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Gus Malzahn’s days on the Plains appear to be numbered.
Less than two years after Malzahn’s Tigers suffered a heartbreaking 34-31 loss to Florida State in the BCS Championship Game, there are reports indicating that he might be coaching for his job in 2016.
There are also indications that Malzahn’s one-year experiment with Will Muschamp as Auburn’s defensive coordinator has ended as well.
Under Malzahn, the Tigers have regressed, going from 12-2 in 2013 to 8-5 last year and now 6-6 entering their projected Birmingham Bowl matchup. But things could be worse, like they were when Auburn finished 3-9 in 2012 in Gene Chizik’s last season before Malzahn replaced him. Nevertheless, as bad as things have been for the Tigers in 2015, there are reasons Auburn can legitimately hope for a spot in next year’s SEC Championship Game:
- Auburn’s group of running backs could be the best in the conference. The Tigers’ top four rushers — Peyton Barber, Jovon Robinson, Roc Thomas and Kerryon Johnson — all have eligibility left and are slated to return. Barber has been the workhorse in 2015, leading Auburn in carries (226), yards (976) and touchdowns (13), but Robinson has come on strong the last seven games of the season, averaging a team-best 5.7 yards per attempt. It will be interesting to see who gets most of the carries in 2016, when Auburn’s deep running backs corps could be the team’s strongest asset.
- The Tigers have a lot of experience returning on both lines. Even if oft-injured defensive end Carl Lawson takes his talents to the NFL, Auburn has other D-linemen with eligibility left, starting with Montravius Adams, Dontavius Russell and Byron Cowart. Potential returnees Devaroe Lawrence, Maurice Swain and Raashed Kennion could bolster the group as well. Led by Austin Golson and Alex Kozan, next year’s offensive line also looks promising. Braden Smith, Will Adams, Avery Young and Mike Horton could bolster the right side of the line while Shon Coleman and Robert Leff might man the left tackle spot again.
- Half of Auburn’s secondary seems set. Free safety Johnathan Rudy Ford has had an outstanding junior season, leading the Tigers and ranking second in the SEC with 113 tackles. He was also second in the conference with an average of 28.7 yards on his 14 kickoff returns. If Muschamp leaves, maybe the new defensive coordinator will be able to persuade Ford to hold off on the NFL for a year. Freshman cornerback Carlton Davis led Auburn and finished tied for ninth in the SEC with 3 interceptions and added 45 tackles and 8 pass break-ups. If Ford doesn’t return, The Tigers will build their defensive backfield around Davis.
- Daniel Carlson is only a sophomore. Arguably the nation’s top kicker and a finalist for the Lou Groza Award, Carlson has been Auburn’s biggest bright spot. His recently snapped streak of 16 straight games with a field goal is a school record, and he has matched the Tigers’ single-season mark with 22 field goals. With games at Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama in 2016, Auburn could be in line for a fair share of close games, and having a kicker as reliable as Carlson could be the difference between several wins and losses, which is huge in a conference as competitive as the SEC.
- The Tigers’ recruiting class is ranked 11th in the country. That’s according to Yahoo! Sports, and that’s the good news. But the bad news for Auburn is that the following SEC recruiting classes are ranked higher: LSU (2nd), Ole Miss (4th), Georgia (5th), Alabama (6th) and Florida (8th).
With one game left in this Auburn season, it’s time file 2015 away. The best the Tigers can do is win their bowl game and finish 7-6. Malzahn has a lot of work to do to get his Tigers back to Atlanta next year, including potentially replacing Muschamp and finding a new quarterback if Jeremy Johnson or Sean White isn’t the answer.
But he does have some positive elements at his disposal. How he uses them will determine whether he returns to the Georgia Dome or ends up looking for work before he has a chance to get back there.
Stan Chrapowicki is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football, Alabama and Auburn.
