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Editor’s Note: We will track various gambling statistics related to SEC teams throughout the season and update them every week.
Arkansas has outperformed Vegas expectations better than any SEC team in 2014.
The Razorbacks are 5-1 against the spread. The team is a combined +87.5 since failing to cover as a 17-point underdog at Auburn to open the season. Since then, Arkansas crushed Texas Tech, should’ve beaten Texas A&M and lost to Alabama by one point. Georgia fans, be wary of the Hogs this weekend.
Ole Miss remains unbeaten ATS at 5-0-1. Kentucky (+56 overall, 5-1) and Mississippi State (+45, 5-1) also have been profitable for gambling backers.
SEC teams went 2-1 in Vegas and are 22-14-2 ATS vs. non-conference opponents this season.
The first chart below is a running tally of how each SEC team has performed against the spread this season. In other words, if Alabama is favored by 10 points, but wins by 20, the Crimson Tide is +10 for that week. It gives us an idea of how teams are performing relative to expectations.
| Team | ATS Combined +/- | ATS Record |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Arkansas | +80.5 | 5-1 |
| 2. Ole Miss | +76 | 5-0-1 |
| 3. Kentucky | +56 | 5-1 |
| 4. Tennessee | +46.5 | 3-3 |
| 5. Mississippi State | +45 | 5-1 |
| 6. Texas A&M | +38.5 | 3-4 |
| 7. Georgia | +37.5 | 3-3 |
| 8. Auburn | +22 | 3-3 |
| 9. Florida | +4.5 | 2-3 |
| 10. LSU | -2 | 3-3-1 |
| 11. Missouri | -8 | 3-3 |
| 12. Alabama | -31.5* | 1-4* |
| 13. South Carolina | -56.5 | 1-5 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | -68.5 | 3-4 |
*The game against Florida Atlantic ended as a no contest because it was suspended and finalized before 55 minutes had been played. Alabama was leading 41-0 at the time. The Las Vegas Hilton line for the game closed at Bama -41.5.
The chart below tracks the average line for each SEC team throughout the season as an indicator of perceived strength. Alabama’s average Vegas line through five games is minus-26, highest in the conference.
The numbers give us an interesting look at expectation levels in the SEC West. Alabama (-23.2) is favored by more than three touchdowns on average. That’s nearly two touchdowns better than Mississippi State (-11.3) and Ole Miss (-11.2) despite the Tide facing West Virginia in the non-conference portion of its schedule.
Alabama was favored by 46.5 against Southern Miss, while Mississippi State was favored by 30.5 points against the Golden Eagles.
Thanks to a line that favored the Vols by nearly four touchdowns against Chattanooga, Tennessee now has been a favorite in its games on average, while Vanderbilt, nearly a three-touchdown favorite against Charleston Southern, has been an underdog of about a touchdown on average.
| Team | Average Line | Biggest Line |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Alabama | -23.2 | -46.5 vs. Southern Miss |
| 2. Georgia | -18.9 | -42 vs. Troy |
| 3. Auburn | -16.8 | -34 vs. San Jose State |
| 4. LSU | -16 | -43 vs. New Mexico State |
| 5. Texas A&M | -15.8 | -47 vs. Lamar |
| 6. Florida | -13.4# | -41.5 vs. Eastern Michigan |
| 7. Mississippi State | -11.3 | -30.5 vs. Southern Miss |
| 8. Ole Miss | -11.2 | -26 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette |
| 9. South Carolina | -8.6 | -21.5 at Vanderbilt |
| 10. Kentucky | -8.5 | -23.5 vs. Tennessee-Martin |
| 11. Missouri | -7.3 | -26 vs. South Dakota State |
| 12. Arkansas | -3.3 | -40.5 vs. Nicholls State |
| 13. Tennessee | -1.1 | -26.5 vs. Chattanooga |
| 14. Vanderbilt | +6.6 | -20 vs. Charleston Southern |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
The following chart tracks the average over/under for every SEC team as well as whether each team’s games go over or under the posted Vegas total.
Despite scoring 34 points on the road, Georgia went under the posted total for the first time all year, and by a significant amount. The Bulldogs shut out Missouri as the game fell 23.5 points shy of the total.
Tennessee and Vanderbilt played FCS teams and Vegas did not post game totals for those matchups last week. The over/under for Commodores games averages less than 50 points.
Meanwhile, Texas A&M (68.5) averages the highest over/under, more than a touchdown ahead of Auburn (60.9).
| Team | Average Over/Under | Biggest Over/Under | Over/Under (Results) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Texas A&M | 68.5 | 76.5 vs. Lamar | 3/4 |
| 2. Arkansas | 63.5 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 4/2 |
| 3. Auburn | 60.9 | 67.0 vs. San Jose State | 3/3 |
| 4. Missouri | 60.4 | 71.5 vs. Indiana | 2/4 |
| 5. South Carolina | 59.1 | 65.0 vs. East Carolina | 4/2 |
| 6. Mississippi State | 58.5 | 73.5 vs. Texas A&M | 3/2 |
| 7. Georgia | 58.0 | 64.0 vs. Troy | 5/1 |
| 8. Ole Miss | 56.2 | 64.0 vs. Texas A&M | 2/4 |
| 9. Tennessee | 55.8 | 59.5 vs. Arkansas State | 1/4 |
| 10. Alabama | 53.6 | 56.5 vs. Southern Miss | 3/2 |
| 11. LSU | 52.9 | 66.0 vs. Sam Houston State | 4/3 |
| 12. Kentucky | 51.9 | 55.0 vs. South Carolina | 4/2 |
| 13. Florida | 51.6# | 56.5 vs. Eastern Michigan | 4/1 |
| 14. Vanderbilt | 49.6 | 53.0 vs. Georgia | 3/3 |
#Florida entered the game against Idaho as a 37-point favorite, but after a long delay and the opening kickoff, lightning cancelled the contest. The line was final so it is still included in our average.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
