Ad Disclosure
Arizona State vs. Texas preview: Odds, predictions on Playoff quarterfinal
Published:
Arizona State will battle Texas in the College Football Playoff on New Year’s Day with a spot in the semifinals on the line.
Arizona State will be making its Playoff debut in this contest. The Sun Devils earned a first-round bye thanks to its victory in the Big 12 Championship Game. Texas dispatched Clemson in the first round of the College Football Playoff and is a big favorite in this matchup against Arizona State.
Here’s a breakdown of the betting lines and matchups for this game followed by a few predictions:
Arizona State vs. Texas betting odds
Here are the latest betting odds for this game, via DraftKings:
Spread: Texas -12 (-108) | Arizona State +13 (-112)
Total: Over 51 (-110) | Under 51 (-110)
New Customers: Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly! DraftKings States: AZ, CO, CT, DC, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, LA, ME, MD, MA, MI, NH, NJ, NY, NC, OH, OR, PA, TN, VT, VA, WV, WY
GET THE APPWhen Texas has the ball
Texas’ offense has not quite met expectations for much of the 2024 season, although the Longhorns have been trending up as of late. Texas’ running game was excellent in its first-round victory over Clemson, amassing 292 rushing yards in a 38-24 win.
Quinn Ewers has endured a bit of an up-and-down season that was marred by injuries. That trend more or less continued against Clemson as he completed 17-of-24 passes for 201 yards, 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Not great, but not bad either. He’s often been in a game manager role as the Texas running game and defense have been able to control any game — except for the 2 games against Georgia.
Something to watch, though: Ewers’ turnover issues. He’s only thrown 10 picks this season, but Pro Football Focus data suggests he’s been fortunate. PFF has him with 17 turnover-worthy plays. He ranks tied for 7th-worth nationally (min. 400 drop-backs) with a turnover-worthy play rate of 3.9%. That means he’s putting the ball in harm’s way roughly once every 25 pass attempts.
On the other side, Arizona State was one of the Big 12’s best defenses in terms of creating interceptions. The Sun Devils ranked 2nd this year with 15 through 13 contests. They also ranked 3rd in the conference with 64 passes defended.
Beyond that, there’s not many reasons to believe Arizona State’s defense can hang tough. The Sun Devils rank 56th nationally in Game on Paper’s scheduled-adjusted EPA-per-play allowed metric.
The advanced metrics show Arizona State wasn’t particularly good against the run or the pass this season. Arizona State’s defense is 97th in pass defense success rate and 59th in rush defense success rate, per Game on Paper. EPA numbers are only slightly better in both categories. If Arizona State’s defense is going to put up a fight in this game, it’s almost certainly going to be because Texas turned the ball over multiple times.
When Arizona State has the ball
Arizona State’s offense revolves around 1 player: running back Cam Skattebo.
ASU’s reliance on Skattebo is borderline historic. He gets the ball on 40% of Arizona State’s offensive plays and averages north of 6.9 yards per touch. Since 2018, only 2 other players can say that: Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty (2024) and Wisconsin’s Jonathan Taylor (2018). Skattebo enjoyed an exceptionally high volume of touches as a runner and in the passing game.
Arizona State’s passing game was efficient this season, but it was not heavily used. The Sun Devils had a pass play rate of just 40.2%. ASU finished the regular season ranked 15th nationally in EPA-per-pass, according to Game on Paper. Quarterback Sam Leavitt ranks 9th in the country with a passer efficiency rating of 159.5.
However, there is some reason to doubt the Arizona State passing attack against the Longhorns. For one thing, Texas ranks 2nd nationally in pass defense efficiency rating entering this contest, but the Sun Devils also will be without injured leading receiver Jordyn Tyson.
Arizona State will want to be careful to not get behind the chains too often. Leavitt’s passer efficiency rating dropped to just 113.7 when faced with 3rd-and-6 or longer against power-conference competition. That ranked 43rd nationally amongst QBs with at least 25 attempts under those circumstances.
Texas’ defense will certainly be the best Arizona State has faced this season. The Longhorns arguably have the best secondary in the country, although it’s worth noting that Clemson quarterback Cade Klubnik did hurt them to the tune of 336 yards in the first round.
Of course, the more relevant part of Texas’ defense for this matchup will be its ability to stop the run. UT allowed just 3.1 yards per carry during the regular season, although Skattebo will arguably be the best — and most versatile — running back the Longhorns have faced in 2024.
Since UT’s defense is so good against the run, it might be worth Arizona State’s while to get Skattebo more involved in the passing game. Skattebo averages north of 42 receiving yards per game and over 13 yards per reception. He is ASU’s top receiver now that Tyson is out.
Betting the spread in Arizona State vs. Texas
If you like Texas, the best number comes from DraftKings at -12 (-108). If you’d rather bet the underdog, Arizona State +13 (-110) is available at ESPN BET.
I like Texas as long as this number stays under 14. The Longhorns have been far from perfect offensively this season, but they showed enough vs. Clemson to prove they may be peaking at the right time. As potent as Skattebo is, I think Texas will be able to limit him better than any Big 12 defense he faced this season. If that happens, Arizona State has to play from behind, which is not a strength for the Sun Devils considering their offensive profile.
PICK: Texas -12 (-108 via DraftKings)
Betting the total in Arizona State vs. Texas
If you like the over, Caesars has the best price at 51.5 (-110). Under bettors can get a better number at FanDuel at 51.5 (-112).
I prefer the over in this game. I think Texas will be able to spring some long runs and I expect Ewers to have a solid day as well. Arizona State will surely score some points, too, and I expect the Sun Devils will have to throw the ball at bit more often than they’re used to. That should lead to points one way or the other.
PICK: Over 51.5 (-110 via Caesars)
Prop bet pick in Arizona State vs. Texas
Sam Leavitt over 173.5 passing yards (-114 via FanDuel). This strikes me as a surprisingly low total, even given Texas’s excellent pass defense numbers. Arizona State’s passing offense was very efficient all season long and Kenny Dillingham has one of the best offensive minds in the sport. Leavitt has gone over 200 passing yards in 4 consecutive games and I think the game script may force him to throw the ball even more often than usual in this game.
States: MA, NJ, PA, VA, MD, WV, TN, LA, KS, KY, NC, AZ, CO, IA, WY, IL, IN, OH, MI, NY
21+ and present in a state with legal sports gaming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.
Spenser is a news editor for Saturday Down South and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.
