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The guessing will finally end Tuesday night. Well, that’s only partly true.
The guessing about the first College Football Playoff ranking ends Tuesday when the CFP committee releases its first Top 25 of the year (7 p.m., ESPN). The guessing about where teams should be ranked will only begin.
It would be the shock of all shocks if anybody but Georgia is ranked No. 1. There is no controversy about the Bulldogs belonging at the top. We have not seen a defense as dominant as the Dawgs in decades. One could argue that, as good as the 2019 LSU offense and 2020 Alabama offense were, the 2021 Georgia defense is on that level.
But what about Alabama? Will the SEC’s only 1-loss team and defending national champion get the love from the CFP voters? The Crimson Tide recovered pretty quickly from their loss at Texas A&M and are again making a case for belonging in the 4-team CFP field, at least for the first rankings. In fact the presumed order of Alabama-Georgia from the first month of the season could well resume with the first CFP rankings, with the order of those 2 teams reversed.
It will also be interesting to see how the committee views Cincinnati, a team bidding to be the first Group of 5 program in the Playoff. But for now, and for the last time, the 10 teams below are in order of the Associated Press poll.
Georgia
Each week we search for superlatives to define Georgia’s defense. How about this one: The Bulldogs allowed just 7 points, a garbage-time touchdown, against Florida. And the Dawgs’ scoring average allowed went up. UGA is allowing 6.6 points per game. The last team to finish a season that low was Oklahoma, which also allowed 6.6 ppg in 1986 on its way to an 11-1 season.
Cincinnati
For the second week in a row, the Bearcats won but did not impress against a 1-win team. Saturday’s 31-12 win over Tulane was not as lopsided as Cincinnati would have hoped (but a wider margin than Oklahoma, which beat the Green Wave by 5 in the opener). How big of a gap will there be between Cincy’s No. 2 AP ranking and the landing spot from the CFP voters?
Alabama
The Crimson Tide took the weekend off in preparation for Saturday’s rivalry meeting against LSU. Alabama is the only FBS team that ranks in the top 15 in total offense (No. 10) and total defense (No. 14). The team also ranks in the nation’s top 10 in 6 other categories including first in 3rd-down conversion percentage (58.3%) and second in scoring offense (45.9 points per game).
Oklahoma
Oklahoma has taken a lot of criticism about winning a lot of close games (including some in this space), but the Sooners have the longest winning streak in the country at 17 games. And freshman Caleb Williams threw for 6 TDs on Saturday against Texas Tech. After a bye this week, the Sooners face a season-ending gauntlet against No. 14 Baylor, Iowa State and No. 11 Oklahoma State.
Michigan State
The Spartans have launched themselves into the CFP debate with their thrilling win over Michigan and Kenneth Walker probably made himself the Heisman Trophy front-runner with a spectacular 197-yard, 5-TD day against the Wolverines. MSU faces 4 Big Ten teams with winning records to close the season (Purdue, Maryland, Ohio State and Penn State) so if this team runs the table, the CFP is a lock.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes got past skidding Penn State to remain unbeaten in B1G play, but some defensive concerns cropped back up. Nittany Lions QB Sean Clifford passed for 361 yards, the 3rd-most in his 33-game college career. The good news for OSU was that, apart from 2 short rushing TDs, Penn State did nothing on the ground (33 yards on 29 carries, a 1.1 ypc average).
Oregon
The Ducks have been winning despite a spate of injuries. And of course the more Ohio State wins, the better Oregon’s victory in Columbus looks. But a major concern is the defense. Despite all-world lineman Kayvon Thibodeaux (who has missed time this season), Oregon is 75th in total defense and allowed at least 17 points to every FBS foe, including 29 to a mediocre Colorado offense on Saturday.
Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish only face 1 team with a winning record from here on (Virginia on Nov. 13) and no ranked teams. So Notre Dame, CFP participants in 2 of the past 3 years, will probably need a ridiculous amount of help to claw into the top 4 (weird thing to say about a Notre Dame team, huh?) in December. The other problem is that the best team the Fighting Irish played, Cincinnati, beat them in South Bend.
Michigan
Saturday’s loss to Michigan State did not knock the Wolverines out of the CFP chase, but it definitely raised some concerns. Michigan had a couple of chances to kill off that game but settled for field goals too often. Jim Harbaugh’s bunch surrendered season highs in points (37) and rushing yards (202) and gave up 5 rushing TDs to one player (Walker) in a game for the first time ever.
Wake Forest
Today, let’s forget about knocking the ACC for what it isn’t and celebrate the Demon Deacons for what they are: History makers. With a 45-7 rout over Duke, Wake Forest is 8-0 for the first time in the program’s 120 seasons. And by rising 3 spots to No. 10, the Demon Deacons are also ranked in the 10 for the first time since the AP poll began in 1936.
Longtime newspaper veteran Jim Tomlin is a copy editor and writer with SaturdayDownSouth.com.
