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After opening the 1st season under head coach Hugh Freeze with 3 consecutive victories, the Auburn Tigers have yet to return to the win column. Four games later, the Tigers find themselves in a dicey situation in returning to bowl eligibility after failing to do so last season, breaking a 9-year run.
The Tigers haven’t missed bowl games in back-to-back years since 1998-99. In addition, they have had losing seasons in each of the past 2 years. Auburn hasn’t had 3 consecutive losing seasons since 1975-77.
But 1st things 1st: Freeze must figure out how to get the Tigers back to their winning ways. They’ve been oh so close against some of the best teams they’ve played, including a narrow 27-20 loss to No. 1-ranked and 2-time defending national champions Georgia. Last Saturday, they fought a ranked Ole Miss team down to the wire before falling, 28-21.
Moral victories won’t get it done. The Tigers have 5 games left on the schedule and need to turn things around in a hurry. After a 3-4 start, 0-4 in SEC play, here’s where Auburn will finish the 2023 season.
Week 9: vs. Mississippi State
The Skinny: The Tigers have twice as many victories as losses (62-31-3) against the Bulldogs in this series, but they have dropped the past 2, including last year’s 39-33 overtime loss.
But it’s a new year and a new era on The Plains under Freeze. With Auburn looking to become bowl eligible, expect a fierce battle from this scrappy bunch.
At the midway point in the season, Auburn ranks last in the SEC in scoring offense, averaging 27.7 points per game. It looks to get right against a Mississippi State team that ranks 11th in the conference in total defense.
Prediction: Auburn 28, Mississippi State 23
Week 10: at Vanderbilt
The Skinny: Auburn has had trouble recently with the Commodores on their home field. Vanderbilt has won the past 2 meetings in Nashville. Auburn won the last meeting, a 23-16 triumph at Jordan-Hare in 2016 that evened the all-time series at 21-21-1.
Though the Commodores are viewed as the bottom of the SEC, Auburn cannot take them lightly, as the past couple of games on Vandy’s home field have indicated. At the halfway point in the season, Vanderbilt is 13th in the SEC in scoring offense and is yielding 34.4 points per game.
The Tigers should have no trouble winning this game on the road, but only if Freeze has them in the right frame of mind.
Prediction: Auburn 31, Vanderbilt 21
Week 11: at Arkansas
The Skinny: The Tigers have had pretty good luck recently in Fayetteville, winning the past 3 games there by 15, 41 and 32 points. However, the Razorbacks won last year’s meeting, a 41-27 decision at Jordan-Hare. Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson threw for 234 yards and 1 touchdown and ran for another 45 yards and 2 scores.
Containing the Hogs’ QB will be the key. Do that, and Arkansas is void of playmakers who can pick up the slack.
If not, Auburn will spend the day chasing after Arkansas’ star player, and it could be a long one for the Tigers’ defense.
Prediction: Arkansas 24, Auburn 23
Week 12: vs. New Mexico State
The Skinny: The Tigers go out of conference to host the Aggies. The teams have met 3 times, all at Jordan-Hare and all Auburn victories. The games have not been competitive: Auburn has won by margins of 35, 35 and 41 points.
But this might be the Aggies’ best team in decades. In his 2nd season as head coach, former Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill led New Mexico State to a 7-6 record, its 2nd winning season since 2003. The 7 victories tied for it most in a season since it won 8 games in 1965. After 8 games this season, the Aggies have 5 wins, including 3 in 4 C-USA games.
But this is a game where the Tigers should take care of business at home and perhaps become bowl-eligible, if they haven’t already done so.
Prediction: Auburn 33, New Mexico State 17
Week 13: vs. Alabama
The Skinny: This will be Freeze’s introduction to the Iron Bowl. He’ll have the Tigers ready for it. But will the offense be ready for an Alabama defense that, after the first 7 games of this season, has allowed an average of only 16 points per game? Among SEC defenses, only Georgia (14) has allowed fewer.
That’s not good news for an Auburn offense that in its first 3 conference games averaged 16 points per outing. Maybe by then, Freeze will have come up with a solution to the Tigers’ shortcomings at quarterback.
Or maybe Alabama’s defense will continue to mature and only get better. We’ll have to wait and see. But at the halfway point in the season, Auburn has shown no signs that it is ready to break its 3-game losing streak to the Tide.
Prediction: Alabama 23, Auburn 13
Glenn Sattell is an award-winning freelance writer for Saturday Down South.
