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Here’s a position-by-position breakdown of what to expect for Saturday’s big showdown in Auburn, Ala.:
QUARTERBACKS – Mississippi State: This is the easiest position to evaluate. Jeremy Johnson had just 141 total yards (100 passing and 41 rushing) in last Saturday’s 45-21 loss at LSU in what was his third straight game with multiple turnovers, and Tuesday Gus Malzahn announced that he would be replaced by redshirt freshman Sean White this week. White, who has never taken a collegiate snap, passed for 2,679 yards, and 30 TDs during his senior year for the University School at Nova South in Fort Lauderdale, FL. The former Elite 11 Camp MVP was also MVP of the Under Armour All-America Game in 2014. Meanwhile White’s counterpart, Dak Prescott, has been solid, completing 66-of-101 (65.3%) of his passes for 799 yards, 5 TDs and no interceptions. He’s a big reason why the Bulldogs could have been 3-0 at this point had they converted a makeable field goal against LSU two weeks ago.
RUNNING BACKS – Auburn: Peyton Barber has been Auburn’s workhorse back this season with 274 yards and a touchdown on 54 carries. LSU held him to just 34 yards on seven attempts, but Barber gets the edge here over Ashton Shumpert (27 carries, 123 yards, TD), but really by default when you consider that Prescott is pretty much Mississippi State’s top running option most of the time. Roc Thomas is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry for the Tigers while Brandon Holloway, Nick Fitzgerald and Dontavian Lee have all shown flashes in limited touches for the Bulldogs.
WIDE RECEIVERS, TIGHT ENDS – Mississippi State: The Bulldogs have four pass catchers with more than 100 yards receiving so far, led by De’Runnya Wilson (11 catches, 158 yards, 1 TD) and Fred Ross (15 receptions, 153 yards). MSU’s Donald Gray has a receiving touchdown and has averaged an outstanding 35 yards on his four catches, and teammate Fred Brown has added six grabs for 115 yards. In addition, Gus Walley and Justin Johnson — the Bulldogs’ top two tight ends — have combined for 13 catches, 113 yards and 2 TDs. Meanwhile, Auburn’s top pass-catcher in terms of yards per reception has been Roc Thomas (4 catches, 109 yards, TD), but he comes out the backfield so he doesn’t count. Ricardo Louis (14 catches, 132 yards, TD) has been fine, but D’haquille Williams (7 catches, 81 yards, TD) still needs to get the ball more. Maybe White will change that this week. Melvin Ray leads the Tigers with two touchdown catches.
OFFENSIVE LINE – Mississippi State: The Bulldogs earn the slight edge here but only because their running backs are averaging 5.7 yards per carry compared to Auburn’s 4.4. Mississippi State’s front has surrendered three sacks compared to Auburn’s five.
DEFENSIVE LINE – Mississippi State: As if their quarterback situation wasn’t bad enough, Malzahn also announced on Tuesday that defensive end Carl Lawson would be out longer than originally thought with his hip injury. That’s really bad news for arguably the Tigers’ best defensive player. Auburn also has the worst rushing defense in the SEC, and it’s not even close as the Tigers are allowing 270 yards on the ground per game, 50 more than the next-worst mark by the Gamecocks. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is yielding 171.3 rushing yards per game (11th in the SEC) and 3.86 yards per attempt (tied for ninth). Lawson has one of Auburn’s six sacks; defensive end A.J. Jefferson leads the Bulldogs with 2.5 sacks and has added 18 total tackles.
LINEBACKERS – Auburn: As expected, returnees Cassanova McKinzy (team-leading 2.0 sacks to go with 28 total tackles, including four for loss) and Kris Frost (26 total tackles, one for loss) have been solid for the Tigers and get the slight edge here. For MSU, Richie Brown (26 total tackles, one sack, one interception) has been solid, and Beniquez Brown (14 total tackles, two for loss and a sack) has chipped in as well.
SECONDARY – Push: Based solely on statistics, it’s clear that Auburn defensive back Johnathan Ford is a much better tackler than talker. Against LSU’s Leonard Fournette last week, he was neither, but he is still second in the SEC in total tackles with 34. He leads a secondary that is allowing 172.7 passing yards per game, good for fourth in the conference. Ford and Tray Matthews lead the Tigers with one interception apiece. Led by Will Redmond (one interception, 15 total tackles) and Jamal Peters (7 tackles, 1.5 for loss and a sack), Mississippi State is third in the league in passing defense, yielding 164.3 yards per game.
Stan Chrapowicki is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football, Alabama and Auburn.
