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Alabama better suited to run the ball, stop the run than Ole Miss
By John Crist
Published:
No team in the SEC has managed to beat Alabama three times in a row since coach Nick Saban came to Tuscaloosa.
Ole Miss has a chance to be the first Saturday at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium — the Rebels defeated the Crimson Tide in 2014 at home and then again last year on the road. Nevertheless, ‘Bama is about a 10-point favorite.
“We believe that we can play with anyone in the country,” Mississippi coach Hugh Freeze said Monday, according to the Clarion-Ledger. “That doesn’t mean we can beat them on any given day, but we do believe we have gotten to a point where we can step on a field and compete with them.”
As is usually the case, the quarterback battle is getting most of the attention. For the Rebs, senior Chad Kelly is the premier passer in the conference and has already thrown 7 touchdown passes in two games. He’ll be opposed by Tide freshman Jalen Hurts, who has 4 TDs through the air and 2 more on the ground.
But neither program has run the ball particularly well. While that’s no surprise for Ole Miss, it certainly is for Alabama.
The Rebels are built around Freeze’s up-tempo system — and Kelly’s right arm, of course — and emphasize speed over power. Oftentimes their most effective runner is Kelly, an underrated athlete outside the pocket.
The Crimson Tide, on the other hand, have run it between the tackles pretty effectively for a decade now under Saban. True, offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin has instituted some spread and hurry-up elements since his arrival in 2014, but just last season Derrick Henry set a league record with 2,219 yards rushing.
In the SEC, ‘Bama is tied for seventh in rushing offense (183 yards per game), while Mississippi is 12th (120.5).
There is even more of a disparity when it comes to defending the run. The Tide, to the surprise of nobody, is first in the conference — they allow a paltry 43.5 yards per game. The Rebs are again 12th, surrendering an even 197.
Doing some simple math, Alabama appears to have a clear advantage offensively and defensively on the ground. The Crimson Tide defend the run as well as any team in the country, plus Ole Miss has a pass-heavy scheme anyway. Additionally, ‘Bama might run the rock better facing a Rebels rushing D that’s struggling statistically.
However, it’s only been two games. Numbers can indeed lie. Mississippi’s woes stopping the run look to be exaggerated.
In the opener, the Rebs held Florida State tailback Dalvin Cook — a preseason Heisman Trophy candidate — to 91 yards on 23 carries. He found a little more daylight late because Ole Miss was on the field for 93 plays.
In Week 2, giving up 233 yards on the ground to lowly Wofford seems alarming on the surface. But remember that the Terriers employ a triple-option offense that practically ignores the aerial attack altogether. They threw just 9 passes in four quarters. With 57 rushing attempts, that’s only 4.1 yards per carry.
For the Tide, replacing Henry in the backfield is the two-headed sophomore combo of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris (above).
Scarbrough, who was expected to be the primary runner for Alabama, is off to a slow start to say the least. While he’s scored in each of the first two games, he has accumulated a measly 55 yards on 16 carries.
Harris, a five-star recruit in high school just like Scarbrough, was somewhat of an afterthought during fall camp. He hasn’t found the end zone yet, but he’s looked explosive here and there with 183 yards on 20 attempts — that’s a healthy 9.2 yards per rush. The more Scarbrough stumbles, the more Harris will play.
As for Ole Miss, Freeze and Co. simply have to decide how important running the ball is to their game plan.
When he’s been given opportunities, Akeem Judd (above) has been effective with the pigskin in his hands. He had 44 yards on 8 carries against FSU — including a gorgeous 11-yard touchdown run — and 64 more on 11 rushes vs. Wofford.
To reiterate, Kelly is capable of adding an extra dimension to the ground game. Whether on designed QB keepers or scrambling after passing plays break down, he gashed the ‘Noles in the first half and moved the sticks on a few occasions with his legs. But he finished with only 15 yards and 13 carries due to five second-half sacks.
Every coach strives to be balanced offensively, although this might not be the week for Freeze to worry about being 50-50.
On the one hand, making an effort to establish the run facing the Crimson Tide seems like a futile gesture. They have allowed a grand total of seven 100-yard rushers in the nine-plus years Saban has patrolled the sideline. Ole Miss gained just 92 yards against them last season.
That being said, a one-dimensional approach through the air can be dangerous for any offense. Against most defenses, letting Kelly to go full chuck-and-duck is acceptable. But not only does ‘Bama have arguably the best front seven in the college game, its secondary is littered with future pros, too.
Safeties Eddie Jackson and Ronnie Harrison in particular erased a prolific Western Kentucky passing offense in Week 2.
Kelly and Hurts will garner most of the headlines ahead of Tide-Rebels in Oxford. They’re the present and future, respectively, under center in the SEC. But both could use a helping hand from their backfield mates.
For Kelly in particular, asking him to win this game by himself would be unfair. Despite a 1-0 record against Alabama in his career, he was on the right end of several fortuitous bounces — it’s not unreasonable to suggest that the outcome might even have been a bit fluky. Luck tends to run out when matched up with Saban.
“You get a few breaks that go your way and find a way to win one, and we have done that a couple of times,” Freeze said. “Confidence does come from that, and our kids will be confident Saturday. It is still a tall task, but it is one I think our kids will look forward to.”
John Crist is the senior writer for Saturday Down South, a member of the FWAA and a voter for the Heisman Trophy. Send him an e-mail, like him on Facebook or follow him on Twitter.
John Crist is an award-winning contributor to Saturday Down South.
