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Each week, we’ll take a look at the credible and not-so-credible threats to the SEC’s playoff aspirations, based on the now-retired Homeland Security Advisory System. (Here’s a longer explanation.)
SEC fans celebrated the Big Ten dumpster fire this weekend while playing glorified exhibition games.
Yes, the death of the BCS has done nothing to squash conference trash talk.
But after a shaky first week by a few of the favorites in the Pac-12 and SEC, the two conferences reaffirmed what will hold true all season: it would take unusual circumstances for their champion to miss the College Football Playoff.
Currently the strongest contenders for the two available spots include three teams from the ACC or Big 12 and one Independent.
RELATED: Kirk Herbstreit drops one SEC elite from his eye-test CFB Playoff teams
Scanning The Good Guys: SEC teams went 12-1 this weekend. (Poor Vanderbilt.) Georgia didn’t play, but Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M and LSU barely broke a sweat. Everyone is discounting South Carolina (1-1) after two games, but the Gamecocks could rejoin the SEC East race by beating UGA on Saturday.
Now for the terrorists.
THREAT LEVEL: SEVERE
Severe risk of terrorist attacks.
Oregon: Stanford, with a power running game and a defense that smacked around the pastel jerseys, spent the last two seasons as the Ducks’ kryptonite. A similar Michigan State team then toppled the Cardinal in the Rose Bowl eight months ago. Granted, the Spartans lost cornerback Darqueze Dennard, among others, from the defense. Down 27-18 in the third quarter after 20 consecutive Michigan State points, Marcus Mariota and company rallied for four unanswered touchdowns. Recent Oregon teams have folded in those circumstances.
Oklahoma: Entering the season, everything Sooners-related centered around whether Trevor Knight would approximate his Sugar Bowl performance or return to the potential-laden but lackluster outputs from earlier in 2013. Knight has played pretty well against two easy opponents, but Bob Stoops so far has proven there’s more to this OU team, which is one of the most balanced Top 10 programs in the country right now. The SEC (via Tennessee) gets to figure out just how good the 2014 version of this team is Saturday.
THREAT LEVEL: HIGH
High risk of terrorist attacks.
Florida State: The Seminoles haven’t done anything to relinquish the No. 1 overall ranking. Heck, Jameis Winston completed 16-of-17 first-half passes against The Citadel. But FSU is 0-2 against the spread this year, reflective of two less-than-dominant performances after wiping the field with everyone but Boston College last season in the 13 games leading to the BCS Championship. The offense is going to put up points and the Seminoles still are clear favorites in the ACC. It probably is hard for the team to get motivated for FCS opponents. But defensive losses to the NFL, the departure of coordinator Jeremy Pruitt and the lack of crispness make this team look a little less scary thus far.
Baylor: Falling Heisman candidate Bryce Petty missed the game against Northwestern State due to a back injury. But backup Seth Russell torched the FCS opponent for 438 passing yards and accounted for six touchdowns in the 70-6 win. We’re seeing this more and more frequently with backup or new quarterbacks in prolific offensive systems (Texas A&M, Auburn). With Texas struggling, the Nov. 8 game at Oklahoma looks more like a College Football Playoff semifinal every day.
USC: The Trojans ended the longest home winning streak in the country (Stanford, 17 games). Stanford outgained USC by more than 100 yards, missed two field goals and scrapped a sure chance at another due to a fourth-quarter penalty with the game tied at 10. But the Cardinal are no easy out, and the Trojans’ 13-10 victory puts them a rung ahead of UCLA and Arizona State in the Pac-12 South right now. Any Pac-12 division favorite is a high-level threat this year.
THREAT LEVEL: ELEVATED
Significant risk of terrorist attacks.
Notre Dame: Everett Golson is back. That was the team’s headline before the academic investigation hit just before the season. The Irish lost a few players, including leading receiver DaVaris Daniels, and most media members downgraded them at least a little. The schedule is brutal — five more games against ranked opponents, including Florida State and USC on the road — but this team opened some eyes with its 31-0 win against Michigan.
THREAT LEVEL: GUARDED
General risk of terrorist attacks.
UCLA: Unlike Florida State (and Alabama, to a degree), the Bruins haven’t deserved the “yeah, but they won, and they’ll come around” treatment. After relying on a stingy defense to survive its leaky offensive line at Virginia, Brett Hundley threw for nearly 400 yards against Memphis. But the same defense allowed 35 points to a team picked to finish seventh in the 11-team American Athletic Conference. The Bruins are a highly-ranked unbeaten Pac-12 team with a legitimate Heisman candidate. They’re worth monitoring. But for now they look too flawed to survive conference play.
THREAT LEVEL: LOW
Low risk of terrorist attacks.
Big Ten: Nebraska and Iowa avoided embarrassing losses, but not embarrassment. Northwestern fell to Northern Illinois. Purdue lost by 21 to Central Michigan. What’s that, you say? Those teams aren’t the best in the Big Ten? The Big Ten West, what with Wisconsin losing to LSU in Week 1, isn’t the real threat? Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan all lost this weekend as well. It’s irresponsible to say the conference has zero shot at a CFP bid, but odds are against any of those teams winning out. And even if Michigan State or Wisconsin does, it will need lots of attrition from other conferences.
UMass: The Minutemen are the scourge of the MAC. After going 2-22 under Charley Molnar in 2012-13, the team fired him and announced it is leaving the conference after 2015. UMass remains a team without a home, with some calling for the program to return to the FCS level. Meanwhile, the team is 0-2 again after managing to flub a 31-20 third-quarter lead against lowly Colorado. Oh, and the Minutemen are three-score underdogs against Vanderbilt this week. Let that sink in.
Troy: Once the clear third FBS peg in the state of Alabama, the Trojans may be fifth now behind South Alabama. Troy got hounded by the Crimson Tide’s sister school UAB, then allowed Duke to close out the game with a 31-3 run. Enjoy Abilene Christian, Trojans fans. Georgia will inflict more pain Sept. 20.
Southern Methodist: Oh well, Mustangs. You lost 45-0 at Baylor. Bad beat. It happens. … Wait. You also lost 43-6 at North Texas? And you host Texas A&M on Sept. 20 in your next game? Never mind. You’re doomed.
An itinerant journalist, Christopher has moved between states 11 times in seven years. Formally an injury-prone Division I 800-meter specialist, he now wanders the Rockies in search of high peaks.
