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This Saturday will mark the 12th time that Alabama and LSU have gone head-to-head since Nick Saban returned to the collegiate level in 2007.
During that time, Saban is 8-3 against his former team, including the last six in a row.
The Tigers bring a 6-2 (3-1) record with them to Tuscaloosa, while the Tide boast an 8-0 (5-0) mark.
After an embarrassing loss to Troy in Week 5, LSU has climbed its way back to relevancy as it sits at No. 19 in the first 2017 College Football Playoff rankings.
Will the momentum of their current three-game win streak be enough to hand the top-ranked Tide their first loss of the season?
Here are 8 bold predictions for the game:
1. Jalen Hurts will throw for three TDs
Hurts has thrown for three or more touchdowns in a game twice in his career — both last season, against Mississippi State (4) and UT-Chattanooga (3).
In fact, there has only been two games this season — Colorado State in Week 3 and Ole Miss in Week 5 — in which the sophomore quarterback has thrown for even two touchdowns.
LSU’s pass rush is second in the conference in sacks (26), and Hurts hasn’t proven to be much of a threat with his arm.
That’s what makes this prediction so bold. The Tigers will sell out to stop the run, and Hurts — unlike last season — will make them pay for it through the air.
2. Derrius Guice averages more than 4 yards per carry
Leonard Fournette averaged only 2.54 yards per carry in three games against Alabama. To put that into perspective, Fournette, now NFL rookie for the Jaguars, has run for 4.59 yards per carry against pro defenses.
Guice did have a 4.0 yards-per-carry average against Alabama last season, but he did it with only two carries for 8 yards.
The Tide lead the nation in run defense — holding opponents to 66.38 yards and 2.31 per carry — but Guice could end up breaking one long run that allows him to do what no other LSU starting running back has done since Michael Ford in 2011 — 11 carries for 72 yards (a 6.6-yard average).
3. Alabama’s pass rush has its best day of the season
LSU is ranked No. 63 in the nation in sacks allowed (15) while Alabama is tied at No. 21 in sacks earned (23).
After only having five in the first four games, the Tide’s defense has averaged 4.5 sacks over its last four contests.
Sophomore edge rusher Anfernee Jennings still hasn’t seen his first sack this season, but he’s still managed to be a major contributor in getting after opposing quarterbacks.
According to CFB Film Room, Jennings is currently third in the SEC in QB pressures (21) behind only Auburn’s Jeff Holland (34) and Vanderbilt’s Charles Wright (22). He’s done this despite missing two games with a sprained ankle.
4. Danny Etling throws two or more interceptions
Etling threw only one interception against the Tide last season, but he also only completed 45.8 percent of his passes for 92 yards.
So far, Etling has been able to avoid throwing interceptions in 2017 — he has nine touchdowns to only one pick — but that could change in his first trip to Tuscaloosa.
Alabama is first in the SEC — and tied for 12th in the nation — in interceptions (11).
The emergence of former walk-on Levi Wallace (3 interceptions) has allowed this secondary to flourish with no major weaknesses, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Etling make more than one costly mistake.
5. Josh Jacobs will score the only rushing TD of the game
Like with a lot of other statistical categories, Alabama leads the SEC in rushing touchdowns with 28.
None of those has come from sophomore running back Josh Jacobs, however.
There were some questions as to whether or not Jacobs would suit up for Saturday’s rivalry game, but Saban laid those worries to rest following the Tide’s final open practice of the week.
LSU is going to try to limit Alabama’s run game, and it has the pieces up front to cause the Tide some trouble. Don’t be surprised if the smallest back on the roster (5-10, 212 pounds) ends up providing the lone rushing touchdown for either team.
If that happens, expect it to come from outside of the red zone.
6. LSU holds Alabama to under 200 yards rushing
Alabama is averaging 298.75 rushing yards per game.
The Tide have only been held under 200 yards once, and that was to a stingy Florida State defense (173 yards) that was considered one of the nation’s best at the time.
We are likely to see one of two things come Saturday: 1) Alabama destroys the Tigers in the run game or 2) Alabama is forced to create offense through the air due to limited success on the ground.
Since this is suppose to be an article about “bold” predictions, might as well go with the latter.
7. Andy Pappanastos has a career day
Don’t look now, but former Ole Miss walk-on Andy Pappanastos has risen to fourth in the conference in field goal conversion percentage (81.3).
After going 3-for-5 against FSU in the opening week of the season, the senior has converted 13 of his last 14 attempts (92.9 percent).
Alabama should be able to move the ball, but LSU is third in the SEC when it comes to allowing touchdowns in the red zone (48 percent).
This “bend but don’t break” mentality should lead to plenty of opportunities for Pappanastos.
8. Tide notches biggest margin of victory vs. LSU since Saban arrived
Since 2007, Alabama’s largest margin of victory against LSU has been 21 points, which it has achieved twice — in the national championship game in 2011 (21-0) and in 2013 (38-17).
As of Thursday night, the Tide was a 21-point favorite over the Tigers according to OddsShark — which provides online sports gambling information.
Alabama is 4-1 against the spread this season when playing SEC teams — it didn’t cover the 25.5-point line against Texas A&M in Week 6 (27-19 final).
With the level of dominance that Alabama has shown against conference opponents, it’s possible — even likely — that they’ll be making that 5-1 on Saturday.
Clint helps cover the SEC West for Saturday Down South. His work can also be found on USA TODAY Sports, The 'Bama Beat podcast and The Bullpen with TonyMac and The Lamb. Previous stops include SEC Country, 247Sports and Touchdown Alabama Magazine.
