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Alabama basketball preview: 10 things to know (and a prediction) about the 2022-23 season
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The fate of Alabama’s season doesn’t depend solely on the health of guard Jahvon Quinerly.
It just kind of feels that way.
One of Bama’s brightest stars during last season’s 19-14 campaign that got the Crimson Tide to the NCAA Tournament, Quinerly suffered a left knee injury in the 1st-round loss to Notre Dame.
But 4th-year head coach Nate Oats had promising words for Tide fans about 10 days ago, words that could significantly impact how the 2022-23 season ultimately looks going forward and where this season ultimately ends up for the Crimson Tide.
Oats said on Oct. 25 that Quinerly is on track to return to game action, possibly as soon as early December. He also said that Quinerly had returned to parts of practice.
Alabama's Jahvon Quinerly (knee) has returned to parts of practice and could return to game action "by early December", per Nate Oats.
Quinerly averaged 13.8 PPG and 4.2 APG last season.
— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) October 25, 2022
It’s not that the Tide don’t have other options, other weapons, other possibilities to make this season a little more special than just a quick trip to the Big Dance. But it’s that Quinerly is so important to this team. And getting him back sooner rather than later will not only help in the present but also have long-term effects, because the rest of the roster needs to learn how to play with him again.
Quinerly averaged 13.8 points and 4.2 assists last season.
He is so crucial, so vital to Alabama. But the Tide will have to adjust to life without him for the 1st month of the season (they hope), starting with Monday night’s season opener at home against Longwood.
With the Quinerly Saga as the launching point, here are 10 things to know about the 2022-23 season in Tuscaloosa and a prediction about where (and when) the season might end up:
1. It’s Miller Time
Big things are expected of 5-star recruit and McDonald’s All-American Brandon Miller. But he is a freshman, and there is always that adjustment period — even if it’s brief — for even the most talented players coming out of high school.
Still, some think the 6-9 forward from Antioch, Tenn., could do the unthinkable and win SEC Player of the Year in his 1st season in Tuscaloosa. If Miller does develop that quickly, like some are predicting, then he and Quinerly could develop into a deadly guard-forward tandem.
Miller opened eyes in the preseason, scoring 33 points and grabbing 9 rebounds in Alabama’s scrimmage against TCU.
2. Keeping turnovers down
Until Quinerly returns, ball-handling duties will likely be split between 5-star true freshman Jaden Bradley and Mark Sears, a 2022 First-Team All-MAC transfer from Ohio.
This area is so huge, especially without Quinerly, because the Tide struggled with turnovers last season, turning it over on almost one-fifth of all their possessions.
Sears could get the 1st shot at point guard in Monday’s opener.
3. Here comes Welch
Dom Welch was a 4-year starter at St. Bonaventure. So not only does he bring talent to Tuscaloosa, the 6-5 guard will bring a wealth of experience and savvy having logged all those minutes in upstate New York.
Welch averaged 12.3 points last season for the Bonnies and added 6.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Oats has had his eye on Welch for a long time, having recruited the Buffalo, N.Y., native while he was the coach at Buffalo.
All these years later, Oats and Welch are together at last, in Tuscaloosa of all places, and it should be a great marriage between coach and experienced rotation player who is used to winning.
4. Burnett is finally back
Sophomore swingman Nimari Burnett should bring a ton of versatility to the Tide this season. Bama missed that 2-way play last season after Burnett tore his ACL last October.
Now the Texas Tech transfer is finally in the fold for Oats. Burnett brings length, has a strong frame, is physical and can shoot. While Burnett is listed at 6-4, the former McDonald’s All-American plays a lot bigger than that.
Burnett is a 38 percent 3-point shooter and can bring top-level defense to Alabama’s rotation, and that 2-way play will be invaluable to the Tide. The word is he’s also a top-level leader, taking on a leadership role with the team last season even while being out with his injury.
5. Griffen’s proving ground
Rylan Griffen is a 4-star freshman out of Dallas who projects at the 2-spot for the Tide. He might not get a lot of playing time initially, but this might be 1 of those players who you forget is still a freshman by the time we get to February.
By that time, the 6-5 Griffen could be firmly established as a rotation player. If that happens, it only makes Oats’ team deeper and more dangerous to the likes of Kentucky and Arkansas in the SEC.
Griffen can reportedly score at all 3 levels and could help the Tide be a better defensive team, even as a freshman.
6. Bigs need to be big for Tide
Alabama has struggled in recent years with a lack of size and depth on the inside, and some of that has been because its big guys haven’t been healthy.
This season, the Tide will try to get away from that narrative with the help of 4 post players who should make up the rotation inside. Returning players Noah Gurley and Charles Bediako had disappointing 1st seasons in Tuscaloosa, with Gurley, a stretch-4 player, shooting a career-worst 25.4 percent from 3-point territory.
Bediako wasn’t physical enough, and that needs to change this season for Oats. Bediako developing that physicality along with Gurley finding his shot would be huge boosts in 2022-23. Both of those things could turn the Tide’s perennial inside weakness into a position of strength.
7. Clowney becoming part of the show
Noah Clowney is yet another highly touted recruit for Oats, a 4-star freshman from South Carolina who wasn’t thought to be part of the Tide’s immediate plans this season. But boy, has that changed this preseason.
With Bediako dealing with an undisclosed injury, the 6-9 Clowney has been turning heads at the 5-spot with his energy on the inside. He even posted a few double-doubles on the Tide’s foreign tour.
Oats could use a platoon system with Bediako and Clowney at center, and that would be a bonus, considering what the expectations were for Clowney this season.
8. Reaching for the sky
Oats and the Tide are going to need prime play from Darius “Sky” Miles, who is 1 of only 3 returning players from last season who got real minutes.
Miles is a 6-6 athlete of the highest order (thus, his “Sky” nickname) who has shown glimpses of being able to become a bona fide starter for Oats. So it’s all about being consistent for Miles and being healthy, too, as he was reportedly spotted in a boot recently, so who knows if he’ll be ready from the jump against Longwood.
This is 1 of those “ifs” for Alabama — if the junior forward from Washington can get it together this season, it makes the entire team’s outlook that much different. Time will tell.
9. Is Bradley the point man?
Time will tell, but Bradley could emerge as the point guard that Alabama has lacked the past few years.
Yes, he’s a true freshman. And, yes, true freshmen, even in the 1-and-Done Era, don’t normally just grow into the starting point guard spot overnight.
But the 6-3 Bradley is reportedly a very smooth ball-handler and a great distributor who can run things in the halfcourt and in transition. All signs point to him being a good defender, too. So Bama wouldn’t be sacrificing defense on the other end if Bradley does end up getting heavy minutes.
10. Making up for those departures
There is so much to like about this Tide team, especially if Quinerly is Quinerly when he eventually comes back. There are a lot of key additions of the freshman and transfer kind, a lot of big-time potential and a head coach who has tasted success in Tuscaloosa.
But ultimately, the Tide are going to need to answer for the guys who are gone now. The trio of Keon Ellis, Jaden Shackelford and JD Davison is gone, and their production, leadership, everything, will need to be replaced, in some fashion or another.
If that happens, then the Tide can have a solid season, even a special one. But if not, then a lot is going to be asked of Quinerly, and we just don’t know about his long-term health — not yet.
Prediction time
After posting a 26-7 overall record and a 16-2 SEC mark in a 2020-21 season that ended in the Sweet 16, Oats’ team still made the Tournament last season, but it just wasn’t the same. That 19-14 record was accompanied by a just-OK 9-9 league mark, good for a tie for 5th. Ultimately, Quinerly’s injury during that 1st-round NCAA Tournament loss to Notre Dame was the finishing blow for the Tide.
This season — and this is the biggest “if” of all — if Quinerly comes back in December and is healthy, strong and ready to do great things, then we see this Tide roster being able to take a big step forward. Maybe it won’t end in the Sweet 16 like 2 years ago, but Oats will navigate this group into the NCAA Tournament again, and it will all end with a Round of 32 loss this time.
Cory Nightingale, a former sportswriter and sports editor at the Miami Herald and Palm Beach Post, is a South Florida-based freelance writer who covers Alabama for SaturdayDownSouth.com.
