Alabama vs. Michigan State is an intriguing talent case study

Does raw talent (a.k.a. recruiting at a high level on paper) trump all or not so much? Does being ranked highly in February translate directly into being able to take on all comers and win something like a College Football Playoff?

Those are questions that countless coaches, pundits, analysts and fans ask on a daily basis.

The Alabama-Michigan State national semifinal/Cotton Bowl match-up is sure to provide an argument on one end or the other of those debates, which will continue regardless.

How both programs have been built to the point they are at now is quite a contrast when you consider the recruiting rankings.

The Crimson Tide has signed the nation’s No. 1 recruiting class for five cycles in a row.

Here’s where the Spartans have ranked in recruiting during those five cycles, per 247Sports Composite rankings.

2011: No. 32
2012: No. 33
2013: No. 35
2014: No. 25
2015: No. 22

So that’s two top 25 classes for Michigan State during the same time period that Alabama has signed the top class in the country.

The NFL Draft, which is another talent-indication metric, since 2012 bears out similar-type numbers. In the last four drafts, the Crimson Tide has had 32 players selected compared to 14 for the Spartans.

Looking at these talent-indicating metrics, one would think that there is a severe talent disadvantage for the Big Ten champion Spartans. The truth is that Alabama is the more talented team, but most are expecting a close, hard-fought game and rightfully so.

This contest, perhaps more so than any other, will show us just how much raw talent can mean in a single contest.

Both Alabama and Michigan State evaluate talent, develop talent and coach said talent as well as any two programs in the country. Both coaching staffs have their programs on rock solid foundations. Both have similar styles of play, relying on balanced offenses and fearsome defenses. Both have found a way to win when inevitable adversity has struck.

In many ways, outside of those earlier-stated talent metrics, the Crimson Tide and Spartans are mirror images of one another, which shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio is a former Saban assistant.

This contest also will show us how much of a difference a difference-making quarterback can make. Jake Coker has gotten a lot better for Alabama as the season has progressed and he’s not a liability, but Connor Cook of Michigan State is a difference-maker at the position. Cook is one of the true advantages heading into the game that the Spartans have when you line up the two teams.

So can having the best quarterback trump superior talent across the board in a game where the two teams are otherwise similar? That’s the question one has to ask when considering who to pick in this game. Michigan State played another team with the advantages in the talent metrics department in November — Ohio State in Columbus — and came away with a gritty 17-14 win.

Speaking of Ohio State, we saw last year in the College Football Playoff how important raw talent is. The Buckeyes were able to match Alabama in a 42-35 semifinal win and then clearly had better players across the board than Oregon in a 42-20 championship game victory.

Alabama hopes that last year was the start of a trend. That talent will carry you more than anything else in the college football playoff era. Michigan State hopes to prove that raw talent/recruiting rankings aren’t everything. It should be fascinating to see, at least for one game, which of these two theories is right.

JC Shurburtt

Recruiting writer for Saturday Down South