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We are only days away from a second rematch between Alabama and Clemson. Both teams are ready to make waves in the college football world, but which team has an advantage heading into Monday night’s Sugar Bowl?
Here’s a breakdown of who has the edge in various facets of the game:
When Alabama has the ball
Alabama’s offense is littered with playmakers. Guys such as Jalen Hurts, Calvin Ridley and Damien Harris are all capable of producing big plays. But the offensive line will have a tough time against a formidable Clemson defensive front.
Coming into the game, Clemson leads the nation in sacks (44), checks in with the No. 12 run defense and fields the nation’s No. 7 pass defense. That’s about as strong of a combination as you can have.
It’s possible that all four starters along the defensive front — Austin Bryant, Clellin Ferrell, Dexter Lawrence and Christian Wilkins — could be taken within the first two rounds of their respective NFL drafts.
While Alabama’s offensive line is talented, the unit is vulnerable — especially on the right side. The Tide are currently tied at No. 47 in the country in sacks allowed (22). Expect the Clemson defensive line to cause problems while playing the run and getting after the quarterback.
Advantage: Clemson
When Clemson has the ball
Alabama has to love the fact that Deshaun Watson is no longer playing for the Tigers. He produced 941 yards and eight touchdowns in the previous two matchups, which is the most of any player against an Alabama defense since Nick Saban took over the program in 2007.
That doesn’t mean that Clemson’s offense won’t present a challenge, however.
Kelly Bryant has done an admirable job replacing Watson, accounting for 3,324 total yards (2,678 passing, 646 rushing) and 24 touchdowns (13 passing, 11 rushing) this season. Clemson also has a dynamic duo at running back — Travis Etienne and Tavien Feaster, who have combined for 1,403 yards and 20 touchdowns this season while averaging 6.81 yards per carry.
The good news for the Tide is that some of the injury problems that have plagued the pass rush should be resolved. Christian Miller and Terrell Lewis — who were supposed to be Alabama’s two best pass-rushers — were able to return against Auburn.
The bad news is that three key contributors — Shaun Dion Hamilton, Dylan Moses and Hootie Jones — remain out with what proved to be season-ending injuries.
Still, Alabama is No. 3 in the country against the run and No. 6 against the pass. The Tide will be fine against a Watson-less Clemson offense.
Advantage: Alabama
Special teams
The specialty units are going to be an underrated matchup in this game.
One of Alabama’s weaknesses over the years has been at kicker. Andy Pappanastos has had his moments, but his 78.9 percent conversion rate on field goals is only good for No. 44 in the country.
That might seem like a good thing for Clemson, but Tigers kicker Alex Spence is worse — like, a lot worse. He is dead last in the country in converting field goals (58.3 percent).
While the tale of two kickers is intriguing, there is another matchup that could warrant more attention.
Clemson’s Ray-Ray McCloud is the nation’s eighth-best punt returner. He’s averaging 12.12 yards per return and has taken one back for a touchdown. Overall, the Tigers are tied at No. 4 for most punt returns of more than 30 yards (3).
On the flip side, Alabama punter JK Scott has been dead set on not allowing guys a chance to get a clean look at a return, which could neutralize what has become a big weapon for the Tigers.
Advantage: Alabama
Talent
From a pure talent standpoint, here’s how the teams stack up according to the starters’ recruiting rankings by 247Sports.com coming out of high school.
ALABAMA’S OFFENSE
5-stars: 5 (Damien Harris, Calvin Ridley, Robert Foster, Jerry Jeudy, Jonah Williams)
4-stars: 4 (Jalen Hurts, Hale Hentges, Ross Pierschbacher, Lester Cotton)
3-stars: 2 (Bradley Bozeman, Matt Womack)
CLEMSON’S DEFENSE
5-stars: 2 (Christian Wilkins, Dexter Lawrence)
4-stars: 6 (Austin Bryant, Clellin Ferrell, Dorian O’Daniel, Tre Lamar, Van Smith, Trayvon Mullen)
3-stars: 2 (Kendall Joseph, Tanner Muse)
2-stars: 1 (Ryan Carter)
ALABAMA’S DEFENSE
5-stars: 4 (Da’Ron Payne, Rashaan Evans, Mack Wilson, Minkah Fitzpatrick)
4-stars: 6 (Raekwon Davis, Isaiah Buggs, Christian Miller, Anfernee Jennings, Anthony Averett, Ronnie Harrison)
Not rated: 1 (Levi Wallace)
CLEMSON’S OFFENSE
5-stars: 2 (Deon Cain, Mitch Hyatt)
4-stars: 5 (Tavien Feaster, Ray-Ray McCloud, Milan Richard, Tyrone Crowder, Sean Pollard)
3-stars: 3 (Kelly Bryant, Taylor Hearn, Justin Falcinelli)
Not rated: 1 (Hunter Renfrow)
Of the 22 starters for Alabama, 19 are either 4- or 5-star prospects. Clemson isn’t far behind with 15 starters in that same range.
Advantage: Alabama
Coaching
This might seem like an obvious choice, but Dabo Swinney’s success against Nick Saban (1-1 with both games decided by five points or less) makes this a lot more of a debate than people realize.
Swinney’s game plan to keep Alabama’s defensive starters on the field for a majority of the game by not making offensive substitutions was brilliant. It ended up winning Clemson the game last year, but that strategy shouldn’t have the same success — Alabama is now prepared for it.
Given the fact that Saban and company have had an entire month to prepare for Clemson, the advantage has to go to Alabama — if only for it being unknown how Swinney can respond to a prepared Alabama team.
Advantage: Alabama
Final say
Obviously, it’s going to be close. These teams have given us some of the best games in college football over the last two years.
With that said, the nod has to go to Alabama due to winning four of the five categories. The one area where Clemson holds an advantage is a significant one, however.
This game is going to be close — very close.
Clint helps cover the SEC West for Saturday Down South. His work can also be found on USA TODAY Sports, The 'Bama Beat podcast and The Bullpen with TonyMac and The Lamb. Previous stops include SEC Country, 247Sports and Touchdown Alabama Magazine.
