Then, there is one of the SEC’s best tight ends in O.J. Howard. Alabama head coach Nick Saban said the team made executing in the passing game a point of emphasis in practice this week. LSU has a strong secondary, but if Hurts can get complimentary receivers involved in the passing game, LSU may be hard-pressed to defend Alabama.
- LSU has done well in protecting quarterback Danny Etling this season, but the team hasn’t faced a pass rush like Alabama’s. The Crimson Tide lead the nation in sacks (32), led by linebacker Tim Williams (6.5) and defensive end Jonathan Allen (6). Ole Miss, Arkansas and Kentucky all committed critical turnovers because of the Alabama pressure.
- Reuben Foster and the Alabama run defense. A lot of attention is going to Alabama’s opportunistic defense, but the run defense has been otherworldly. Running backs who had once led the conference in rushing appeared to be stuck in quicksand against Alabama. For the season, Alabama leads the nation by allowing opponents a miniscule 70.1 rushing yards per game. Teams are averaging just 2.2 yards per carry. So while Leonard Fournette ran wild against Ole Miss, the Rebels are 118th in the nation against the run, allowing more than triple the number of rushing yards at 237 per game. Quite a difference.
- Alabama usually wins defensive slugfests. In a game in which the victor scored 21 points or less, Alabama is 5-0 since 2012. Alabama beat LSU 21-17 in 2012, Mississippi State 20-7 in 2013, LSU 20-13 in 2014, Arkansas 14-13 in 2014 and Tennessee 19-14 in 2015. If stretching the statistic back to 2011, Alabama’s record moves to 6-1. Alabama won the national championship against LSU 21-0, although it lost the regular season matchup 9-6. It should be noted Alabama’s special team unit was particularly weak in 2011. Primary kicker Cade Foster finished his Alabama career with a 57 percent accuracy on field goal attempts with a paltry 22 percent accuracy on field goal attempts during the 2011 season. Backup Jeremy Shelley replaced him in the championship game. Current kicker Adam Griffith is 67 percent accurate on field goal attempts, both for his career at Alabama and this season. Alabama also has All-SEC punter JK Scott.
