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ACC futures market analysis: Breaking down CFP odds, win totals for ACC newcomers
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With the 2024 season now just weeks away, it’s a perfect time to examine the futures market with regards to the ACC.
ESPN’s FPI has updated its projected odds for every FBS team to win its conference, reach the College Football Playoff or win the national championship, amongst other benchmarks. By using FPI’s projections and comparing them to implied odds from a variety of sports betting apps, we can derive “expected value” from each possible wager.
Here are a couple of +EV props (based on FPI projections and current betting odds) followed by a few ACC win total picks:
SMU to make the College Football Playoff (+1000 at bet365)
- Implied odds: 9.09%
- FPI probability: 16.6%
- Expected value: $82.60 (on a $100 wager)
This is a long shot, but FPI is bullish on the Mustangs during their first season of ACC play. FPI gives SMU an 16.6% chance to reach the Playoff, while the +1000 price at bet365 equates to implied odds of 9.09%.
With the CFP expanding to 12 teams, the ACC champion has a clear path to the Playoff for the first time. The 5 highest-ranked conference champions will secure automatic berths, which means all SMU would (likely) have to do is win the ACC Championship in order to secure a berth. Failing that, it’s possible — although admittedly unlikely — for SMU to also earn a berth as an at-large selection.
SMU’s schedule sets up very well for a run to the conference title game. The Mustangs host Florida State in late September and they don’t have to play projected contenders Clemson, Miami, NC State or North Carolina. They’ll have a chance to be favored in every conference road game this season except their trip to Louisville on Oct. 5.
As for the team itself, SMU returns quarterback Preston Stone and several other key contributors from last year’s squad. SMU ranks 11th nationally in weighted returning production, per ESPN’s SP+ metric. ESPN’s Bill Connelly points out that returning production often correlates well with improvement and regression. That’s good news for a SMU team that won 11 games a year ago.
A bet on SMU to win the ACC at +1800 (via bet365) returns an expected value of $71 on a $100 bet.
Miami to miss the College Football Playoff (-265 at FanDuel)
- Implied odds: 72.60%
- FPI probability: 81.8%
- Expected value: $12.67 (on a $100 wager)
Miami is a longshot to make the CFP this season after going just 7-6 in 2024, but there still seems to be some value in fading the Hurricanes here. Miami arguably has the most talented roster in the ACC, but coach Mario Cristobal hasn’t done much with a considerable talent edge in his 2 years at the helm so far. Miami is 12-13 under Cristobal after going 15-8 in its previous 2 seasons under Manny Diaz.
If Miami loses at Florida in Week 1, it would have an uphill battle to earning a CFP berth. The rest of Miami’s nonconference slate is weak, so it might need to win the ACC Championship in order to get into the 12-team field. The margins are thin enough that I’m comfortable fading Miami’s CFP hopes even at this number.
ACC win totals
Here are a few ACC win total picks based on FPI’s projections:
Stanford over 3.5 wins (-144 at FanDuel)
FPI is much higher on the Cardinal than the betting markets are. ESPN’s model gives Stanford a 42.7% chance to get to 6 wins and bowl eligibility — let alone the 4 victories that this prop requires. Overall, FPI is projecting Stanford for 5.2 wins this season. Stanford has very winnable games against Cal Poly, Wake Forest, Cal and San Jose State. It could also pull off an upset or 2 against teams like TCU, Virginia Tech or Louisville at home.
Cal over 5.5 wins (-140 at ESPN BET)
Similarly to Stanford, FPI’s numbers indicate that the betting markets are undervaluing Cal as it prepares for its first ACC season. FPI is projecting Cal to win 6.6 games this season and gives the Golden Bears a 71.1% chance to hit the 6-win threshold.
Syracuse under 7 wins (+100 on DraftKings)
FPI is projecting the Orange to win just 5.8 games in Year 1 under new coach Fran Brown. This win total being at 7 provides a nice safety net, with a push being a somewhat-likely outcome. But 6 wins appears to be a lot more likely than 8, so I love getting this prop at even-money.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
