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Analytics Report: 3 of 4 current top College Football Playoff teams are final four locks
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Our friends over at FiveThirtyEight, the nation’s leading analytics gurus, have updated their College Football Playoff simulation with three weeks to go in the regular season and they believe three of the final four spots have already been claimed according to probability.
Top-ranked Clemson is more or less a heavy favorite to be the No. 1 seed with a 67 percent chance to win the ACC and reach the Playoff — tops nationally in both categories. Ohio State is second, followed by Alabama and Baylor:
The table reveals that Florida actually has a better shot at winning the SEC than Alabama, largely due to the fact the Gators already have clinched a berth in Atlanta while the Crimson Tide still must play Mississippi State (today) and Auburn in the regular-season finale. LSU’s chances, following last week’s loss in Tuscaloosa, are minimal at just 14 percent.
From FiveThirtyEight:
We project that three of the top four teams from this week will make the playoff, but we expect Baylor to surpass Notre Dame. It’s no guarantee, though; the Bears will play three games against top 15 teams — including a big one against Oklahoma on Saturday — so their playoff odds are only 31 percent.
Another big change in our model since last week: Clemson has a lock on the No. 1 ranking. After gritting out a tough win over Florida State last week, the Tigers’ playoff odds are at 67 percent, with a 17 percent chance of taking the national title. Both numbers top all other teams. Ohio State has the second-highest odds of making the playoffs; the model put them at 56 percent. Alabama, fresh off an impressive win over LSU, has playoff odds of 43 percent.
