Ad Disclosure
When non-SEC schools take down an SEC team, it’s a headline. When a non-Power 5 takes down an SEC school, it’s mayhem.
It happened five times last season: The Citadel beat South Carolina, Houston and Western Kentucky both handled Vanderbilt, Memphis bested Ole Miss and Toledo topped Arkansas.
Occasionally an SEC team literally pays for its own beatdown.
Even Vegas doesn’t often see it coming, but here are six games from 2016 that could produce an upset if the big boys aren’t careful.
SEPT. 3: SOUTHERN MISS AT KENTUCKY
Southern Mississippi has to contend every year with being the little brother to Mississippi State and Ole Miss. That makes the Eagles dangerous when they travel to other SEC teams with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove.
QB Nick Mullens is a playmaker, and Kentucky returns just four players on defense. If you’re looking for an SEC team to fall on opening Saturday, it could happen in Lexington.
SEPT. 24: MISSISSIPPI STATE AT UMASS
UMass decided to go independent, giving it a schedule that includes Florida, Mississippi State and South Carolina. Against the Bulldogs in the fourth game of the season, the Minutemen have nothing to lose.
They have a lot of holes to fill but junior college transfer quarterback Andrew Ford is potentially exciting. And Mississippi State has had some trouble against lesser powers. In 2012-14, the Bulldogs in the third, sixth and second games of those seasons struggled to beat Troy, Bowling Green and UAB.
OCT. 22: TENNESSEE STATE AT VANDERBILT
Vanderbilt lost to Western Kentucky and scraped by Middle Tennessee last season. The Commodores lost to Temple and barely beat UMass in 2014.
That isn’t to say they will lose to this Ohio Valley school in 2016, but there won’t be a home field advantage for either of the Nashville schools.
OCT. 22: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE AT MISSOURI
Middle Tennessee has recruited well and has a potentially explosive offense. Missouri’s pass defense is equipped to match the Blue Raiders there, but where will the Tigers’ offense be late October?
Offensive coordinator Josh Heupel has a lot of bodies. It’s going to take the cream to rise for Missouri to avoid a loss like the home one to Indiana in 2014, an otherwise 4-8 Hoosiers team that was glad to hand the SEC an L.
NOV. 5: GEORGIA SOUTHERN AT OLE MISS
Ole Miss goes to Arkansas, to LSU and hosts Auburn in three consecutive weeks before an off-week against Georgia Southern. Maybe. Georgia Southern has a tendency to do some unexpected things.
It beat Florida in 2013, won the Sun Belt in 2014 and took Georgia to overtime last season. It is still pretty recent memory that Ole Miss lost to Jacksonville State. Looking over the Eagles isn’t a good idea.
NOV. 19: UTSA AT TEXAS A&M
The Vegas spread will be in Texas A&M’s favor, but that spread will have to wait to determine how spread out it will be.
That’s because UTSA, the Roadrunners, have an offense that if lit could produce some problems for bad defenses. Jarveon Williams is one of the best backs in Conference USA, last season rushing for 1,042 yards and 8 touchdowns on 173 carries.
That is six yards per tote heading to College Station against a run defense that ranked last in the SEC in 2014 and next-to-last in 2015, improving by only about two yards.
