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Is Alabama in danger of losing its perch atop college football on Saturday night?
By Clint Lamb
Published:
Alabama’s dominance over the last decade has been one of the most impressive runs not just in college football history, but in sports history.
Could one loss, in the season opener Saturday night against Florida State, signal the beginning of the end of Nick Saban’s reign of terror on the rest of the sport?
Saban has led the Crimson Tide to a 119-19 record (.862 winning percentage), five SEC championships (four out of the last five) and five national championship appearances (winning four) since arriving in Tuscaloosa in 2007. He’s produced 27 All-Americans and 22 first-round NFL draft picks in that time.
That level of dominance is remarkable, and with seven consecutive No. 1 recruiting classes, it doesn’t look like the train is going to be slowing down anytime soon — or, is it?
A loss to the Seminoles would mean that the Tide had lost consecutive games to ACC opponents.
That would certainly provide fuel for people such as Fox Sports blowhard Colin Cowherd, who two years ago declared that the Alabama dynasty was over. Since then, the Tide has made back-to-back national championship appearances — winning one.
Alabama spent the offseason regrouping after losing to Clemson 34-31 in the national championship game. The Tide need to replace several starters, especially on defense, but the expectation is that they should make another push for the national title this season.
In a lot of ways, Alabama has become the SEC. They’ve been the conference’s representative in every Playoff since the BCS was scrapped in 2015. While I’m sure the other SEC teams would rather be the face of the conference, they still like — and benefit from — the fact that their league is considered the premier conference in college football.
But, what if it weren’t anymore?
The question is simple: Would Alabama be able to recover from back-to-back losses to ACC opponents?
To explore this hypothetical, I solicited opinions from sources connected to both sides of Saturday night’s showdown of the No. 1 Tide and No. 3 ’Noles.
On the ’Bama side, it’s former Tide defensive end/linebacker William Ming (2009-13), someone who has seen how “The Process” works firsthand and would certainly understand what a second consecutive significant loss would mean for the Alabama program (and the SEC) moving forward.
For the ACC/Florida State perspective, it’s Dakota Moyer, an ACC expert and a writer for SB Nation’s Tomahawk Nation. The site covers the Seminoles, so he probably wouldn’t mind seeing an Alabama fall.
Here’s what those two had to say:
William Ming, former Tide player
“First off, I don’t think we have to worry about back-to-back ACC losses, as Coach Saban will have them ready to play. Even if we lose Saturday, the perch may not be as high, but I still see us being the dominant program overall.
“As long as Coach Saban is in Tuscaloosa and he is able to recruit and develop the caliber players he does, Alabama will be the staple program other teams want to be. Over the past couple of years, different sports reporters have said this is the beginning of the end of the Coach Saban era after Alabama losses, and they have all been wrong.
“I would stop listening to any reporters who make that call if Alabama loses (Saturday). I plan to be in Atlanta on Jan. 8, 2018.”
Dakota Moyer, ACC/FSU writer
“I don’t think so. Alabama can lose to FSU to open the season and still win the national title. They have a lot to replace on defense, so they may stumble out of the gate. But, at a certain point, they’ll just flat ‘out-talent’ everybody.
“We’ve seen Alabama drop a game early (Ole Miss, usually) and get back into the title conversation. Plus, two losses to ACC teams isn’t going to stop their insane level of recruiting.”
Final analysis
As much as the media likes to overreact at times, it seems like both Ming and Moyer believe that even with a loss, Alabama will still be viewed as the king of the hill. Yes, back-to-back losses aren’t a great look for the Tide, but it doesn’t define the direction the program is heading.
Besides, even at No. 3 in the nation, Florida State faces tough odds against Alabama. Oddsshark, an online site that does gambling analysis, has the Crimson Tide as a 7-point favorite over the Seminoles.
Clint helps cover the SEC West for Saturday Down South. His work can also be found on USA TODAY Sports, The 'Bama Beat podcast and The Bullpen with TonyMac and The Lamb. Previous stops include SEC Country, 247Sports and Touchdown Alabama Magazine.
