National Championship: Numbers, breakdown and prediction

It’s top-ranked Clemson vs. Alabama for all the marbles tonight in Glendale, Ariz. Both of these teams are among the most talented in college football and it should be quite a scene.

There are quite a few interesting tidbits heading into the contest and this match-up is quite intriguing.

The Quick 10

1

The number of National Championships Clemson has. The last time the Tigers won it was in 1981. Ironically, the coach that won it, Danny Ford, was an Alabama graduate who took over the Tigers program on an interim basis without ever having even been a coordinator — just like Dabo Swinney.

2

The number of assistant coaches in this game who haven’t gotten enough credit for their team’s success this season. Crimson Tide offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin is in his second year with a first-year starter at quarterback (Jacob Coker) and had to adjust his entire system to take advantage of the talent Alabama has (compared to the skill set of Blake Sims last season). Clemson offensive line coach Robbie Caldwell should have been a Broyles Award finalist with what he’s accomplished. The Tigers start true freshman Mitch Hyatt at offensive tackle and have all season, yet Clemson’s offensive line has paved the way for 3,200 rushing yards and has given up only 16 sacks this season. … It’s also the jersey number of Crimson Tide Heisman Trophy-winning running back Derrick Henry and the number of 1,000-yard rushers (running back Wayne Gallman and quarterback Deshaun Watson) Clemson has this season.

3

The number of victories Clemson has in the overall series with Bama. The Crimson Tide leads the overall series, 12-3, has won 12 straight against Clemson and has not lost to the Tigers since the 1900s. … It’s also the number of wins in a row the Tigers are looking for against SEC competition. Clemson has defeated rival South Carolina in each of the last two seasons.

4

The number of full-time assistant coaches who are Clemson graduates on Swinney’s staff. Co-offensive coordinators Tony Elliott and Jeff Scott, along with quarterbacks coach Brandon Streeter and tight ends coach Danny Pearman all went to Clemson. … It’s also the number of SEC Championships that Nick Saban has at Alabama and the number of top 25 wins Clemson has this season (a school record) plus the jersey number of Tigers quarterback DeShaun Watson.

5

The average number of yards per rushing attempt for the Tigers this season. Clemson has averaged 228.6 yards per game on the ground through 14 games in 2015. … It’s also the number of seasons in a row that the Tigers have won 10-plus games. Only Alabama has a better mark in college football over that time period in terms of number of wins. … It’s also the margin of victory that the Tide defeated Tennessee by (19-14) in October. That’s significant because Clemson’s personnel, according to several sources in college coaching, in terms of match-ups is similar to the Vols, who obviously gave Alabama all it could handle in Tuscaloosa.

6

The number of rushing touchdowns the Alabama defense has allowed this season, tied for the best in the nation with Boston College. The Crimson Tide has allowed only 70.8 yards per game on the ground and has the country’s best rushing defense. … It’s also the number (6.07 for Bama, 6.29 for Clemson) of three-and-outs on average per game that both of these defenses are forcing this season.

7

The number of first-team All-SEC players that Alabama will start this evening, including Jonathan Allen and A’Shawn Robinson (defensive line), Henry, safety Eddie Jackson, center Ryan Kelly, linebacker Reggie Ragland and offensive tackle Cam Robinson. also the number of receiving touchdowns Tigers tight end Jordan Leggett has this season, a team high, the number of wins Clemson has away from home this season, a school record, and the total number of losses the Tigers senior class has (46-7).

8

The number of FBS teams to win 14 games in a season, including the Tigers who are 14-0. … Eighth is also where Clemson’s defense ranks nationally in total sacks. The Tigers’ talented defensive front has accumulated 43 sacks this season (3.07 per game). That being said, Alabama is far and away tops in the country in this category with 50 sacks (3.57 per game).

9

The number of non-offensive touchdowns Alabama has scored this season- four punt returns, four interception returns and a blocked punt return. … It’s also the number of top 10-ranked rushing defenses the Tide has faced this season and Henry has averaged 136.7 yards per game and 5.23 yards per carry against those opponents. Clemson has the No. 18 rush defense in the country and is allowing 124.4 yards per contest. … It’s also the number of field goals opponents have kicked against the Crimson Tide defense once reaching the red zone this season and the number of tackles for loss the Tigers had in a 37-17 win against Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl (semifinals).

10

The number of games in a row that Clemson has posted 500 or more yards of total offense. This also is a school record and the Tigers all-time are 95-0-1 when posting 500 or more yards.

Final Take

Championships are won and lost in the trenches and Alabama, particularly with its defensive front against Clemson’s offensive front, has a clear advantage there. That being said, if Watson is able to run the ball, that’s an X factor and somewhat of an equalizer that can keep Alabama off balance. Also, the Tigers passing game, which utilizes short and intermediate routes as well as any team in the country can be problematic.

The Tigers defense can stop the run and they have an outstanding defensive line (even with Shaq Lawson possibly limited), but Alabama’s offensive line is one of the best in college football. If the Tide can get Henry going early, that could definitely open up some downfield opportunities for Coker, Calvin Ridley and the rest of the playmakers Alabama has. If Clemson is able to slow Henry and force the Tide into longer passing downs, then the advantage does to Clemson’s defense in this game.

If Alabama is going to win the game, it has to move the ball on offense and can’t get into a fourth quarter type of deal where Watson can make magic happen on a final drive win the game hanging in the balance. If Clemson is going to win the game, it has to stop Henry and find a way to get things going against what is by far the best defense the Tigers have played this season across the board.

Special teams also could be a factor. Alabama has made things happen in that department this season, Clemson not so much.

At the end of the day, it’s hard to see the Crimson Tide’s defensive line not continuing to be dominant and that’s going to cause disruption for Clemson and a big problem if the Tigers defense has to be on the field a bunch and continue to try to stop the hammer in Henry, along with the big-play capability Alabama has on the perimeter. This should be a slugfest and something tells me that the great players on the field — Henry and Watson — will be great individually at different times tonight at University of Phoenix Stadium, but Alabama’s defensive line will be the difference.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Clemson 21.

JC Shurburtt

Recruiting writer for Saturday Down South