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Offense (Oklahoma-Clemson) or defense (Alabama-Michigan State), which will prevail in playoff?
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Alabama’s 29-15 victory in last week’s SEC Championship Game wasn’t pretty but it was impressive. When your team can hold the SEC East champion — even an offense as inept as Florida’s — to 180 total yards, including 15 on the ground, you have a team whose defense is tailor-made to win a championship.
Of the four teams in this year’s College Football Playoff, Alabama’s defense is clearly the best, and it will be the deciding factor as the Tide pursues its 16th national title.
The strongest part of Bama’s defense is its front seven, so much so that it’s like a quick-strike offense, just in reverse. Crimson Tide opponents have converted just 28 percent of their third downs this season — which has meant a lot of three-and-outs and more possessions for Alabama’s offense, which is mostly, but not entirely, Derrick Henry and a cloud of dust.
Jacob Coker has completed 65.7 percent of his passes for 17 touchdowns, eight interceptions and 2,489 yards. And over his past five games, the senior has posted a completion percentage at least 60 percent and has thrown only one pick over that span — otherwise known as really efficient game management.
Of course, he has handed it to Henry 90 times over the past two games, which made Nick Saban very happy.
Clemson and Oklahoma present similar problems — on offense: outstanding quarterbacks, dangerous primary targets at wide receiver and two of the nation’s best running backs.
Alabama has the best run defense in the country, allowing just 74 yards a game, so it can neutralize the Tigers’ Wayne Gallman (1,332 yards, 10 TDs) or the Sooners’ Samaje Perine (1,291 yards, 15 TDs).
Between the QBs, Deshaun Watson is a more viable running threat than Baker Mayfield, but the Tide has the personnel to contain the Clemson signal caller and Heisman Trophy candidate.
Middle linebacker Reggie Ragland, an excellent run stuffer, can also shadow Watson if Alabama gets Clemson in the national title game. But he’s just one of several elements that make this defense so great.
With his team-leading 12.5 tackles for loss and 10 sacks, Johnathan Allen is the perfect pass rusher. A’Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed have combined for 95 tackles — including eight for a loss — so they’re tough against the run and the pass. In Tim Williams, Alabama has an outstanding pass rusher from the Jack linebacker spot who has 11.5 tackles for loss, including 9.5 sacks.
Alabama’s pass defense is good, but not great. The Tide is fifth in the SEC, allowing 184.2 yards per game. However, the secondary is impressive nonetheless, with ball hawks to boot. Strong safety Eddie Jackson shares the SEC lead in interceptions (5) and pick-sixes (2). Minkah Fitzpatrick has also returned two INTs for touchdowns from his Star defensive back spot.
Cyrus Jones has broken up seven passes, and fellow cornerback Marlon Humphrey has made 40 tackles, while free safety Geno Matias-Smith leads Crimson Tide defensive backs with 57 stops.
The secondary has allowed big plays — Florida scored its only touchdown on a 46-yard pass — but just 13 touchdown passes.
It will be interesting to see how they handle Clemson’s Artavis Scott or Oklahoma’s Sterling Shepard.
Not only do the Sooners and Tigers have similarly talented personnel on offense, they have similar up-tempo attacks, with both averaging at least 38.5 points and more than 500 yards per game.
And while Alabama surrendered season highs in points (37) and total yards (433) to Ole Miss in its only loss, the Rebels — who have had the best offense in the SEC this season — scored 24 of those points off five Crimson Tide turnovers.
So if it weren’t for ball-security issues, it’s possible that Bama would be undefeated and that its defensive numbers would be even better. And even though it was only one game, the loss to Mississippi should serve the Tide well in its preparations for a potential national-title matchup against the pass-happy ACC champion or the Big 12 champ.
So Clemson, Oklahoma and Michigan State can try to test Alabama if they want, but they will do so knowing they’ll be facing the nation’s top defense, which has been built by Nick Saban and outgoing coordinator Kirby Smart.
Realizing that, those teams’ best offense might be an opportunistic defense that forces turnovers. But the Tide is plus-7 on the season in that department.
Bottom line: The Tigers, Sooners and Spartans might want to go back to the drawing board and re-sketch what they think is a potential championship blueprint.
Alabama’s defense is that good.
Stan Chrapowicki is a contributing writer for Saturday Down South. He covers SEC football, Alabama and Auburn.
